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Chinese imperialism and future Australian sovereignty

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roar 



Joined: 01 Sep 2004


PostPosted: Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:02 am
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All that needs to happen is to get Russia on side. If they will support a tougher stance against China, there is no WW3 but rather, China gets spanked and it has to pull its head in. Even if Russia simply stays on the sidelines, it's an easy fix. If Russia decide to support Russia, however, things will get ugly.

Will agree that a proper trade block could also work but it will be much slower and cause much pain for the Chinese population over a long period.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:29 am
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roar wrote:
All that needs to happen is to get Russia on side. If they will support a tougher stance against China, there is no WW3 but rather, China gets spanked and it has to pull its head in. Even if Russia simply stays on the sidelines, it's an easy fix. If Russia decide to support Russia, however, things will get ugly.

Will agree that a proper trade block could also work but it will be much slower and cause much pain for the Chinese population over a long period.

What does this 'spanking' with new allies Russia look like? You do understand you're dealing with weapons of mass destruction and megalopolises, not a rural football match where one team can only field 12 players, gets 'spanked' by 172 points, and everyone goes and has a beer.

Your military spanking is imaginary given weaponry, population, economic and technological integration. It can't be dished out to North Korea, let alone China. The slightest whiff of it would crash world markets before anyone even begins to explain how it might work.

This is pre-Cold War talk, let alone twenty-first century talk.

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stui magpie Gemini

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Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:21 pm
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Quote:
Britain has hailed a new visa offering Hong Kong citizens a route to citizenship after China's crackdown on political opposition in the city, but Beijing says it will no longer recognise special British passports offered to residents of the former Crown colony.

Key points:
The UK says it is giving Hongkongers the chance to "make their home in our country"
China says the policy would turn Hongkongers into "second-class British citizens"
Beijing will stop recognising special British passports issued to some Hongkongers
Britain and China have been bickering for months about what London and Washington say is an attempt to silence dissent in Hong Kong, though Beijing says the West's views are clouded by misinformation and an imperial hangover.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-30/uk-offers-hongkongers-citizenship-path-china-bans-bno-passports/13105130

China is clearly in expansionist mode, starting with Hong Kong and Taiwan. Absorbing capitalist territories close to it and anything within what it thinks it's territory is.

Trade sanctions alone won't stop it, nor will sabre rattling. The threat of force will only work against China if it believes we are willing to use it.

(by "We" I mean the US and whatever coalition can be bought together)

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pietillidie 



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:32 pm
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^As asked above, can you explain how this force works? I think it's imaginary. As I say, look at the value North Korea gets from its rusty old weapons of mass destruction. I can't see how small skirmishes do anything but collapse the global economy through fear and cyber attack, while everyone knows major attacks are off the table because the retaliation — say a missile strike on Osaka — is unthinkable.
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roar 



Joined: 01 Sep 2004


PostPosted: Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:45 pm
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If there is agreement amongst all the greater powers, then China will be faced with the option of a war against everybody except North Korea if it wishes to continue it's expansion (i.e. a war it will lose very quickly and lose a lot of face) or it can pull it's head in and resume to live as per the rest of the world's rules. The first option will also, no doubt, see them lose territory, which would hurt more than not gaining extra.

It's not ideal and people will lose their lives but I truly can't see another way. Trade blocks and economic sanctions could eventually work but there would also be great loss of life (in China, at least) and I don't believe it will stop them invading Taiwan and other areas. No sensible person wants a war but sometimes, when dealing with certain types, there isn't an effective alternative.

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stui magpie Gemini

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Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:12 pm
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pietillidie wrote:
^As asked above, can you explain how this force works? I think it's imaginary. As I say, look at the value North Korea gets from its rusty old weapons of mass destruction. I can't see how small skirmishes do anything but collapse the global economy through fear and cyber attack, while everyone knows major attacks are off the table because the retaliation — say a missile strike on Osaka — is unthinkable.


North Korea is left alone because it isn't hurting anyone. If they sent troops marching into Sth Korea what do you think would happen?

How the force works depends on what China does, the force could take the form of warships, aircraft, troops or all 3. Basically if they try to take control of Taiwan we use the minimum force necessary to stop them and worry about the world economy after

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pietillidie 



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:18 pm
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^Your conception of this bears no connection with the way present-day force at a certain level of power works. We're dealing with a massive, sophisticated economic and military power here with all kinds of defensive and retaliatory options that well exceed mutual destruction, and can comfortably deliver any level of destruction in between. It's not a simple case of counting battleships and sending them in, and even less so in crowded East Asia.

