What would a fresh start look like?

[Piesnchess]

WE Will be a much younger team next season, i can see at least 8 players leaving, including retire ments of reid, varks, thomas, maybe mayne, and some de listings, theres a few of them. Next season, bring in all the kids, Kelly, Ruscoe, Daics still young, the Browns, IQ, and via the draft, use our first pick for talented, fast centreline kid, and draft more kids. Id only lay out big dough etc for say, Hogan, at full forward. Going forward i reckon we will be a much younger team, freshen up, like the Saints have done, it works.

[LaurieHolden]

I'm going with 2021, 2022 will be an improvement on that...

I ranked our players out of 5 this year and what level I expect they can improve to in 2021.
I reckon we’re a 20% swing side based on current contribution (+%) with growth upside (++%) potential for another finals tilt in 2021.

Current (+%) 52/110 possible – 57.20%
• B 9
• HB 9

• C 10
• FOLL 9

• HF 7
• F 4

• I/C 4

Upside (++%) 66/110 – 72.60%
++14 = +15.40%

Where's the other +4.54%? I reckon we're a 5 goal better side in Melbourne.

B: J.Crisp (+4%) 4, J.Roughead (+2%) 2,J.Howe (+5%)5
HB: B.Maynard (+3%) 3, D.Moore (+5%) 5, I.Quaynor (+1%)(++2%) 3

C: J.Daicos (+2%)(++1%) 3, S.Pendlebury (+5%) 5, A.Treloar (+3%) 3
FOLL: B.Grundy (+3%)(++2%) 5, T.Adams (+4%) 4, JDG (+2%)(++3%) 5

HF: S.Sidebottom (+4%)(+1%)5, B.Mihocek (+2%) 2, J.Stephenson (+1%)(++2%) 3
F: W.Kelly (+1%)(++1%) 2, M.Cox (+1%)(++1%) 2, J.Elliott (+2%) 2

I/C: J.Madgen (+1%), J.Noble (+1%) (++1%) 2, T.Brown (+1%)(++1%) 2, Wills (1%),
EMG : C.Brown (+1%), N.Murphy(++1%), L.Greenwood (+1%), D.Cameron (1%)

As it stands we need a more consistent output from the back end of our list, that’s where our improvement must come from. I don’t expect to get significantly more out of our top liners Pendles, Howe, Moore, Crisp, Adams etc.

Our best players for 2020 were Adams, Crisp, Moore and Pendles.
Most improved, Daicos, Madgen and Quaynor.
We lack "skilled" players to deliver output consistently, in big moments.
Those skilled players are required to give our forwards better delivery and provide more effective links in general play, those that demand the football.
The Treloar trade to date is a bust on what we require from him. 2 first round picks and a 6 year deal, we’re on the wrong side of that. Hasn’t yet claimed an All Australian spot let alone a Copeland. Has been named once in the AA squad since he joined us.
JDG must go into to the midfield and play the Dangerfield / Dusty role.
If Kelly develops into a reliable forward, all the better.

The Draft ~ Picks: 12, 35, 39, 68, 84, 104 and 122
We go to the draft likely to select Reef McInnes from the Oakleigh Chargers under the NGA rules.
Much will depend on rival bids and the number of points we will have to use. e.g. when the Dogs attempted to use their pick 5 on Darcy Moore forcing us to match it with pick 8.

A current AFL squad consists of around 45 players, including category B rookies is set to go to a list of 40 (it's believed the starting position on playing lists in the negotiations between the AFL and AFLPA is 40, whether that's 38 on the primary list and two rookies or a flat 40) ~
• retain 31
• 7 from the 2020 draft
• category A or B** x 2

**Category B rule is designed for specific types, including international recruits, players who have not registered in an Australian Football competition for three years, or NSW or Queensland zone selections.
Next Generation Academy prospects can also be eligible for this.

What I’d like to see going into 2021 ~

-15 trade / de-listings, leaving us with 31.

