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US election 2020

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Who do you hope wins the US Election?
Trump
39%
 39%  [ 9 ]
Biden
39%
 39%  [ 9 ]
Don't Care
21%
 21%  [ 5 ]
Total Votes : 23

Author Message
David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:26 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Tannin wrote:
Look at David .... happily quoting argument that there is "no evidence" to support the debunking of a baseless political clam for which there was never any evidence in the first place.


The evidence is the documents themselves. It’s those who are claiming they’re fake without basis – and without Biden or his campaign even making such allegations – who have the burden of proof here. I know you think I have an anti-Biden vendetta here, but my real frustration is with the US mainstream media. They’re not doing their job.

I don’t blame those like you and WPT who think that if it’s the New York Times vs a serial liar and fantasist like Trump then the newspaper is obviously the one telling the truth and presenting things in a fair and balanced manner. That’s how I used to think too, and it was very disillusioning to discover otherwise.

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:33 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

^ Sorry David. Journalism 101 corroborate your sources. To say I have the evidence without corroboration is simply a nonsense. It’s not because Trump is a pathological liar but what any decent journalist should do.

I have an email from Donald Trump telling me he only wants the best for the USA and he’s never told a lie in his whole life. I think you should publish it now 😉

You like martyr complex I like substantiation.

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:10 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

What was the corroboration for the Pentagon Papers?
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:43 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

https://sebotero.github.io/papers/COVIDrallies_10_30_2000.pdf

Quote:
Abstract
We investigate the effects of large group meetings on the spread of COVID-19 by studying the impact of eighteen Trump campaign rallies. To capture the effects of subsequent contagion within the pertinent communities, our analysis encompasses up to ten post-rally weeks for each event. Our method is based on a collection of regression models, one for each event, that capture the relationships between post-event outcomes and pre-event characteristics, including demographics and the trajectory of COVID-19 cases, in similar counties. We explore a total of 24 procedures for identifying sets of matched counties. For the vast majority of these variants, our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen events implies that they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents. Extrapolating this figure to the entire sample, we conclude that these eighteen rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19. Applying county- specific post-event death rates, we conclude that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths (not necessarily among attendees).
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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:02 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

David wrote:
What was the corroboration for the Pentagon Papers?


They checked and rechecked their sources far beyond what “deep throat” told them: that is the had to corroborate the information.

Now the problem with answering a basic question like that is that it immediately gives an equivalent value to the email in question by means of juxtaposition. The independent place where the journo / lawyer worked wanted basic corroboration ( as did the Washington post at the time) before publishing. You’re making an assumption fit your narrative which is unsupported by the facts. Facts can be corroborated.

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:36 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Exactly right, WPT. David is making a classic false equivalence error. It is the same error as made by news editors thinking that being "fair" and "even-handed" requires that they give 50% equal time to everything, including hopelessly evidence-free self-interested nutcase groups like climate deniers.
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:35 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-can-still-win-but-the-polls-would-have-to-be-off-by-way-more-than-in-2016/

This is an helpful - and unbiased - explanation of how fivethirtyeight sees the probabilities in the present situation.
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roar 



Joined: 01 Sep 2004


PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:22 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

David wrote:
Tannin wrote:
Look at David .... happily quoting argument that there is "no evidence" to support the debunking of a baseless political clam for which there was never any evidence in the first place.


The evidence is the documents themselves. It’s those who are claiming they’re fake without basis – and without Biden or his campaign even making such allegations – who have the burden of proof here.


Spot on, David. Journalistic standards are dying and the excuse is that Trump is so bad, it's ok to abandon integrity.

Just look at Glenn Greenwald resigning from The Intercept. He founded the project to protect editorial freedoms and now the editors are stifling any reporting that questions anything the democratic party does.

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:58 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

roar wrote:
David wrote:
Tannin wrote:
Look at David .... happily quoting argument that there is "no evidence" to support the debunking of a baseless political clam for which there was never any evidence in the first place.


The evidence is the documents themselves. It’s those who are claiming they’re fake without basis – and without Biden or his campaign even making such allegations – who have the burden of proof here.


Spot on, David. Journalistic standards are dying and the excuse is that Trump is so bad, it's ok to abandon integrity.

Just look at Glenn Greenwald resigning from The Intercept. He founded the project to protect editorial freedoms and now the editors are stifling any reporting that questions anything the democratic party does.


It is speculation until it is corroborated. If it is corroborated then publish. That's a pretty basic standard.

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roar 



Joined: 01 Sep 2004


PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:50 pm
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Oh, I agree with that. It's the editing (censoring) of articles that don't follow party lines which is disgraceful and all too common.
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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:16 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

^ You articles that don't come up to basic journalistic standards. Get it right.
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roar 



Joined: 01 Sep 2004


PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:39 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

My example had nothing to do with editing due to journalistic standards. He is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist that was been censored due to writing an article questioning the Biden issues.

Of course, that won't interest you because you seem to believe any approach used to battle Trump is fair, which is exactly the point we are making.

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:44 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Skids wrote:
Current SB market for the 2020 presidential election;

Trumpinator $2.55

O'Rourke $6.50
Harris $9
Biden $13
Warren $17

M.Obama $17
Bernie $21
Pence $26
Gabbard $26
Klobuchar $31
Bloomberg $31
Booker $31
Gillibrand $34
Joe Kennedy the third $41
Shapirio $51
Hitlery $51
Oprah $51
Castro $67
Kayne West $201
Beyonc� $301
Oscar de la Hoya $401

Stormy Daniels & Wokko $501

That was on 13 January 2019.

As of now:

Biden $1.52
Trump $2.65

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020-2982545
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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:46 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

In trying to get the women’s vote Trump has said this in the last week:

“I love women, more than I love men

& we’re going to help women by getting their men jobs”

His advisors must be pulling their hair out. I love it.

He’s a bit quiet on “grabbing women by their pussies” recently though. Not sure why. He thinks it’s a winner. 😉😜

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Sicks Bux Sagittarius

Hal 2003-2019


Joined: 30 Jun 2020
Location: Me Island Ome

PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:58 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Pies4shaw wrote:
Skids wrote:
Current SB market for the 2020 presidential election;

Trumpinator $2.55

O'Rourke $6.50
Harris $9
Biden $13
Warren $17

M.Obama $17
Bernie $21
Pence $26
Gabbard $26
Klobuchar $31
Bloomberg $31
Booker $31
Gillibrand $34
Joe Kennedy the third $41
Shapirio $51
Hitlery $51
Oprah $51
Castro $67
Kayne West $201
Beyonc� $301
Oscar de la Hoya $401

Stormy Daniels & Wokko $501

That was on 13 January 2019.

As of now:

Biden $1.52
Trump $2.65

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020-2982545


Would've loved it to have been Gabbard or Bernie. I was thinking of putting a heap of cash on Biden the other day because I think he's a certainty to win the popular vote, but I'm wary about Trump's ability to steal it through a combination of: voter suppression, disqualifying postal votes & contesting the result before the conservative Supreme Court.
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