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TaylorMade
Joined: 11 Feb 2019
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| K wrote: | | TaylorMade wrote: | ...
So do we think its a good bet K ? Its not bad imo have the odds dropped to 14-1?
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Well, on H2H lines, if the bookies give $1.90 they're giving themselves a 5 1/4 % margin. But on this handicap minor premiership bet, $15 means they're giving themselves a 20% margin. That doesn't sound all that good to me. If they wanted it to be more like their H2H, they would have offered $17.
Unless they've bungled the handicaps for some teams. But then presumably they'd have bungled the H2Hs for the same teams, so you'd still be better off looking at those H2Hs. |
Hmmmm, WOOSH
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On the eve of a Dynasty |
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glasseyevfx
Joined: 01 Jul 2017
Location: Gold Coast
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I'm going to change the order of my top 4 and go
Pies
Rich
Melb
weagles
Crows
cats
swans
gws
port
ess
haw
nth
carl
suns
saints
bris
wbullies
freo
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We shall set our course by the stars and not ships that pass in the night |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Woosh? |
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TaylorMade
Joined: 11 Feb 2019
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| glasseyevfx wrote: | I'm going to change the order of my top 4 and go
Pies
Rich
Melb
weagles
Crows
cats
swans
gws
port
ess
haw
nth
carl
suns
saints
bris
wbullies
freo |
That answers my question about freo, thanks
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On the eve of a Dynasty |
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TaylorMade
Joined: 11 Feb 2019
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I don't get it
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On the eve of a Dynasty |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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On H2H if everyone & the true sporting odds are in synch, the bookies will make a safe 5 1/4 % profit.
For this handicap thing, they'll make a 20% profit.
Their profit margin would be in the 5-6% range if they offered $17, not $15. |
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TaylorMade
Joined: 11 Feb 2019
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^
Oh sweet, got it, thanks
Does that mean they think they could potentially lose more money on that?
_________________
On the eve of a Dynasty
Last edited by TaylorMade on Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:36 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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simon tonna
Joined: 24 Oct 2013
Location: carindale
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2017 I was a year to early on us finishing top
so I will try again with us on top
and the rest...........who gives a fat rats
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no second chances |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| TaylorMade wrote: | ...
Does that mean they think they could potentially lose more money on that? |
Could be, I guess. The bigger the risk to them, the more buffer they may give themselves. |
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glasseyevfx
Joined: 01 Jul 2017
Location: Gold Coast
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of all the games this year I think rnd 19 will be interesting for us - Richmond late in the season will be a tell all. Also the round before will have eagles v Melb and the week after Richmond v Melb.
we play all Richmond, Eagles and Melb twice.
_________________
We shall set our course by the stars and not ships that pass in the night |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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Chris Pelchen's ladder prediction:
1. Richmond
2. Melbourne
3. Collingwood
4. Adelaide
5. GWS
6. Essendon
7. WCE
8. Hawthorn
9. Geelong
10. Sydney
11. North Melbourne
12. Port Adelaide
13. Brisbane
14. Fremantle
15. Western Bulldogs
16. St. Kilda
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| K wrote: | The [TAB] handicaps are:
Ade +6, Bris +14, Carl +32, Coll +4, Ess +6, Fre +20, Geel +8, Haw +10, NM +10, Mel +2, Port +14, Rich +0, StK +24, Syd +10, WC +4, WB +20, GC +48, GWS +10 |
I haven't found this market on sportsbet, but Ladbrokes has it. The Ladbroke handicaps are:
Adelaide Crows (+12) Brisbane Lions (+26) Carlton (+34)
Collingwood (+6) Essendon (+10) Fremantle (+26)
Geelong Cats (+14) Gold Coast Suns (+48 ) GWS Giants (+12)
Hawthorn (+20) Melbourne (+8 ) North Melbourne (+20)
Port Adelaide (+16) Richmond (Scratch) St Kilda (+30)
Sydney Swans (+14) West Coast Eagles (+6) Western Bulldogs (+26)
But Ladbrokes is offering only $11. 
They're giving themselves a margin over 60%. Ridiculous! Stay away!!
Their handicaps look a fair bit different from TAB's... |
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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But their market gives everyone else a better chance of beating the favourite (Richmond).... hence the lower return.
You really need to do a bit more research to understand how betting markets work K.
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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I didn't yet look too hard at the handicaps, but I did see GC is the same (+48 ).
Re. doing research, you are my research, Skids. 
More seriously, I'm not sure that even after I look at the handicaps it'll be clear that Ladbrokes are taking on more risk with their handicaps. How do you set "safe" handicaps?
[I have to see Rich's fixture... How many interstate games, for starters? But I don't see them as the benchmark. If they have injuries, including to Lynch, I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the eight.]
Last edited by K on Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:02 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| How does doing that make you feel? |
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