Trade : W.Hoskin-Elliott, T.Phillips, B.Sier, C.Mayne, J.Thomas ($1.5m)
De-list : D.Beams, T.Langdon L.Dunn, B.Reid, T.Varcoe, T.Broomhead, M.Scharenberg, T.Lynch, A. Tohill, M.Keane ($1.5-$2m)

Re-sign : JDG, Moore, Bianco, Atu, Brown x 2, Daicos, Madgen, Mihocek, Murphy, Pendles, Rantall, Roughhead, Ruscoe, Wills, Wilson (ca B rookie)
If we achieved cap relief from Beams, that's even sweeter to secure the above.

Trade in : 3x 2-4% grade players = $1.5m e.g.
• a Half forward +3%
• an Inside mid +2%

Draft x 4 :
• NGA - Reef McInnes Height: 192.1cm Weight: 83.8kg Position: Inside midfielder/Forward
• Key Forward ~ Jackson Callow
Best position: Key forward
Height, weight: 192cm, 88kg
Recruited from: Tasmania Devils
Projected draft range: 10-40
Rationale: A key forward with a deceptively hard-to-defend game - his strength and one-on-one marking blending in nicely with his agility, work at ground level and capability to turn opponents inside out.

Strengths:
Overhead marking, one-on-one marking, contested marking, body size and strength, reading of the ball in flight, keeps his feet in the contest, clean at ground level, agility, turns opponents inside out

Weaknesses:
Athleticism, unclear versatility

https://www.afl.com.au/video/450032/meet-the-forward-with-vice-like-hands?videoId=450032&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1590933600001

• 2 x prospects

Coaching staff
• A new midfield coach (much is personnel but we simply need a re-set here)
• A recognised ruck-coach (you don’t spend $1m a year on an asset and not give it the attention it requires)

2021 PLAYING SQUAD – (ADD TRADES AND DRAFTEES)
ADAMS, Taylor (vc)
BIANCO, Trent
BOSENAVULAGI, Atu
BROWN, Callum L.
BROWN, Tyler
CAMERON, Darcy
COX, Mason
CRISP, Jack
DAICOS, Josh
DE GOEY, Jordan
ELLIOTT, Jamie
GREENWOOD, Levi
GRUNDY, Brodie
HOWE, Jeremy
KELLY, Will
MADGEN, Jack
MAYNARD, Brayden
MIHOCEK, Brody
MOORE, Darcy
MURPHY, Nathan
NOBLE, John
PENDLEBURY, Scott (c)
QUAYNOR, Isaac
RANTALL, Jay
ROUGHEAD, Jordan
RUSCOE, Trey
SIDEBOTTOM, Steele (vc)
STEPHENSON, Jaidyn
TRELOAR, Adam
WILLS, Rupert
WILSON, Tom

Go Pies...

[uncanny]

Clear analysis there LaurieHolden

I agree with the points you raise and also think this article is close to the mark

https://www.theroar.com.au/2020/09/23/collingwoods-broken-system-is-doomed-to-fail/

As well as consistently losing the midfield battle and not being able to address this over several years and carrying half a dozen players each week who are either past it or not up to it, the way they have treated Darcy Moore pretty much sums up the main issue with the Collingwood side for me.

Kicks 5 on debut. Struggles with injuries for a few years then all of a sudden at the start of 2018 he is deemed a defender. And yes he is a good intercept mark and penetrating accurate kick. Good closing speed. Good traits for a forward? But he's not a defender one on one like a McGovern or May. He is the tall forward the side desperately needs. Still true that you base the side around your centre half forward. He is good and smart enough to be able to attract his own ball and create opportunities for others.

But no play him up the wrong end of the ground. Week after week. Rarely if ever make a change in the course of the game when things aren't working. Which as the article points out is pretty often. Opposition coaches must love not having to worry about negating his forward threat.

The defensive, system oriented mindset can only get you so far. Too vanilla. Not enough x factor.

[LaurieHolden]

^^ Look I think you're right.

