What's going on?

[Pies2016]

[MatthewBoydFanClub]

There's some emotive points here so look at it a more rationally. Nick Daicos says he hurt his knee during the Port Adelaide game, but didn't think anything of it. He played poorly against Carlton and then the knee completely gave way in the game against Hawthorn.

Next. You're always going to have a letdown after the toughest game of the season against the second placed team. Combine that with Daicos being injured something else is bound to happen. It's the laws of nature. Bad news is followed by more bad news. Darcy Moore has two shockers against Carlton and Hawthorn. Usually when the captain is down it has a demoralizing effect on the rest of the team, especially Quaynor and Noble who play alongside Moore.

Next. Mitchell is feeling the effects of a long season. At one point he was subbed. I'm actually suspicious Mitchell is playing injured. He's the sort of player that goes and goes until he drops over a cliff.

Next. Adams found his niche playing on the half forward line. With Mitchell down, Adams is required for center duties. Both Adams and Mitchell are essentially one paced players. They're up against fitter young mids who are running rings around them at the moment.

Next. You have two players in Howe and Lipinski recovering from serious injuries struggling to find their feet in the second half of the season. I suspect Lipinski is favoring his shoulder, wanting to protect it. That's why he's appearing to play soft footy. Howe should be playing on the half forward line if I was the coach.

Pendlebury and De Goey - in my opinion both are playing good footy. It's difficult to provide a spark if the rest of the team are letting you down.

Murphy and Maynard - in my opinion both have been fantastic holding up their end of the ground. I have no idea why Murphy cops it here. We're going to miss him.

Cox - It's easy to dominate the VFL at this level, but the reality is Cox has had a relative poor month and deserved being dropped.

Mihocek - like Mitchell I suspect he's playing injured. He normally plays through the entire season, but he's already sat out a couple of games. If it was Nathan Buckley I suspect he would have given Mihocek more time out to recover, but McRae tends to be a bit more risky and play players.

Johnson - just not the sort of player you'd play if your life depended on it. Sometimes he pulls something out of the hat and other times he does nothing. He's a typical Steve Johnson type of player you either play on the half forward line or not at all. It's a mistake to play him as a substitute ruckman.

So it's basically as Graham Wright said after the Hawthorn game. We're not playing well. Reading any more into than that won't get us anywhere. I just wish we had played more of Macrae and McInnes during the season in the senior team. They'd be handy to have to provide a bit of speed out of the center now in the absence of Mitchell or Adams.

[swoop42]

Clubs have gone to school on us and have little left to learn.

It started with Brisbane as early as round 4, continued with Melbourne and has been consolidated over the last 2 weeks. Hell even in many of our wins the opposition has had quarters or halves played on their terms.

This isn't a criticism, you expect your opposition to dissect your game plan and put tactics in place to take away your strengths and expose your weaknesses.

We would be no different.

So yes we have been worked out but we were worked out 2 weeks ago against Port but still found a way to win in a game with finals like pressure.

While history would suggest back half teams aren't Premiership winning ones and right now history is making a strong argument, I'm not going to throw in the towel on a side who has given us so many wonderful moments these past 2 years.

We are still capable of winning the flag from here but no game plan stands a chance if we bring the same level of effort and application we've witnessed these past 2 weeks.

It's time to become the hunter and not the prey.

[RudeBoy]

The bottom line is, regardless of injuries and individual form, our entire team has dropped off the manic intensity we brought to the contest earlier in the season. That's why I'm fairly positive that come September, we'll be right. Our whole team is playing below the level they have shown they can play at. We have a lot of room for improvement, and when we hit top gear, we'll all forget about this current form slump. Go Pies.

[shawthing]

[Pies2016]

[ANNODAM]

I’m concerned Carlton may snag one before we do.
😞

[Take_a_Screamer]

Comprehensive article...
Setting the scene and issues to address across the field

The Age: Daicos injury magnifies Magpies’ midfield nightmare
By Michael Gleeson, August 7, 2023 — 9.38am

Nick Daicos was having a bad game before it became a terrible day. And as terrible days go, this is close to as bad as it gets for Collingwood – losing their second-best player and young Brownlow favourite. Out played, out-muscled, out-thought, Collingwood then added injury to insult. Short of losing Darcy Moore who, putting aside his uncharacteristically poor game against Hawthorn when he fumbled to give up goals, remains their most important player, losing Daicos is a nightmare scenario for the loss of his run and artful creativity.

Yes, he would have to confront the reality that every club would now apply a Finn Maginness-level tag on him after the Hawk diligently blanketed him out of the game. Now Daicos has six weeks to heal and confront that inevitable heavy tag when it comes weekly.

