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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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Well, getting some privacy has become more difficult.
Jess (youngest still at home)was always out, nearly every night. Gym, training or just hanging with her friends. Plenty of opportunity for sexy time while on my R n R.
Not anymore, she's always home!
_________________
Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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What'sinaname 
Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free
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| Tannin wrote: | | What'sinaname wrote: | | ... these pretend allergies like asthma and peanuts. Should just force feed every kid peanut sandwiches for a whole school year...bingo...no more peanut allergies. |
Correct!
Look, there are two possibilities. (I have no idea which one of the two is correct, by the way.)
Either these allergies are indeed pretend ones, in which case you are correct, force-feeding will cure them all and everyone will like peanuts.
OR these allergies are in fact real, in which case you are correct, force-feeding will kill them all and the survivors will like peanuts. |
That's brilliant Sir!!!! |
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What'sinaname
Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free
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| Tannin wrote: | Gobsmancked ...
Carnival, the cruise operator (ir)responsible for, among other terrible things, the Ruby Princess disaster - 10% of Australia's Coronavirus cases and a number of deaths come from that one ship alone - the owner and operator of those vast, awful cruise ships under many different brands including Princess, Cunard, and P&O, Carnival, the walking financial basket case with its name ruined forever, with its ships rusting at the anchor or roaming the globe looking for a country stupid enough to let them dock, Carnival the largest operator in an industry facing ever-increasing blowback from overcrowded destination cities tired of being hammered by huge numbers of tourists ... yes that Carnival ...
... is asking investors to give it $6,000,000,000
Carnival is asking for $3 billion in bonds secured against its ships (which will be worthless when Carnival can't get passengers because the public fears cruise ships), $1.75 billion in convertible bonds (i.e., not really secured against anything - they convert to shares in the failing company if the company is failing), and the rest in equity (draw your own conclusion).
$6,000,000,000. The mind boggles.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/31/carnival-cruises-seeks-6bn-funding-amid-coronavirus-fallout |
I remember post Sep 11 a lot of people saying they will never fly again and never fly overseas. Short term pain, but once everyone forgot, people jumped on planes again and flew around the world.
I remember the terrorist attacks in Kuta - Australian vowed never to go to Bali again...but a few years later, Australian tourism to Bali was at record numbers.
Same will happen with Carnival. In a few years time, COVID will be forgotten and cruise lines will be full of passengers.
As Buffet said, be fearful when everyone is greedy and greedy when everyone is fearful.
So now is the time to invest and accumulate investments in cruise lines and airlines. |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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21: A person has died of COVID-19 at Orange Base Hospital in the Central West of NSW.
The person had previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 before being admitted to Orange Base Hospital where they died today.
The hospital said no further details would be provided at the family's request.
It brings the number of deaths in Australia to 21.
No further details. WTF? If they were on a boat, say so. If they were in a nursing home say so. Tell us their age. How can these things actually be suppressed at "the family's request"? There is no need for precise details to be given but basic information cannot be secret. |
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What'sinaname
Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free
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Why are shops reducing hours and why are we reducing public transport services.
That just creates congestion.
Retailers should be employing more and opening 24/7
_________________
Fighting against the objectification of woman. |
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Tannin 
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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| What'sinaname wrote: | As Buffet said, be fearful when everyone is greedy and greedy when everyone is fearful.
So now is the time to invest and accumulate investments in cruise lines and airlines. |
Well yes. And no. Now is a really bad time to invest in either. Right now they are cheap, but not nearly cheap enough. All will go through a prolonged casgflow crises. None will make a profit anytime soon. Many will go bankrupt. Most of the others will have highly dilutive capital raisings.
So even if you luck out and pick a winner (missing the others who go broke or are sold for essentially nothing to clear their debts), chances are your shareholding will be diluted down to very little be the cap raising.
Your smart move here is wait. Wait until we are well into the season for travel and related bankruptcies. Wait till they are dropping like flies. Far enough into the season to have a pretty clear view of the likely survivors. That's the time to buy. We don't know when that will be yet. My guess is three to six months, maybe the end of this year. But I'm only guessing. We will have to wait and see.
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�Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
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Tannin
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | No further details. WTF? If they were on a boat, say so. If they were in a nursing home say so. Tell us their age. How can these things actually be suppressed at "the family's request"? There is no need for precise details to be given but basic information cannot be secret. |
Exactly. This government has a mania for secrecy. They are STILL refusing to release the advice that they claim is guiding their actions.
_________________
�Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
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What'sinaname
Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free
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| Tannin wrote: |
Well yes. And no. Now is a really bad time to invest in either. Right now they are cheap, but not nearly cheap enough. All will go through a prolonged casgflow crises. None will make a profit anytime soon. Many will go bankrupt. Most of the others will have highly dilutive capital raisings.
