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Russian invasion of Ukraine

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2022 11:32 am
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Seems like the US have had their fun and decided that it's time to drop Ukrainians like a hot potato:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/06/us-says-zelenskiy-risks-allies-ukraine-fatigue-if-he-rejects-russia-talks-report

Personally, I have mixed feelings on this. On the one hand, I agree that a diplomatic solution is urgent and that the sooner a treaty can be negotiated, the better. On the other, the sad reality is that any deal now is likely to end up overwhelmingly in Russia's favour, with Ukraine now having lost a chunk of its eastern territory (Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, along with the previous loss of Crimea) as a result of the war. That may be a glass-half-empty approach given that the initial Russian goal was regime change, which appears to have comprehensively failed, but it is nonetheless a considerably weakened position (and Ukrainians might reasonably wonder if this gradual eating away of territory is just a transitional stage and launching pad for the next invasion).

It goes without saying that any acceptance of this from Zelenskyy would be disastrous for his presidency. I'm not a particular fan, but I'm also aware that he's a relative moderate and that Ukrainian nationalists will capitalise on any treaty that entails loss of territory – which will inevitably lead to ongoing civil war and domestic repression for the foreseeable future, if they put their money where their mouth is. War sadly has a way of empowering the worst people on both sides.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:08 pm
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Perhaps the biggest miscalculation was everyone thinking Putin was somehow dispassionately rational rather than just another hyperventilating fruit cake. Delusion can motivate by giving people a false sense of control, but once the luck runs out or people start believing their own nonsense, and reality demands more than just public trickery, what's left?

In fact, this is in many ways the theme of the week, with similarly delusional malignant narcissists Trump and Musk also hitting the brick wall of reality. Both have been similarly overrated or seen to have special insight, when in the end what they're really good at is manipulating public opinion.

This makes sense because the defining feature of narcissism is the fevered obsession with manipulating opinion in order to protect the fragile, undeveloped self that lies beneath. So, of course they become particularly adept at manipulation having done this for a lifetime. But success in propaganda only implies that a person is good at, well, propaganda. What about when reality demands more than just bluster?

With Putin, I think the stereotyping of Russian culture very much helped nurture the perception that he was somehow coldly rational. Instead, he is just another narcissistic loon who leveraged that mistaken stereotype to create an image at odds with his actual ranting and raving self.

Now the fever has broken and he's been exposed, it's hard to see him rehabilitating that image. Of course the risk now, as with Trump and Musk, is the lashing out of the exposed narcissist.

Quote:
Making Russia great again is a theme Mr. Putin has elaborated over many years now, from bemoaning the collapse of the Soviet Union as a “genuine tragedy” to venting his consuming resentment of the “so-called West” — essentially the United States — for not accepting Russia, and himself, as an equal in global power.

He has drawn liberally on his rewriting of Russian history and culture — as he did again in the Valdai speech, citing, among others, Solzhenitsyn and Dostoyevsky — to claim a spiritual superiority over a West he sees as decadent and decaying. Never mind that these two writers were both repressed by the state, Soviet and czarist, and that Russia is widely perceived as a kleptocracy.

Much of Mr. Putin’s criticism of the West is shared, of course, by the West. Yet Mr. Putin approaches not from an informed analysis but through a Soviet prism that profoundly distorted the West, and projected onto it all autocratic and repressive machinations of the Kremlin.

There is no soft power in this equation, no appreciation of reasons Ukraine might be more attracted to Europe than to Russia, but only spheres of control parceled out according to rules of conquest and control that the West rejected after World War II. The longings of the Ukrainians have no part in this; Russia’s — Mr. Putin’s — mission is to return to Russia what is Russia’s by right of might.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/opinion/putin-russian-military-ukraine.html

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:02 pm
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https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/andrew-forrest-s-740-million-bet-on-ukraine-20221116-p5byx4.html

But....he's in mining, he should pay more tax?

