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Players who need to be overtaken

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Dave The Man Scorpio



Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2015 8:11 pm
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I think Adams and Fasolo are in our Best 22.

Adams Defensive Side to his Game and Getting the Hard Ball.

Fasolo as he is such a good user of the Ball and great Finisher

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The Weed 



Joined: 07 Mar 2005


PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2015 8:46 pm
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Neil Appleby wrote:
BTW, whilst you're in the mood for compiling lists, how about a list of Nick's Posters who won't be around come 2018-19 and beyond. That could be a lot of fun. BTW, where is colliedog?


I have a suspicion CollieDog has come back as the most positive poster on Nicks just to continue his trolling ways. He also doesn't mind bringing up the Hawks. Can guess who I mean?
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Johnny1975 



Joined: 30 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2015 9:03 pm
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A first-time poster, forgive the intrusion. I do think that there are always players, even in the best sides, who aren't 'ideal 22' players. Even Hawthorn have their Spanghers and Simpkins' types. And so I don't think that there needs to be a great anxiety about which players in our list would or wouldn't fit in a premiership side.

Having said that, there are always players who (it is hoped) will be overtaken by younger talent, or by players who are better but who've been injured. I don't think that Frost is a candidate to be picked off on either front. He's a determined kid who has stood up to every challenge thrown his way. His 2014 was phenomenal, only a step (or two) behind Langdon. He will develop more, if given the chance, and I can easily envision him being part of a brighter future for the Pies.

Goldsack is another one who gets unfairly maligned. He might tackle himself into an early retirement, but until that day arrives I have no doubt that he'll continue to make us a better team. Everyone is there to be overtaken, and yet there's no one on the horizon who does what he does.

The others in the list are certainly vulnerable. I maintain some hope that Williams might start to resemble the player we saw in 2013, and I hope that White and Fas can give us more than they have. If not, then let the future roll on...

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Gone Critical 



Joined: 18 Jan 2015


PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:25 pm
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I almost look at this problem with an opposite point of view. I see the weakness of any side wanting to challenge for a flag being with what their top 6-12 players offer. This is where flag sides are made. Positions 16-22 are the easiest to fill. As an aside Blair and Goldsack became premiership players when they were inferior versions of their current selves.

I am also suspicious of that term "potential". We have a lot of younger players with it who haven't had much chance to blot their senior AFL copybook who therefore are assumed to be better talents than the incumbents. As an example you have Freeman, Broomhead and Kennedy all going past Blair shortly. Hope it's true but it's no given.

What we need is an influx of A grade talent to return to contention. All or any of the group of Frost et al may be good enough to be part of our next success if that occurs. I am less interested in replacing them than seeing some of Moore, DeGoey et al becoming A graders. It is more new player in the 1-10 spots we need not worrying about who can be 16-22
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RudeBoy 



Joined: 28 Nov 2005


PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:35 pm
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I think the person who we most need to be overtaken is Cloke. We need someone who we can rely upon to actually kick goals. Hopefully Darcy Moore will be that player, but it does concern me that the club has him playing in the VFL as a defender.
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Gone Critical 



Joined: 18 Jan 2015


PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:49 pm
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RudeBoy wrote:
I think the person who we most need to be overtaken is Cloke. We need someone who we can rely upon to actually kick goals. Hopefully Darcy Moore will be that player, but it does concern me that the club has him playing in the VFL as a defender.


That's our 2x AA KPF. The guy who almost won the Coleman season before last. Not sure I agree
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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:58 pm
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Gone Critical wrote:
RudeBoy wrote:
I think the person who we most need to be overtaken is Cloke. We need someone who we can rely upon to actually kick goals. Hopefully Darcy Moore will be that player, but it does concern me that the club has him playing in the VFL as a defender.


That's our 2x AA KPF. The guy who almost won the Coleman season before last. Not sure I agree


It is true. If Travis Cloke isn't in our best 22, we are winning every game by 150 goals!