We've existing salary cap issues and key signings to ink. With chat leaning towards trying to get the likes of Jeremy Cameron in, well I reckon that's fanciful. It rings of the idiom cutting off the nose to spite our face...
The Jeremy Cameron move I just can't see it happening nor do I believe Ben Brown is the answer, unless the defensive game style the competition has trended towards, changes. If we were to bring in a forward, I'd prefer to go after Gunston.

With that I'd be all for switching Moore. I too believe we have one of the best key forwards in the league, just at the wrong end.
Until Howe comes back, perhaps we don't think we have that luxury as Howe plays 15cm taller. Playing against the likes of the Kings, Lynches etc over the next decade will present plenty of headaches.

Could Cameron play a reserve defensive tall role? If Madgen goes to CHB, we'd give away 11cm. With Cameron there would be no change. But that's where the comparison might end. Mind you, Cameron does have good hands and CHB is an easier position than a key forward.

Will Kelly is a Jack Gunston proto-type. Gunston in 2021 would be an upgrade but you risk delaying the development of Kelly.

Playing too tall? Well Cox shouldn't move anywhere beyond 30m of the goal line. And Cameron & Cox can give Grundy a chop out of the ruck at either end, allowing Grundy to play a more midfield role.

So with that, I've tinkered with this.

B: J.Crisp (+4%) 4, J.Roughead (+2%) 2, J.Howe (+5%)5
HB: B.Maynard (+3%) 3, J.Madgen (+1%)(++1%) 2, I.Quaynor (+1%)(++2%) 3

C: J.Daicos (+2%)(++1%) 3, S.Pendlebury (+5%) 5, A.Treloar (+3%) 3
FOLL: B.Grundy (+3%)(++2%) 5, T.Adams (+4%) 4, JDG (+2%)(++3%) 5

HF: S.Sidebottom (+4%)(+1%)5, D.Moore (+5%) 5, B.Mihocek (+2%) 2,
F: J Gunston (+4%) 4, M.Cox (+1%)(++1%) 2, J.Elliott (+2%) 2

I/C: J.Stephenson (+1%)(++2%) 3, T.Brown (+1%)(++1%) 2, Wills (1%) 2, W.Kelly (+1%)(++1%) 2
EMG : D.Cameron (1%), J.Noble (+1%) (++1%) 2, N.Murphy (++1%), L.Greenwood (+1%)

Upside (++%) 73/110 – 80.30%

Leave the side as it is, I reckon we’re a 20% swing side based on current contribution (+%) with growth upside (++%) potential, if we're bold for another finals tilt in 2021.
As it stands, I have us at a Current (+%) 52/110 possible – 57.20%. The 20% swing is if everything goes right...to move towards greater certainty and a more consistent top 30 squad, I reckon switch Moore and get Gunston if he's available.

We have to get rid of the plodders and those players on the list that deliver no game presence. Namely Phillips and WHE. Move them and the likes of the others I suggested off the list, we might just be able to dislodge / accommodate Gunston and continue to nurture developing talent.

There's no reason we couldn't hold that group together for 2 years.
If that side couldn't contend for a Top4 spot to launch at a flag, we might as well give it away.

[VicParkTragic]

[inxs88]

Nobody loves a deep dive list analysis more than me. Great post Laurie!!!

[uncanny]

[LaurieHolden]

^
On the position changes, I'd like to see Treloars role redefined, drop 5kg and become a leaner winger. Treloar needs space, he just doesn't operate as well in heavy traffic. Panicked handballs are a result.

Sideys ability to play off either foot coupled with his creative play making ability should lend him to be an extremely dangerous half forward. I could see him kicking 20 goals in a season with just as many goal assists.

If we dont make several bold personnel and positional changes, we're going to regress very quickly. The current system is easily interpreted and not one that lends itself to claiming a top 4 spot.

[K]

[Pies4shaw]

[LaurieHolden]

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

We can go on but it starts with getting rid of buckley and the coaching panel. Its that simple.

[Lazza]

[piedys]

[LaurieHolden]

This thread might need a re-visit...