The momentum Collingwood had following the Port Adelaide win has now not only been halted, there is a negative momentum to their season now that they will find hard to redress without Daicos, or Nathan Murphy who was also injured. The impact of the Daicos injury is profound for it magnifies an already significant problem for them. Daicos and Jordan De Goey are their key points of difference in a spluttering midfield. Collingwood already had a problem with an old, slow midfield, but losing Daicos has accentuated that problem.

Collingwood lost the centre clearances by 18 to three against Hawthorn. Remember this was the top side against the third bottom side. That was the worst centre clearance differential by any Collingwood team in 20 years. Three centre clearances for a match was the second worst for any team this year, behind only GWS who had two centre clearances against the Demons in round 16. It as also the second game for the year Collingwood did not score from a centre clearance, which is hardly surprising given they only had three of them. But this is not a new problem, even if it happened to be a problem of historically bad proportions. The problem for Collingwood is that the centre square was a major issue last year, and it has become so again this time around.

Chad Wingard put the Magpies’ midfield into perspective afterwards: “We kind of allowed uncontested marks that were going sideways or backwards. We really had a focus on trying to stop their run. We also knew we had an advantage ... in the centre bounce…” This year the Magpies rank equal 10th for centre bounce clearance differential – that is they have won slightly more centre clearances than they have lost, where last year they ranked 16th overall, losing the differential by an average of two per week.

For the first half of the year Tom Mitchell, the player brought in as a panacea for centre clearance maulings, was terrific, but his past six weeks have been poor. He has been rested and subbed out a couple of times. On Saturday he had a black mark on his thigh as he sat on the bench, suggesting he might have been carrying a cork, which might explain his form. Something has to. Compounding the problem is that Taylor Adams has also been poor. There was a query on whether Adams and Mitchell could play in the one side when they recruited Mitchell because they are both slow inside mids. Scott Pendlebury, also playing on the ball, is clever but has never been quick. For most of the year this was not a problem because Mitchell was doing what he was brought in to do and clearing the ball, and Adams was surprisingly effective as a half-forward. But now Mitchell’s form has fallen away and Adams is not picking up the slack. If Mitchell and Adams are not clearing the ball they offer little in run. That is why Daicos’ absence now is so damaging for Collingwood, and why it raises such questions not only for the midfield but more broadly for Craig McRae.

Collingwood has a number of issues to address across the field, from the impact of Murphy’s injury, to Ash Johnson demonstrating no improvement on Mason Cox in an unthreatening forward line. But Daicos’ absence is the most significant. McRae now faces a challenge the like of which he has not confronted in his short senior coaching career to date. When he took over and the Magpies lost games, there were no expectations of his team. Now there are. How will he unlock his midfield problem at a time when teams are also changing how they defend Collingwood to take pace out of the game and deny them the corridor?

The Hawks’ homework

That game illustrated as much about the growth of the Hawks as the loss of momentum of the Magpies Firstly, Hawthorn were prepared to tag Nick Daicos, but Collingwood were unprepared to put the same level of work or attention into Hawthorn’s most creative player, James Sicily, who was superb with 37 touches, 19 marks and three goal assists.

Last week Ross Lyon spent a lot of time devising a plan for Sicily and it worked. Collingwood could not subdue him. Further, the Tom Mitchell performance created an irresistible pointer to his former club’s decision to trade him. The Hawks were questioned for the depth of the cut they made to their list with trading out Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara. Yes, there was also the not insignificant matter of them paying $750,000 of those two players’ wages to play elsewhere this year, and they got very little back in trade terms, but Saturday was a showcase of why Hawthorn was happy to cut those losses to foster a new midfield.

Will Day has needed to play every week and Jai Newcombe is a bull. Hawthorn’s younger midfield looks more advanced now than they might have been with the old players still there. Mitchell was good for the first half of the year for Collingwood, but Hawthorn’s view would have been: “So what? We need a midfield for the next 10 years and that is improved by giving Day more time on ball.” Saturday made for a persuasive argument.

Source (needs login):
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/daicos-injury-magnifies-magpies-midfield-nightmare-20230806-p5duah.html

[K]

[pietillidie]

We are maturing is all. We knew the list was far from perfect; our strategy took the game by surprise; and the Mitchell-Nicky engine and an incredible refusal to be beaten papered over weaknesses. But it's nigh impossible to pause mid-momentum and say 'let's take two steps back'. That's why weaknesses subtly compound, eventually surface, and finally have to be faced down.

As I think Cam said in a thread somewhere, no decent story comes without complications, and that's where maturity comes from by definition. We've enjoyed some front-loaded success; the digging deep within is just as enjoyable, except its fruits are back-loaded.