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Gone Critical 



Joined: 18 Jan 2015


PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2015 12:01 am
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Another good comparison I like to make as to why it's not having players like Blair in our 22 that is holding us back. There is a similar player running around in the AFL today who has only played in top 4 sides all his career

He is a bit shorter than Blairy and a bit lighter. He doesn't get as many possessions and as a defensive forward his tackle numbers are not quite as good. His goal scoring is a little better but no different to what Blairs was when we were a top 4 side.

Still he is a dual premiership player the last 2 seasons, is a bit of a darling to the scribes and his teams supporters. No one is calling for his replacement because he is doing his job and the team success is reliant on the stars performing while he gets about backing them up. Paul Puopolo is fortunate to have landed at the Hawks because it has given him the chance to play in a successful side and his job is much easier and less scrutinised because of it.

In all successful sides there are workers plying their craft who would suffer by reputation if they were doing the same role in a less successful team. If Blair gets to play in another flag he will be another instance of an ordinary player who was lucky enough to land in a good team at the right time. Our key to success isn't to lose a Blair to become successful it is to build a team that allows a Blair to flourish as part of our next flag team.
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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2015 12:02 am
Post subject: Re: Players who need to be overtakenReply with quote

Tannin wrote:
An excellent post, Pies4shaw, and not deserving of the negativity I'm seeing in the responses.

Naturally I don't agree with you as to all of the specifics, but your overall thrust is spot on. These players (well, more or less these players, as we will see I don't agree with all of the ones you mentioned) are the one who, if we are going to be brutally honest, wouldn't get close to getting a game with Hawthorn, and probably wouldn't get a gig with Freo or Geelong either.

No disrespect to any of them, and one or two of them are virtually certain to find a way to lift a cog and figure in our next premiership, but you can only go into a big finals match with so many spear carriers. You need a side with serious skills and heaps of ability.

--------------------------------------------

Now, to quibble about specifics:

I'd cross out Frost on your list and replace him with Brown. (Tannin ducks for cover, reaches for earplugs against the howls of outrage.) Frost is faster than Brown, covers a lot more ground, much better overhead, has disposal no worse, can contest with the tall ruckman-forward types Brown can't seem to stop, is much younger, and less likely to get injured.

What's more, we are seeing Frost played out of position up the ground: he's just a kid and he is having to learn a whole new role in the side. (In your head, swap them over and see what you get.)

White is on his last throw of the dice, I reckon. He has been Mr Inconsistent for year after year now, first at Sydney and now here. He's got about three months, a year at the outside, to find consistent form - I'd set the bar about the way he played this week: if he could do that every week I'd be happy with him - before one of Gault or Moore takes his spot away forever.

Like you, I have a lot of time for Dwyer, and like you I can't quite see him making it at his age.

Goldy ... well, Goldy tends to get better with each game he plays, and takes a hell of a long time to get himself up to his best. He needs to play every game, and if he does, he becomes a very useful man indeed. But if he goes out with injury for more than a week, he shouldn't come back in again. We can't afford to spend three or four weeks waiting for him to play himself back into form.

Williams? I haven't seen Williams this year. There is some other chap wearing his number, does some nice things and he has a red hot go, but he's not half as good as young Williams used to be.


Yes, no doubt, Frost as many varied skills, many of which are better than those of Nathan Brown. The one attribute you failed to mention was who is the better shut down Key defensive back man. Isn't that more important than "who is faster and covers more ground"?

On your logic, we should get El Guerrouj down there.

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2015 1:17 am
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RudeBoy wrote:
I think the person who we most need to be overtaken is Cloke. We need someone who we can rely upon to actually kick goals. Hopefully Darcy Moore will be that player, but it does concern me that the club has him playing in the VFL as a defender.

