US election 2020

[Jezza]

[stui magpie]

If Biden drops off the perch, surely that means Bernie has to get the nod? How can they just drop someone else in or bring back someone who dropped out?

[Wokko]

[stui magpie]

So the $64 question is, WTF is the point of the whole thing?

[David]

Wokko's right. Of course Sanders supporters would make the argument that it should be him as he came second, and I think there's a strong moral argument for that. But the rules are that if no-one enters the convention with a majority of delegates, then the delegates are free to choose another candidate, including one who hasn't run (particularly one who might be considered a "unifying" figure). Is it going to be a farce if it comes to that? Yeah, basically, although perhaps less so when you consider that many major parties around the world (including the Libs and Greens here and Labor until recently) just appoint leaders without consulting party members, let alone the general public. The US primary system is actually one of the more democratic nomination processes out there, and it's very rare for a candidate of either party to not end up with a clear majority before the convention.

Anyway, I don't want to be a pessimist, but I think we'll know by tomorrow afternoon whether or not the race is still on. Six states are voting, including nominally Bernie-friendly ones like Michigan and Washington; if Sanders picks up at least one or two of them and stays close in the delegate count, then maybe he still has a shot. But if Biden goes 6–0 (as the polls are indicating) then I think it's safe to say that resistance is futile.

[Wokko]

Biden now 99% chance according to fivethirtyeight, Nobody is 1% and Sanders is <1%, same as Gabbard. It's over.

[David]

Not sure how much stock I’d put in that; I wouldn’t exactly be putting money on Sanders right now, but there’s still time for the dynamic of the race to change and the delegate difference is far from insurmountable. Ultimately it may come down to Washington, the biggest state voting today: win that, and I feel like there might be a little life left in the Sanders campaign yet. Lose and, as I said above, last one to leave can turn the lights out.

[Wokko]

Michigan's the biggest state voting today and Biden's leading. He's going to win every state today except Washington.

I was waiting to see some early results come in, but it's as bad or worse for Sanders as Super Tuesday. I'm calling it. Biden is the nominee.

[Wokko]

Michigan just got called for Biden.

Missouri and Mississippi were called as soon as polls closed.

[Pies4shaw]

The Kiss of Death (if one were even required):

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/10/neil-young-endorses-bernie-sanders-every-point-he-makes-is-what-i-believe-in

[Wokko]

[David]

[Wokko]

Idaho - Biden
Washington - Neck and Neck
North Dakota - Sanders

Buckle up for Trump/Biden debates.

[David]

^ The North Dakota count is only the mail-in ballots so far, I'm sorry to say, which would probably be expected to favour Sanders. No idea where that state will end up, but it's still possible that Washington (where Sanders leads narrowly) could be his only win, or that he could lose all six.

[Jezza]

Counting hasn't concluded yet, but here are current numbers:

Idaho = Biden (48.3%), Sanders (42.6%)
Michigan = Biden (52.8%), Sanders (37.5%), Gabbard (0.2%)
Mississippi = Biden (81.0%), Sanders (14.9%), Gabbard (0.4%)
North Dakota = Sanders (47.5%), Biden (39.3%), Gabbard (0.3%)
Washington = Sanders (32.7%), Biden (32.5%)