Sure, you can still push around distant peasant nations whose own deterrents can't reach you or impact you very much. But even then, anything vaguely complex, from Vietnam to Afghanistan and Iraq, you lose, merely wrecking the joint. All you do is create mass death, trigger mass people movement, and spend billions to become global moral pariahs.

You can do nothing at all about North Korea because they will launch missiles at Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo. Our will and motivation don't even enter into the equation, something you fail to grasp. The parameters are already fixed, at least for now.

Even when North Korea goes too far, and say launches a missile strike on South Korean islands, nothing is done. If their hackers take down some infrastructure somewhere, nothing is done. If they support some gangster or terrorist regime for earnings, nothing is done. When I say 'nothing' I mean nothing involving the overt military force you're imagining. (The sanctions regime and espionage are ratcheted up, but nothing along traditional military lines is done).

At the same time, North Korea is crafty enough to know not to go too far and force anyone's hand. Mutually assured destruction does its job. Not even an axis of evil nutter type like Bolton or Pompeo, who have no problem killing entire peoples, can touch them.

Bearing this in mind, when we come to the infinitely more capable and powerful China, we already know it doesn't work like a favourite old boyhood war movie.

China is pushing around weaker nations as the West and Japan have always done, and most others in the region do to each other when given a fraction of an opportunity. There has long been a tolerance of this, of course. And when those weaker peoples also happen to live in lands which are intertwined closely with the PRC or Chinese history, it's that much easier to call it 'their problem' and not want to get involved, especially for other Asian nations.

Of course, people suddenly pretend to care when expedient. So, now Australia is getting pushed around and it's no longer boom time, people suddenly take an interest in artificial islands in the South China Sea and pretend they care about Taiwan. Tough internet talk and feigned moral outrage from the usual suspects follows.

But nothing is done except use the PR opportunity to push through military spending and new military drills and manoeuvres. Some of what follows is reasonable — good defensive capabilities and operational drills are essential — much of it is just corporate handouts and domestic political mileage. The rest becomes a ruse for domestic racism against those pesky Asians who keep getting the high grades and good jobs.

Meanwhile, China keeps increasing its leverage over territories it has always claimed, and pushes about weaker neighbours as every power has done or does when no one is looking.

Deep down, the average sane person cannot conceive of major war, get that it's not the early 20th century, and unlike internet crazies still have control of their minds. Think it through: any traditional military engagement starts with low-level tension and tit-for-tat. The CCP would love this and even provoke it (which it does already), because it can take losses in skirmishes and these things only create fodder for internal media and strengthen domestic support for the CCP hardline wing.

But at any level beyond breaching a no-fly zone or chest beating at sea, we are the ones who can't take it. Japan can't take it. South Korea can't take it. People with different life expectations who have stronger individual identities and are less under the heel of authority develop a different hierarchy of life expectations. Faced with even minor losses as tension mounts, everyone knows if you retaliate again you simply ratchet up the mutual losses and overall risk. The odd warning shot 'accidentally' lands in the East Sea. Support weakens rather than strengthens, especially given the economy has been languishing since Trump's trade war and the pandemic, and there is little appetite for still more misery.

Cyber warfare then takes out the odd bit of infrastructure, like a ghost that puts the wind right up everyone. For all anyone knows, Russia or North Korea might have grabbed the chance to pile on the chaos. Markets collapse in fright. South Korea and Japan push for swift resolution, being in direct line of fire and taking the brunt of market losses.

The concern for self quickly becomes overwhelming. Much like the Cold War, to avoid direct mass conflict, proxy disputes break out across Asia and elsewhere. Once the people movement begins and the boat people start hitting the water, support drops like a stone.

The EU pushes for diplomatic resolution, increasing tensions between itself and Anglo-America, threatening to realise the true horror of Brexit. Russia and friends do what they always do, and parasite off the emerging asymmetries. Old wounds flare up all over Asia (and there are dozens of them) and threaten to get out of hand.

In any case, China doesn't invade Taiwan, but only because of mutually assured destruction, not because of token military drills, faux international moral concern, fear of losing telemovie-like dog fights that captivate wide-eyed children, or the latest clash of civilisations hysteria of the world's internet Proud Boys. But it does gain leverage over what it can, where it can, as it's done in Hong Kong.