In the four completed seasons since Collingwood won the flag, Cloke has kicked 235 goals, at an average of 2.6 goals per game. He had a poor season by his standards in 2014 but still kicked 1.95 goals per game (and, as it happens, 1 goal more - in 4 less games - than he kicked in 2010). If one looks at Collingwood's present playing list, there is no other player with anything near like a two-goal per game career goal-kicking average. After Cloke (1.81 goals per game over his entire career), the nearest is Jamie Elliott, who averages about 1.3 goals per game (and averaged 2 goals per game last year).

Thus, Collingwood clearly has a vacancy for a second KPF, unless Reid is going to play forward. Darcy Moore may be a part of the answer but he wouldn't be replacing Cloke (although he might play closer to goal, with Cloke playing more as a CHF) - he'd just be filling what is presently another big hole up forward.

It is worth bearing in mind that the 2010 Grand Final was won by a team in which no-one on the day kicked more than 2 goals - but five players (Cloke, Dawes, Didak, Wellingham, Sidebottom) each kicked 2. Fast forward to 2015 and there aren't any players in the present Collingwood side apart from Cloke that you might confidently pencil in to kick 2 goals on a given day.

Put another way, in 2012, after Cloke's 59 goals, Beams, Fasolo, Swan, Goldsack and Thomas (so 6 players in all) each bettered 20 goals. In 2011, after Cloke's 69 goals, Krak and Swanny both bettered 30 goals and 6 other players kicked over 20 goals. That's 9 players - half a starting 18 - who were going at about a goal or game or better over that year (and it was the same in 2010). By 2014, there were only 3 players in total who bettered 20 goals for the season.

That's partly a reflection of a general decline in team performance but it also suggests that the support for Cloke has fallen away rapidly. Merely substituting another player for Cloke in the present side won't solve that problem.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2015 1:47 am
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Gone Critical wrote:
Another good comparison I like to make as to why it's not having players like Blair in our 22 that is holding us back. There is a similar player running around in the AFL today who has only played in top 4 sides all his career

He is a bit shorter than Blairy and a bit lighter. He doesn't get as many possessions and as a defensive forward his tackle numbers are not quite as good. His goal scoring is a little better but no different to what Blairs was when we were a top 4 side.

Still he is a dual premiership player the last 2 seasons, is a bit of a darling to the scribes and his teams supporters. No one is calling for his replacement because he is doing his job and the team success is reliant on the stars performing while he gets about backing them up. Paul Puopolo is fortunate to have landed at the Hawks because it has given him the chance to play in a successful side and his job is much easier and less scrutinised because of it.

In all successful sides there are workers plying their craft who would suffer by reputation if they were doing the same role in a less successful team. If Blair gets to play in another flag he will be another instance of an ordinary player who was lucky enough to land in a good team at the right time. Our key to success isn't to lose a Blair to become successful it is to build a team that allows a Blair to flourish as part of our next flag team.


An OUTSTANDING Post. You have summed up my feelings for
Blair (and Goldsack for that matter) perfectly! spot on! Well done.

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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2015 1:49 am
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Pies4shaw wrote:
RudeBoy wrote:
I think the person who we most need to be overtaken is Cloke. We need someone who we can rely upon to actually kick goals. Hopefully Darcy Moore will be that player, but it does concern me that the club has him playing in the VFL as a defender.

In the four completed seasons since Collingwood won the flag, Cloke has kicked 235 goals, at an average of 2.6 goals per game. He had a poor season by his standards in 2014 but still kicked 1.95 goals per game (and, as it happens, 1 goal more - in 4 less games - than he kicked in 2010). If one looks at Collingwood's present playing list, there is no other player with anything near like a two-goal per game career goal-kicking average. After Cloke (1.81 goals per game over his entire career), the nearest is Jamie Elliott, who averages about 1.3 goals per game (and averaged 2 goals per game last year).

Thus, Collingwood clearly has a vacancy for a second KPF, unless Reid is going to play forward. Darcy Moore may be a part of the answer but he wouldn't be replacing Cloke (although he might play closer to goal, with Cloke playing more as a CHF) - he'd just be filling what is presently another big hole up forward.