<Discussion of Twiggy's taxes moved here: https://magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=91356>

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Mon Dec 26, 2022 2:48 am
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A story you just need to read for Xmas. I certainly share the fears of commenters regarding people's identities and retaliation though, so one hopes to god that is in hand. It might be they've had enough and wanted to do it in full knowledge for the greater good, I guess. Brave to the core.

I messaged my Ukrainian friends looking forward to 2023 for them, reaffirming my commitment to their cause as a citizen here for as long as it takes. Small beans on my part, but the support within the UK (and broadly across Western countries) has been excellent, for once representing me.

NYT wrote:
How Citizen Spies Foiled Putin’s Grand Plan for One Ukrainian City

A partisan cell in Kherson spied on, undermined and even hunted down Russian soldiers. Now that Vladimir V. Putin’s forces are gone, people feel free to talk — and to brag a little.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/25/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-defiance-russia.html

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LaurieHolden Aquarius

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Joined: 22 Feb 2009
Location: Victoria Park

PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2023 8:55 am
Post subject: How the European Map Has Changed Over 2,400 YearsReply with quote

I've long been interested on the subject of Geographical boundaries, and how they've moved over time.
In the decades following WWII, the political boundaries of the European map remained relatively stable—that is, until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Almost overnight, the country’s entire western border splintered into independent nations. When the dust settled, there were 15 breakaway republics, six of which were in Europe.

The modern borders of Ukraine were established following their Independence, in 1991.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/2400-years-of-european-history/

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:48 am
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Me too! I love these depictions of changing borders (one of my most cherished books is The Times Atlas of European History, which provides a great picture of how things have shifted over time).

re: Ukraine, I feel like the story’s a little more complicated. From memory, all of the post-Soviet breakaway states’ borders were set in stone decades prior to 1991 – some as far back as pre-WW2 – when they constituted the fifteen Soviet republics that made up the USSR. Ukraine’s current borders were established in 1946, with the exception of Crimea, which was only added by Khrushchev in 1954. (This goes some way to explaining why the peninsula is so culturally and politically associated with Russia and why the Russian Federation’s annexation of the territory in 2014 met with relatively little resistance.)

Otherwise, modern Ukraine has indeed been at a real crossroads of various empires and peoples for centuries, as has Russia itself. I found this discussion of its past (in the context of the current war) quite illuminating: https://fans.fm/p/wQjQe4O

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:12 am
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Just checked in on my friends after the most recent bombing.

I don't think I'm alone when I say that every additional person the SOB kills makes me even angrier. The slime bag was hoping enthusiasm would wane over time, but people are onto him. Support from the US, Germany, Poland and the UK, among others, has been incredibly strong and consistent.

What's the feeling in Oz? Does it feel too far away?

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Jezza Taurus

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Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2023 4:55 pm
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Civil war brewing in Russia?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-24/live-wanger-mercenaries-russia-rostov-yevgeny-prigozhin-mutiny/102519712

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2023 5:23 pm
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^

Yeah, I was reading about that earlier on a few different sites. Very interesting twist.

It wil be interesting how it plays out, I read something the other day comparing how Ukranians are signing up to fight and willing to go where angels fear to tread for their country whereas the Russians contain a lot of conscripts who don't want to be there and the Russians have to deploy special troops at the rear of advances to shoot Russian soldiers who retreat.

This Wagner mob may not meet a lot of resistance if they're serious. Big question would be, what happens if they win?

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What'sinaname Libra



Joined: 29 May 2010
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:02 pm
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Putin is f*&ked. Now, what happens when Wagner seize power. Maybe they will paint Russia.
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Pi Gemini



Joined: 13 Feb 2006
Location: SA

PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:26 pm
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Old Crapcan is making a few speeches, reminds me of Gadhafi ; thing is Wagner is not the only PMC in Russia, could get very messy.
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Magpietothemax Taurus

magpietothemax


Joined: 28 Apr 2013


PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:33 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
^

Yeah, I was reading about that earlier on a few different sites. Very interesting twist.