Meanwhile, resources have been diverted away from the only solution that can ever work in this case at any time horizon, short or long: broad-based multilateral trade agreement which sets standards while constraining, nudging, penalising and rewarding. More time is lost to get it right, much to the relief of China's hardline wing whose support is now sky-high.

Countries like Australia need to put everything into ensuring Biden and co. get a new TPP in place pronto. Given the pandemic and the domestic chaos of the US, that itself will be a major war, and indeed is the only fight right now, along with dealing with Covid (in some ways, it's the very same fight). Make people like Paul Keating and Gareth Evans special envoys, or whoever their younger equivalents may be (do younger versions even exist among the current talentless pool of fools?). Do what you have to do.

Imagine looking back at the pitiful, pitiful irony of Little Johnny going into Iraq and getting a Man of Steel medallion from George W. for the sake of monumental failure, death and chaos, and yet the when something worth fighting for comes along — urgent international cooperation to achieve constructive outcomes at a critical world juncture — the moment is lost in the clueless din of fist-waving idiots.

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:51 pm
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I think that’s an excellent and well-argued post, PTID, and I went along with it right up until – I’m sorry to say – your suggested solution, which is a non-starter.

There’s a reason the Democrats (even including the otherwise out-of-touch Hillary Clinton) moved away from the TPP in 2016, and that’s because it is domestic political poison. Agreements of that kind are devastating for local industry, and, for what it’s worth, a godsend for right-populist movements (not to mention the Amazons, Apples and Disneys of the world, which benefit in another way at the expense of all of us); you don’t have to look much further to understand why America went and did something as crazy as electing Donald Trump.

I don’t think there’s a hope in hell that Biden resurrects it, and I think that’s honestly probably for the best. We can agree that protectionism is bad economics and that, say, it was ridiculous for Australia to have a car industry, but a hardline free-trade position is just as destructive. More specifically, there were very valid concerns about what countries like Australia might have to give up in TPP negotiations, and stuff like the ISDS provisions (allowing corporations to sue nation-state signatories for "harmful" domestic policies like, say, raising the minimum wage) was a genuine threat to democracy and gave authoritarian states like China precisely the kind of power that people like me are worried about.

Perhaps all such nasties could be negotiated out, but how likely is that when we’re not in the driver’s seat? I would far prefer not to put all our eggs in the basket of a massive multilateral trade agreement that primarily benefits superpowers like China and the US; far better to continue with piecemeal arrangements that offer some benefits without selling the farm. Perhaps that sounds like an economist’s nightmare, but for me there’s too much else at stake for us not to find a middle ground between the rogering of a TPP and the self-immolation of Brexit. We don’t need to antagonise China, but neither do we need to sign our name in blood, maximising short-term prosperity but fostering domestic alienation, resentment and racism in the process.
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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:38 pm
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^Notice I usually use use the term 'TPP-like' or a phrase like 'a new TPP'. I don't mean the very same thing with the same sentiment or motivation, and certainty not called 'TPP'.

The balance of power has started to shift markedly from the days where everyone rubber stamped American interests, so I think that concern is becoming outdated. The old left view used to have a point (while quietly pocketing ANZUS guarantees), but in a multipolar world facing transnational crises, those concerns have dropped way down the list. Japan, South Korea, India and Southeast Asia provide an increasing counter-balance to the US in any such agreement.

The fear that you might get pushed around by the US, having just dusted off the stench of Iraq and Afghanistan, had billions wiped off your GDP by Trump, are getting the raw deal of much worse pandemic mismanagement in other economies, and are now getting pushed around by China, would seem to support the need for taking advantage of this new multilateral milieu. And the last thing you want is the US doing something even more idiotic in 'distant' Asia than Trump's trade war.

Unless Australia enjoys playing the victim, it ought to do something genuinely courageous about it. As I say, that's the real fight.

Biden's economic and trade team most definitely do have an appetite for such an approach. The problem is them dealing with the pandemic and Trump's wreckage first, and as ever a lunatic opposition. But the groundwork can start right now. Biden promised multilateralism, so he has a mandate to look at it. Moreover, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and others are already in a quasi-treaty with the US.

Sure, the devil is always in the detail, but as you infer there are treaties and there are treaties. These things can be ironed out. And no one is suggesting a union, which is quite a different level of integration altogether, like the highly contiguous and interdependent EU.