So even if you luck out and pick a winner (missing the others who go broke or are sold for essentially nothing to clear their debts), chances are your shareholding will be diluted down to very little be the cap raising.
Your smart move here is wait. Wait until we are well into the season for travel and related bankruptcies. Wait till they are dropping like flies. Far enough into the season to have a pretty clear view of the likely survivors. That's the time to buy. We don't know when that will be yet. My guess is three to six months, maybe the end of this year. But I'm only guessing. We will have to wait and see. |
Exactly...when I say now, I don't mean today, I mean now as in during this time of fear and panic. The market will collapse shortly when the USA realise they won't be back to business after Easter. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| What'sinaname wrote: | Why are shops reducing hours and why are we reducing public transport services.
That just creates congestion.
Retailers should be employing more and opening 24/7 |
In the case of the supermarket chains, I think they've taken advantage of the fact that many people are now available to shop during what used to be ordinary business hours, so they're cutting their wages cost. It is, of course, a disaster for a variety of reasons - including the social distancing problem you raise and the fact that businesses are laying off workers in droves because they can't sustain their workforces, yet here we have just about the only part of the retail goods sector that is making money reducing hours to boost profits - but, hey, that's capitalism for you.
In the case of public transport, you can thank Kennett. There have been a couple of modest articles in the press about the private companies that sell our public transport network services back to us being concerned that they weren't making money. This was obvious, I would have thought. I started walking to work in February, when it became obvious to me that it wasn't possible to ride a tram safely in the present circumstances because of over-crowding. From a policy perspective, I don't suppose the State wants to bail them out (since the Government would likely prefer to reduce movement, rather than make it more attractive) - subject, of course, to whatever financial indemnities from the Government might arise under the contracts that govern these operations.
Last edited by Pies4shaw on Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:23 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Tannin wrote: | | Pies4shaw wrote: | | No further details. WTF? If they were on a boat, say so. If they were in a nursing home say so. Tell us their age. How can these things actually be suppressed at "the family's request"? There is no need for precise details to be given but basic information cannot be secret. |
Exactly. This government has a mania for secrecy. They are STILL refusing to release the advice that they claim is guiding their actions. |
To be fair, I think this is a NSW State decision, rather than a Commonwealth one. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | https://www.policyforum.net/sums-germs-and-fear/
In this instance, the authors have provided quite specific numerical predictions, so it will be possible to test their analysis by Wednesday or Thursday of this week:
The data tells us that for countries in the earlier phase of this pandemic, such as Australia, the number of confirmed cases, which undoubtedly underestimates the rate of infection, is doubling every few days. In Australia, the infection rate began by doubling roughly every four days, and is now doubling every seven days.
Australia had about 2,000 confirmed cases on 24 March. Given rates of infection and changes in growth, our spread model forecast of infections made on 27 March for the 29 March ranged from 3,950 to 4,460.
The actual reported number on 29 March was 3,984, near the low end of that range. It is important to note that the daily growth rate has fallen from 27 per cent on 12 March to about 9.5 per cent on 29 March. Our forecast for 6pm on 1 April now ranges from 5,080 to 5,970 cases, with 5,220 most likely, and for 2 April the range is 5,510 to 6,835, with 5,715 most likely. |
Without wishing to be the bearer of some less unhappy news, it looks as if the reported cases number right now is below the bottom of the range the authors estimated for 6 pm today. That was 5,080. The present figure appears to be 4,862. Perhaps the strategies being put in place are having some useful effect. Alternatively, maybe this outcome is because Border Control hasn't let any new cruise passengers into the country since Monday. |
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David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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| Skids wrote: | Well, getting some privacy has become more difficult.
Jess (youngest still at home)was always out, nearly every night. Gym, training or just hanging with her friends. Plenty of opportunity for sexy time while on my R n R.
Not anymore, she's always home! |
Do what we do and chuck her in front of ABC Kids for an hour.  (There may be a slight hitch in this plan if she happens to not be five years old.)
_________________
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| David wrote: | | Skids wrote: | Well, getting some privacy has become more difficult.
Jess (youngest still at home)was always out, nearly every night. Gym, training or just hanging with her friends. Plenty of opportunity for sexy time while on my R n R.
Not anymore, she's always home! |
Do what we do and chuck her in front of ABC Kids for an hour. :lol: (There may be a slight hitch in this plan if she happens to not be five years old.) |
An hour? bragging or dreaming,
Skids best bet is to give her his credit card and tell her to do a bottleshop run 
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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Stui, you are familiar with the concept of foreplay are you not?
_________________
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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What'sinaname
Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free
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| David wrote: | | Stui, you are familiar with the concept of foreplay are you not? |
Foreplay is putting on ABC Kids. |
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