It is worth bearing in mind that the 2010 Grand Final was won by a team in which no-one on the day kicked more than 2 goals - but five players (Cloke, Dawes, Didak, Wellingham, Sidebottom) each kicked 2. Fast forward to 2015 and there aren't any players in the present Collingwood side apart from Cloke that you might confidently pencil in to kick 2 goals on a given day.

Put another way, in 2012, after Cloke's 59 goals, Beams, Fasolo, Swan, Goldsack and Thomas (so 6 players in all) each bettered 20 goals. In 2011, after Cloke's 69 goals, Krak and Swanny both bettered 30 goals and 6 other players kicked over 20 goals. That's 9 players - half a starting 18 - who were going at about a goal or game or better over that year (and it was the same in 2010). By 2014, there were only 3 players in total who bettered 20 goals for the season.

That's partly a reflection of a general decline in team performance but it also suggests that the support for Cloke has fallen away rapidly. Merely substituting another player for Cloke in the present side won't solve that problem.


Also a solid post. I guess the pre-season is over on Nicks as well as the quality of posting is on a massive uptick.

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stats-hit 



Joined: 14 Mar 2012


PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2015 6:12 am
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Gone Critical wrote:
I almost look at this problem with an opposite point of view. I see the weakness of any side wanting to challenge for a flag being with what their top 6-12 players offer. This is where flag sides are made. Positions 16-22 are the easiest to fill. As an aside Blair and Goldsack became premiership players when they were inferior versions of their current selves.

I am also suspicious of that term "potential". We have a lot of younger players with it who haven't had much chance to blot their senior AFL copybook who therefore are assumed to be better talents than the incumbents. As an example you have Freeman, Broomhead and Kennedy all going past Blair shortly. Hope it's true but it's no given.

What we need is an influx of A grade talent to return to contention. All or any of the group of Frost et al may be good enough to be part of our next success if that occurs. I am less interested in replacing them than seeing some of Moore, DeGoey et al becoming A graders. It is more new player in the 1-10 spots we need not worrying about who can be 16-22


Mr.Critical you have summed it up perfectly.

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Damien Aquarius

Me Noah & Flynn @ the G


Joined: 21 Jan 1999
Location: Croydon Vic

PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:56 am
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The basic premise of list management is looking at the list and working out who is a clogger and replacing that player or players with those you think can get you to a flag. It's obviously more complex than that but the clubs that do it well think short term, mid term and long term simultaneously. I think our finals record over the last 12 years shows that we've done that pretty well. If this is our bottom out phase then I'm pretty happy, particularly in the context of the two new clubs getting all the best draft picks for so long.
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yin-YANG 



Joined: 03 Oct 2011


PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2015 9:17 am
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I don't agree with OP.

I like the idea of having this kind of discussion without the heat and emotion of a loss… however I think the sting of last season is dripping in the suggestions put forward.

When we look back at the 2010 premiership team there were some players who were overtaken as we pushed on for premiership glory. However they were older players in their late 20's or early 30's that were overtaken by youth with talent. The list with Adams and Frost included is quite frankly off track… Both of these hard nuts will be crucial to our future success with the slicksters.

Goldy and White are older players that might be in the category of needing to be overtaken - but I would prefer to focus on the here and now and quite clearly White has stepped up the intensity and there is no-one else doing Goldy's role. Blair and Faz performed their role for the team on the weekend and if they continue with such form they will stay in the team. High intensity and scoring goals is what we need from our forwards new or old and they both delivered.

The important aspect is that the young guys coming up need to also demand a spot - there is two aspects of being overtaken - not just picking on a few ugly ducklings. The young guys have potential - I would love to see Freeman and Berg our there ripping it up - but they need to earn it from performances not based on premature ejections from dreamy types… Wink

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