US election 2020

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/joe-biden-clinches-the-democratic-presidential-nomination-20200606-p5504o.html

[Pies4shaw]

Good to see that Trump got something out of his campaign re-launch crash and burn overnight, even if it is only a law suit: https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/jun/21/tom-petty-estate-issues-cease-and-desist-over-trump-use-of-song

[Wokko]

Biden agrees to three debates.

https://hannity.com/media-room/buckle-up-biden-campaign-agrees-to-3-debates-with-president-trump-before-2020-election/?fbclid=IwAR073qAEqQzIe5R9qFe7TBbXpbaB5kMrQ5-zzqGGcF4yQS8babQzpQWPp7Q

Trainwreck incoming.

[Pies4shaw]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new-polling-shows-trumps-electoral-college-advantage-is-slipping/

[Tannin]

Interesting poll numbers coming out of the USA today.

Biden's lead over Trump remains huge - 10 points, 54 to 44, which is not in the least surprising.

Americans seem to have finally woken up to the fact that the place is just another country, with strengths and weaknesses like any other, and not some Magical Holy Land which can Do No Wrong. Just 17 percent - yes, one seven, seventeen - say they are "proud" of the US. Satisfaction with "the direction of the country" is down to 12 percent - a huge drop from the 31 percent that same question scored in April.

But the real interest, it seems to me, is in the demographic breakdown.

Biden v Trump support
Men: 50 48
Women: 57 41
Whites: 45 53
Blacks: 90 10
Hispanics: 68 32

The only demographic Trump leads in is white men. Every other split comes down for Biden.

(The article doesn't provide figures for white women vs white men, however given the numbers we do have, it is very hard to imagine any other possibility.)

Look at the massive anti-Trump black number - 90% is unheard of in political polls. All reasonable observers agree that Trump is dog-whistling to racists to support him. Most Trump supporters, however, say this is not so. Their argument is that Trump's racism is only in the mind of educated left-leaning liberal fools. "We can't hear any racist dog-whistles" say the Trumpers. Well maybe not, but that incredible 90% anti-Trump view amongst black voters shows that African Americans are hearing the whistle loud and clear.

Source: https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/biden-leads-trump-in-poll-showing-most-people-unhappy-with-us-20200701-p5585v (subscription required, but it shouldn't be hard to turn up a non-paywalled thing with the same numbers)

[David]

Isn't a figure like that pretty normal? 88% of black voters voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 vs 8% for Trump, and, in 2012, 93% voted for Obama vs a mere 6% for Romney. I think it can be safely presumed, and has been for quite some time now, that the Democrats will consistently get the vast majority of African-American voters. So the only factor that really matters in terms of that demographic is turnout (which was large for Obama in 2008 or 2012, but considerably diminished for Clinton), something that's not captured by a two-candidate-preferred poll.

[Pies4shaw]

^ Well, not everyone agrees. We did have this mild hilarity in the post-inauguration Slumpy thread on 6 June:

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/there-s-a-persuasive-argument-that-the-2020-election-is-already-over-20200701-p5587b.html

[Sicks Bux]

I wonder if the fascination with US politics will drop off once Trump is gone?

[David]

I feel like it’s already dropped off for me. Since Sanders committed seppuku and fully sold out to the Democratic Party, the whole thing’s been a colossal bore. I barely even care who wins. And still 4+ months to go!

[Sicks Bux]

Same. Once Bernie crashed and burnt on Super Tuesday I lost my enthusiasm. I think I'm actually done with it for good. There's bigger voices than mine prosecuting the arguments I agree with. I'll leave them to it.

[Tannin]

David, you "hardly care" whether the only country standing between us and foreign conquest self-destructs, but you aren't interested in us being able to defend ourselves.

That is suicidal thinking writ large.

[David]

The US is self-destructing, and a Biden win would continue that decline. Biden presents no solutions to the US’ various critical dysfunctions, and, much like Macron in France, only offers a holding pattern until the next Republican wrecker gets in. I’m not saying I’m happy about it, but there’s not all that much we can do to help them at this point. That doesn’t necessarily mean global chaos, but does make a reorientation of power inevitable. One of the reasons I’m worried about China, incidentally. But see the other thread for why I think arms build-up isn’t the answer.

[stui magpie]

Just to show 2020 is finished yet, Kanye West is apparently running for POTUS, this year.

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/06/republican-heartland-swing-states-coronavirus-surge