Champions League Final 2018: Real Madrid v Liverpool

[Jezza]

Liverpool's the sole team remaining from all the semi finalists of last year.

[K]

Well, that must be a small tick for them.

If they finish the EPL 2nd, as the bookies think, but win the Champion's League, it'll be some accomplishment.

[K]

A Champions League’s Changing of the Guard Leaves Behind Two Fixtures

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/13/sports/barcelona-messi-champions-league.html

"For the first time in 13 years, there will be no German teams present on Friday when the draw for the quarterfinals is made. There will be four representatives from the Premier League, for the first time in 10.

No wonder, then, there is a sense that the guard is changing, that this will prove to be the season that bridges two distinct ages. The time of this incarnation of Real Madrid has passed, most obviously, but perhaps that can be said of others among the clutch of superclubs who have, for the last decade, dominated the latter stages of this competition, too.

Bayern is gearing up to rejuvenate its squad. Atlético will lose the player that has best encapsulated its recent history — the grizzled Uruguayan defender Diego Godín — this summer.

As they stumble, the English rise: Manchester City’s destruction of Schalke cemented its place as the favorite to inherit Real Madrid’s crown; Liverpool reached the final last year, and is a more rounded, more durable side this time around. Tottenham beat Borussia Dortmund in both legs, displaying a maturity it has previously lacked. Manchester United, reborn under Solskjaer, has a sense of abandon and fun that makes it dangerous.
...

Eras do end, and times do change. Identifying when is not an exact science, of course: they tend to drift into each other; there are rarely clean breaks. But perhaps it is fair to say that Real Madrid’s period of dominance is at an end, or that the age of the superclubs has been put on hiatus, or even that Spain’s pre-eminence in European competition (every Champions League title since 2014, and 7 of the last 10) is over.

But it is equally possible that none of those eras existed in the first place, and that instead they were simply consequences of the age of Messi and of Ronaldo, their teams the beneficiaries of their greatness, their ability to decide games and define seasons. That has not changed. Their age is not over yet. Everything might look different. Messi and Ronaldo, though, are still the same."

[Jezza]

English sides were very strong in the Champions League during the mid to late 2000s, but UEFA always hated it for some reason.

I've grown bit tired of the Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich monopoly of the past 10 years. Outside the three main sides, only Inter Milan and Chelsea have won the Champions League in the past 10 years.

[K]

FiveThirtyEight's title predictions:

Man. City 33%
Liverpool 25%
Barcelona 22%
Juventus 9%
Ajax 5%
Tottenham 3%
Man. United 2%
Porto 1%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/

[K]

UK bookies' title odds (& implied chances):

Man. City 3.25 [27.8%]
Juventus 4.33 [20.9%]
Barcelona 4.50 [20.1%]
Liverpool 5.00 [18.1%]
Man. United 17.00 [5.3%]
Tottenham 23.00 [3.9%]
Ajax 34.00 [2.7%]
Porto 67.00 [1.3%]

(Margin: 9.7%)

Juventus is the one big disagreement between the bookies and FiveThirtyEight.

[K]

"Juventus forward Cristiano Ronaldo has been fined 20,000 euros by UEFA for appearing to make an obscene gesture while celebrating his side's Champions League victory over Atletico Madrid." (DPA)

[A crotch gesture.]

[K]

"The big thing that could cost Liverpool is the Champions League.

The longer they are in Europe, the more I think they are likely to drop Premier League points.

At full strength, when you compare their strongest XI to City's, there is not much between them, but Klopp's bench is simply not as strong as City's.

Liverpool will have injuries or even just fatigue to deal with in the final few weeks of the season and for me, that is when they might just fall short."

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/47606224

[K]

PSG considering legal action against Manchester United legend Evra - sources

http://www.espn.com.au/football/paris-saint-germain/story/3804540/psg-considering-legal-action-against-manchester-united-legend-evra-sources



But I have no idea what legal action they could possibly take. Evra's quoted statements are very vulgar, but the only threat sounds like his "I'm going to slap you in the face" comment to Rothen.

PSG's statement claims Evra made "homophobic insults towards the club, its representatives, and its former player". Was that something that wasn't quoted? The quote just has Evra saying that PSG was beaten by boys who lacked reproductive capabilities.

[K]

In Europe, a Bitter Battle Between Clubs and Leagues Is Taking Shape

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/01/sports/uefa-champions-league.html

"Confronted with what they consider a power play by a group of wealthy soccer clubs to promote the Champions League at the expense of national championships, representatives of Europe’s domestic leagues will meet in Lisbon this week to discuss a strategy to protect what they say is decades of tradition, and a basic sense of fairness.
...

The Bundesliga’s chief executive called weekend Champions League matches a “red line” that could not be crossed. English officials similarly declared the idea a nonstarter.
...

Javier Tebas, the frequently outspoken head of Spain’s top league, said the proposal to restructure continental competitions for the benefit of the small group of rich clubs that already dominate them would spell doom for soccer in large parts of Europe. The changes would, Tebas said, allow the wealthiest clubs to widen the massive talent and resource gap they already enjoy, and tear away the fabric of the sport’s traditions."

[K]

Tuesday 9 April
Liverpool 2-0 Porto
Tottenham 1-0 Manchester City

FiveThirtyEight's title predictions have changed:

Liverpool 30%
Barcelona 25%
Man. City 21%
Juventus 8%
Tottenham 8%
Ajax 6%
Man. United 2%
Porto <1%

Man. City has dropped. (Tottenham has risen, but it's still small.)

[K]

A Genius in Full Bloom, Lionel Messi Lifts Barcelona

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/sports/lionel-messi-champions-league-.html

"Even when everything is in flux — when a bright, young Ajax team can go to Turin and beat wily old Juventus, when Cristiano Ronaldo can miss out on the Champions League semifinals, when guards seem to be changing and eras ending — a 3-0 second-leg quarterfinal victory over Manchester United featured soccer’s one great, enduring constant: Messi beaming, Barcelona winning, opponents left staring, hollow and glassy, at a genius that defies belief.

This is, at a rough estimate, the fourth iteration of Messi, the latest in a series of upgrades.
...

What is remarkable is that each version has been, arguably, the finest exponent of that position in history; each and every one has been captured by a moment that confirms his mastery of that role, that suggests he had completed that particular task and was ready for something new.
...

Messi, now, at 31, goes where he likes, when he likes, and Ernesto Valverde’s Barcelona flexes its shape to fit in the gaps. He spends the first 10 minutes or so of every game ambling around, working out where the opposition is weakest — it took him some time against this version of Manchester United — and then stations himself in whatever position he thinks will cause most damage. His teammates make the necessary adjustments, and he gets to work.
...

Guardiola was told, earlier this year, that his Manchester City was the favorite for the Champions League. No, he said, not at all: “Whoever has Messi, they are the favorites.” "

[Jezza]

Great match between Man City and Tottenham this morning with Spurs going through on the away goals rule.

Now it's down to four teams:
- Barcelona v Liverpool
- Tottenham v Ajax

[K]

FiveThirtyEight's title predictions changed relatively little after the opening two QF games, but now they've changed a fair bit:

Liverpool 35%
Barcelona 34%
Ajax 16%
Tottenham 15%

Ajax has shot up, of course.

[K]

UK bookies:

Barcelona 2.50 [~37%]
Liverpool 3.50 [~26%]
Tottenham 5.00 [~18%]
Ajax 5.00 [~18%]

(Bookies' margin: ~8%.)

The punters have much less faith in Liverpool than FiveThirtyEight.
Above, we can see FiveThirtyEight was much more cluey than punters about Juventus.