Don't forget, Q has reached a whole new level. Jamie has become a mature leader. Cameron has become a beast. Joshy and Moorey are AA-level. A number of others have many level-above attributes, including de Goey, Bruzzy, McCreery, Ash, Ginni, Hilly and possibly Markov. Nicky is a generational player.

Sure, the combination of ageing stars, workhorses and known list gaps has finally bitten. To my mind, the goal heading into the finals is to better utilise those ageing stars and the workhorses to bring de Goey, Cameron, Jamie, Joshy, Q, Moorey, Bruzzy, McCreery, Ash and Hilly more to the fore.

E.g., at the back we can't have Moorey and Q permanently wrong-footed by getting belted at clearances and turning the ball over. That's takes away their strengths. Bruzzy has long been given the dirtiest godforsaken defensive jobs, taking him out of the play. Of course, that's happening because we're playing low-percentage footy at the clearances, with our approach built on clean fly-throughs and miraculously slick hands, both of which will always struggle in bad weather and heavily contested/congested games. If the opposition doesn't win at the source, they simply collect the fumble or miscued handpass. That's low-percentage play that in turn wrong-foots our backs.

Our forward line is similarly a low-percentage affair. Currently, we rely on perfect leads and pinpoint passes, and when we are moving the ball perfectly upfield, flooding mids running in. But half or more of the business of forward craft is the disciplined pack, which if it doesn't take the grab brings the ball to ground for the front-and-center rove or 50m lock in.

Coxy is a good example of this. He is clearly the perfect bloke for bringing the ball to ground for the small forwards, but has lost that art trying to play as a clean-grab or lead-up forward. But that's Ash's job. Similarly, McStay tends to play like Checkers, rather than sync with him. Hence, the ball is cleared too easily too often by the opposition, and we're giving away too many contests for nothing this way. We let that drop because the slick ball movement was so successful when the Mitchell-Daicos combo was dominating and the ball was dry. So, the remedy is to structure up a bit more traditionally.

Another possible consequence of the over-reliance on slick movement is that too many players are onlookers, taking them out of the contest and maybe the 'rhythm' of the game, if that makes sense. That can't be helping with intensity and one-on-one wins in addition to the natural self-preservation mindset that comes with sitting clear on top before finals.

There's a chance we can remedy this pretty easily, even though we're still a few guns short. Don't forget how many difficult games we've won over this period; there is a competitive beast in there alright. We just have to get back to the business of playing the percentages more often and bringing more players into the contest.

And don't worry about Nicky. Over this time he's been putting on muscle in order to become a gun mid, which is the thing about his development that impresses me most. He is actually great in the contest and tackle for his age, so I don't have the slightest worry about him becoming a classical gun mid. The only thing that worries me is him pushing too hard on the weights too soon, and feeling the need to carry the weight of the club too early. We all wanted to see him in the middle, but not become the linchpin of the team at his age.

So, here we are. Over to you, Fly and co.

[bally12]

What's going on is that in our last 2 games Carlton and Hawthorn have identified we have a few soft players and came at as with aggressive and dirty tactics and generally bullied us, and bashed us up. Well it worked.

Not all our players can be Darren Millane but when little sh#ts like Owies taunt and get in our players's faces, without being thrown over the fence, then we have a problem.

Add to that they targeted our 2nd year champion ball player and got away with it, then we really need to regroup as a team and make it clear we won't be intimidated.

[LaurieHolden]

Maybe not one for the chicken littles, but for those of you that are able to absorb a loss and haven't given up on the season, the coach, the players, read on ~

Perspective please: Why wounded Pies are still the team to beat
Rohan Connolly
Aug 7, 2023, 08:31 AM

One of the consequences of saturation coverage of a sport is that in order to be seen or heard, there's a propensity to exaggerate the positive and to catastrophise the negative.

That's what I started thinking about seconds after the siren heralded Hawthorn's upset 32-point win over Collingwood on Saturday, as I pondered the likely headlines and "hot takes" we'd be reading and hearing in the aftermath.

It certainly was a bad day for the Pies, losing not just the game, but Brownlow Medal favourite Nick Daicos for at least six weeks, and key defender Nathan Murphy for up to three.

But does it justify the sort of season-ending, "now can't win the premiership"-type hyperbole that was at the extreme end of the reactions post the result? Or even the "Magpies off the rails" slightly more subdued versions? Not in my book.

You're obviously going to hear a lot more of the "why they're in trouble" storylines over the next few days, if only because worst case scenarios make for more dramatic headlines and copy. But what about the case for Collingwood NOT panicking? Okay, I'll do it.

Some perspective here, please. With three games left to play, and the win-loss ledger 16-4, the Pies are still two games clear on top, with a top-two finish (meaning two MCG finals) all but assured provided they can win just one more of their remaining games (against Geelong, Brisbane and Essendon).