My fear is that people really are feckless cowards and Facebook dimwits, so a massive multilateral treaty is less exciting than skirmishes and tough talk, while motivated lunacy from the far left and far right opposing it with delusional notions of how economies work will dominate the airwaves. I agree with you the far right and oppositional right would have a field day, but that's part of the fight. As innate wreckers, they do that to anything worthwhile.

That said, if there's an alternative with more favourable politics, I'm by no means against it. I'm not up for making it harder than it needs to be; there's just no other option in sight. In fact, all indications suggest that unless you win these battles, the alternative is Brexit and Trump; chaos, wreckage, devaluation and decline with very little say on anything.

(On matters of economics, we can talk about that separately, but trade blocks it is for now).

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pietillidie 



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PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:15 am
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Okay, here's the kind of thing that's going on regardless. You don't want this to be hidden in the minor pages or in the FinTimes so it gets no scrutiny. It might be great (although the very presence of Dimwit Johnson regularly indicates otherwise), or it could be one of those ugly deals that drives down quality of life while no one is looking. I've got no time to read about it now, it just caught my eye the feed.

Quote:
Boris Johnson is to mark the first anniversary of Britain leaving the EU — the world’s largest trading bloc — by formally applying to join a trade group in the Pacific.

The British prime minister hopes US president Joe Biden will also join the group, opening a backdoor to closer UK-US trade ties as hopes of an early trade deal between London and Washington fade.

Critics claimed that a trade deal with 11 countries on the other side of the world would bring limited economic benefit to the UK, and saw no prospect of Mr Biden being in any rush to join the group.

But Mr Johnson said membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership would prove that “one year after our departure from the EU we are forging new partnerships”.

“Applying to be the first new country to join the CPTPP demonstrates our ambition to do business on the best terms with our friends and partners all over the world and be an enthusiastic champion of global free trade,” he added. 

The CPTPP includes fast-growing economies including Mexico, Malaysia and Vietnam along with established regional players such as Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.


Ignore Johnson's futile efforts to distract from the utter chaos of post-Brexit UK, the question is whether this sort of thing can form the basis of something substantial (and constructive).

https://www.ft.com/content/000afd84-8c12-4cf2-8639-5b0f8e4092b7

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stui magpie Gemini

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Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:11 pm
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Quote:
The Chinese government's alleged actions in Xinjiang have violated every single provision in the United Nations' Genocide Convention, according to an independent report by more than 50 global experts in human rights, war crimes and international law.

The report, released Tuesday by the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy think tank in Washington DC, claimed the Chinese government "bears state responsibility for an ongoing genocide against the Uyghur in breach of the (UN) Genocide Convention."


yeah, but according to China they're the ones being picked on.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/09/asia/china-uyghurs-xinjiang-genocide-report-intl-hnk/index.html

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stui magpie Gemini

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:20 pm
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Quote:
The past few months has seen something of a stalemate in China's escalating trade sanctions against Australia. Things haven't improved at all, but at least they haven't deteriorated further.

Last year, barely a fortnight went by without China dishing out some form of additional punishment on all sorts of Australian goods from coal to barley, beef, wine, wheat, cotton, rock lobster, timber, sugar and copper concentrate.

China was remarkably frank about why it was targeting Australia, listing 14 grievances in a dossier handed to a Nine Network reporter in Canberra.

Australia refused to budge on any front and now it's about to test Beijing's temper once more. The Prime Minister will join his US, Japanese and Indian counterparts early Saturday morning Australian time for the first leader-level (virtual) meeting of what's known as the "Quad".

If calling for an inquiry into the origins of a global pandemic upset Beijing so much, one wonders how this will go down.


I expect it will go down like a wrought iron hang glider, but far kem

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-11/the-quad-leaders-meeting-china-trade-test-relationship/13234080

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:55 am
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The following is the thing our country can actually control and should be concerned about. This particular link concerns the currying of influence within the LNP but the issue is a more pervasive one, of course. We all know that China is a powerful global player. We can't do much about that but we can try to remain vigilant to ensure that our elected representatives - and their party machines - don't become captive to foreign interests that conflict with ours.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-12/asio-assessment-revealed-in-haha-liu-court-application/13234740
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:13 am
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^

Yep. I would think any labor supporters should be following the advice about glass houses and stones in this case. The CCP aren't interested in party politics, they want to grow influence and will seek to do it anyway they can.

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:15 am
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^ Yes, I think this is about the risk of corruption and influence - not party politics. I posted that story because it detailed ASIO's views in what I took to be a reasonably illuminating way, rather than because it concerned attempts to curry influence in the LNP.
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