It wil be interesting how it plays out, I read something the other day comparing how Ukranians are signing up to fight and willing to go where angels fear to tread for their country whereas the Russians contain a lot of conscripts who don't want to be there and the Russians have to deploy special troops at the rear of advances to shoot Russian soldiers who retreat.

This Wagner mob may not meet a lot of resistance if they're serious. Big question would be, what happens if they win?

I have also read, and watched videos on youtube, of Ukrainian military police bursting into homes and arresting young men attempting to avoid conscription becasue they are unwilling to die for the Zelensky regime and its US backers. The Zelensky regime has outlawed democracy in Ukraine, so many in the Ukrainian population are aware that its claims to be fighting for "freedom, democracy and national liberation" are sordid lies.

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:06 pm
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What'sinaname wrote:
Putin is f*&ked. Now, what happens when Wagner seize power. Maybe they will paint Russia.


They’re certainly no improvement on Putin in many respects – they have a lot of neo-nazi elements and would be likely to shift Russia in an even more openly fascist direction if they took power – but from what I’m hearing Prigozhin also wants to pull out of Ukraine, which would obviously be welcome.

My impression is that the Russian military should be far too strong and well resourced for them (and Putin obviously won’t go quietly), but the question is whether enough Russian forces decide to break ranks and throw their lot in with Wagner. That’s where the balance of control could be decided.

I’m not sure what the best outcome is here, but the upshot of this coup succeeding would likely be more instability, and perhaps there’s a path for some kind of viable democracy out of that turmoil. Little reason to be optimistic about that given Russia’s recent past, and I certainly don’t wish violent chaos on the Russian people, but history tends to suggest it’s often the only way tyrants get brought down.

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Magpietothemax Taurus

magpietothemax


Joined: 28 Apr 2013


PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:40 pm
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David wrote:
Seems like the US have had their fun and decided that it's time to drop Ukrainians like a hot potato:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/06/us-says-zelenskiy-risks-allies-ukraine-fatigue-if-he-rejects-russia-talks-report

That may be a glass-half-empty approach given that the initial Russian goal was regime change, which appears to have comprehensively failed, but it is nonetheless a considerably weakened position (and Ukrainians might reasonably wonder if this gradual eating away of territory is just a transitional stage and launching pad for the next invasion).

It goes without saying that any acceptance of this from Zelenskyy would be disastrous for his presidency. I'm not a particular fan, but I'm also aware that he's a relative moderate and that Ukrainian nationalists will capitalise on any treaty that entails loss of territory – which will inevitably lead to ongoing civil war and domestic repression for the foreseeable future, if they put their money where their mouth is. War sadly has a way of empowering the worst people on both sides.


a) The initial aim of Russia was not regime change in Ukraine, but to pressure Ukraine, and via Ukraine its backers in Washington/NATO, to provide security guarantees to Russia against the continued expansion of NATO towards its borders. Putin represents a dominant layer of Russian oligarchs who demand their right to exploit the mineral wealth of Russia and the Russian working class. Had the Zelensky government been prepared to offer such guarantees, the invasion would have stopped.
b) Zelensky would never offer such guarantees because he is a tool of the US government, which is aiming for regime change/civil war in Russia, in order to dismember Russia and create a set of impotent statelets which would welcome the entry of US corporations and finance capital into Russia, displacing the Russian oligarchs that Putin represents, thereby seizing the profits and wealth of Putin's cronies.
c) There is no way that the US will accept any kind of negotiated settlement. The entire credibility of the US is at stake. The entire question of the US dollar as the global currency is at stake. If a negotiated settlement between Zelensky and Putin occurred, NATO would split apart, and the US dollar as the global currency would be fatally undermined. Zelensky is a puppet of the US government, and acts accordinglyl.

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Woods Of Ypres 



Joined: 27 May 2003
Location: Yugoslavia

PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:57 pm
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I actually don't mind Priggy, he stands up for his boys and doesn't mince words. ruffles a few feathers of course, but no doubt his soldiers will die for him.

not sure his true agenda but can't fault him for his leadership of his men.
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