Now to the injuries. The underrated Murphy will be missed, sure, but Collingwood did manage to survive more than the first half of the season well enough without another defensive key in Jeremy Howe.

And Daicos? No one is pretending his loss isn't costly. Is it insurmountable? Of course not. For starters, the six-week prognosis, given the pre-finals bye, and the further week's rest earned by a qualifying final victor, means that Daicos may miss only Collingwood's first final, so it's not "game over" for him.

Without him, Collingwood is robbed of prolific ball-winning ability and smart ball use. But it's not like the Pies don't have other running players who win plenty of the footy, ranked No.7 before the weekend for disposals.

They've got plenty of other good users of the ball, too, Nick's brother Josh for one, old stagers Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom, and Jordan De Goey, Isaac Quaynor, Jack Crisp, Pat Lipinski, just to name a few more.

There's a tendency when a side on top all year has a downturn to not necessarily over-analyse, but effectively throw the baby out with the bathwater and make the inevitable declines in particular areas more consequential in isolation than they might when considered alongside the strengths which prevail.

For Collingwood right now, there's a lot of focus on its declining numbers and ranking over recent weeks in the areas of clearances and contested ball.

True, the Magpies were smashed 18-3 out of the centre square by Hawthorn on Saturday, those three centre bounce wins the second-lowest tally recorded by a team this season. A couple of points, however.

Hawthorn, from its 18 centre bounce wins, scored only three goals. And the lowest centre bounce win tally this season? That was GWS in Round 16 against Melbourne, a game the Giants actually ended up winning.

Collingwood has also declined sharply since Round 9 for contested ball differential, and it conceded 16 more inside 50 entries to Hawthorn on Saturday.

Again, though, a couple of points. The Pies are still comfortably in the top six ranked teams for the latter statistic. And perhaps contested ball and clearances aren't quite the all-important metrics they used to be.

Champion Data's "Premiership Standards" table tells us that only four of the last 10 premiership teams ranked in the top six for contested possession differential, and for clearance differential, both centre bounces and around the ground, just three teams ranked top six.

There's six categories in which every single premier of the past 10 has ranked top six - points against, points against from turnovers, opposition points from the forward half, defensive to forward 50 transition, inside 50 differential, and time in forward half differential

Before the Hawthorn game, Collingwood was still ranked first, first, second, fifth, fifth and ninth respectively in those categories. Perhaps those continued strengths are even more important to their flag chances than those currently on the nose.

None of which suggests, by the way, that those ailing departments aren't in need of addressing.

Nor that there's not some big Collingwood names -- like skipper Darcy Moore and Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell, for example -- who really need to lift a cog or two from their past couple of performances.

And up forward, the lack of an in-form key marking target is also being increasingly felt, with Mason Cox having been dropped and Brody Mihocek patently struggling at the moment.

Again, though, the most important statistic about Collingwood right now for me, is 29-6. That's the number of wins and losses since the Pies last dropped consecutive games, in rounds eight and nine last year. And three of the six losses were by less than a straight kick or less.

We all know Collingwood sells. And of course "Collingwood crisis" is a sexier sell than "Collingwood challenged".

But the Pies have been at or near the top of the ladder now for the best part of two seasons with good reason. And I'm not sure that's about to change dramatically now even off the back of a couple of underwhelming performances and some injuries to key players.

Source :
https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/38143158/afl-rohan-connolly-collingwood-magpies-wounded-pies-team-beat

[Pies2016]

Thanks L H.
It’s not often the press dump on the press but Connolly has done exactly what we all need to be prepared for over the coming weeks. Until the Pies start winning convincingly again, we’re all going to read a lot of negative press about our team because we sell newspapers. And a negative story always sells better than a feel good story. Separating another point of difference opinion from hard established facts gained over an extended period will be the average Collingwood supporters biggest challenge in the coming weeks.

The rubbish about clubs working us out amuses me the most. I promise you, clubs worked us out by round six, 2022 but knowing what to do and executing it are two very different conversations.
There is not one game plan in football that works without applying at least the same amount of pressure as the opposition. We have been out pressured, not out thought. Apply greater pressure and for longer and the rest will look after itself.

[LaurieHolden]

^ most won't read beyond a paragraph so it'll be mostly lost, hence I highlighted some pertinent points, or they were at least to me.

While I think we'll account for Geelong, with the peace of mind they'll be without their premiership pair Blicavs and Hawkins, I expect our resurgance will evolve in phases.
A win is one thing, but it's how we win and what aspects the players can and choose to address.

I'm of no concern that our pressure game has disappeared, but 'fly-ball' in whatever iteration it evolves into might not be witnessed until a Prelim. There's a lot of water under the bridge until then.

[lazzadesilva]