Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

whats everyones tips for this corona virus crisis. My tips are stage 3 will last 3-4 months stage 2 then another 2 months.if stage 4 is enforced then everything extended a month or 2. 8 months for restrictions to be slowly lifted. International borders closed though till usa Europe asia have the situation under control looking at 16 months. Don't want a second wave that's all. Economy starting to open up 9-10 months.Vaccine 12-13 months away. The new "normal" (happy days) 13 months time. These are all approx.

[Pies4shaw]

Given the fanciful information many countries are publishing about their numbers of cases, here’s my estimates, reverse-engineered from the reported numbers of deaths and average infection mortality rates. I have left China out because their death data also looks like cow pats.

Italy - in excess of 2.2 million cases
Spain - about 1.7 million cases
USA - in excess of 1.1 million cases
France - approaching 1 million cases
UK - approaching 550,000 cases
Iran - 500,000 cases
....

Australia - at least 5,500 cases

Worldwide (one can’t avoid using China’s fairytales here) it looks like there are well in excess of 9 million cases (compared with present reporting of slightly under 1.1 million cases).

I am certainly not suggesting that my figures are “correct”. I am just performing these calculations to try to get a handle on the extent of under-reporting, on average, around the globe.

[What'sinaname]

I think the normal in 13 months is about right.

There's one thing fixing the situation here, but it'l take a while for the virus to settle down across the globe.

I suspect no international travel this year, or if so, quarantine rules will apply and maybe only to select countries, like NZ.

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Over coming the debt: 6-7 years approx

[Pies4shaw]

Finally, it’s not just a joke:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/corona-beer-company-halts-production-as-coronavirus-pandemic-grips-mexico/news-story/2b6e81d222e01a46e7cec9bef3127be5

[K]

The puzzle of coronavirus: a huge variation in rates of death and severe disease across the globe

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-puzzle-of-coronavirus-a-huge-variation-in-rates-of-death-and-severe-disease-across-the-globe-20200402-p54gkr.html

"Yet Allen Cheng, professor of infectious diseases at Monash university and an expert adviser to the federal government, warns against drawing too much comfort from our early figures. "The key is to keep an eye on the unlinked cases, the cases where you can’t work out where they’ve come from," he says. "If we start picking up a lot of [those], then there is a big iceberg there and we need to work out how big it is."

One of the most striking features of the pandemic is the huge variation in rates of death and severe disease across the globe. Countries doing better than most include the East Asian grouping of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Germany has also kept a firmer lid on its death rate (around 1 per cent of its reported cases thus far).

Italy and Spain, however, are undergoing horrors familiar to anyone following the nightly news...
...

Stanford University epidemiologist Professor John Ioannidis has expressed frustration at the extreme disparity in the testing data from different countries. "Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to [the virus] are being missed," he wrote recently. "We don't know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of 3 or 300."

Cheng agrees that the relative youth of Australian cases detected so far is holding down our case fatality rate. Leaving aside the passengers from cruise ships, "most of the cases have been travel-related and [those] travellers tend to be younger, people under 50, and the death rate and mortality is much lower in that group," he says.
...

"The other factor that often makes the death rate look quite low early on is that some of the people that have just got infection may still go on to die," Cheng adds. "That's really important at the very start of an outbreak - the death rate looks artificially low because the time to death is several [two to three] weeks." Eventually around 20 to 30 per cent of those in intensive care will end up losing the battle against the virus.
...

Gary Slutkin believes Western populations have, in general, been slower to heed the warnings of public health officials than those in the East.

"The Eastern mind is much more communal, the western mind is much more individual," he says. "In East Asia, their [government] systems are organised and generally speaking more efficient."
...

Testing remains key to controlling the outbreak here. As Slutkin says, "if you feel like you are overdoing it as a country or a city, or even as yourself, then that is the right feeling. Then overdo it some more"."

[Pies4shaw]

29: A Woman in her 70s has died in hospital in Victoria.

[Pies4shaw]

Paolo Maldini has recovered, thank goodness.

[Pies4shaw]

30: A man in his 80s who had pre-existing health concerns has died in the ACT.

[Jezza]

[Jezza]

[K]

[Tannin]

^ Apart from the pubs nonsense (which was anecdotal at best), it was an outstanding article, essentially sumarising the state of play. Well worth reading in full.

[Pies4shaw]

[Pies4shaw]

If this, from the ABC's coronavirus live update webpage, is correct, it is very interesting:

Mr Andrews said the majority of healthcare workers who have tested positive did not contract coronavirus as a result of their work.

"The vast majority of healthcare workers have not contracted the virus as a result of their work.

"Rather, they've been people who have travelled overseas or they've been the close contact of those people who have travelled overseas.

"That's not to downplay or in any way diminish the important work that our front-line workers are doing, there is an element of risk there.

"80 per cent plus of those health workers who have contracted the virus, have not got it from patients. They've got it from overseas travel or being a close contact of someone who has travelled overseas."