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CPtechno12
Joined: 01 Sep 2022
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Daniel Hoyne's (Champion Data) obsession with data and statistical analysis is pointless. With every team, you can watch them play and see what they do well or don't do well. Same for individual players.
Regarding Collingwood - one week it's not enough forward half pressure, the next week it's numbers between the 50 metre lines not as good compared to other teams.
Yet Collingwood keep winning (exception being a close loss to Melbourne).
Teams like North Melbourne and Gold Coast, and players like Ben Mackay and Ben King have bad tape showing a lack of effort.
The eye test - what we see when watching games - is sufficient for most keen followers of the sport.
Going back to Collingwood, it would be ideal to have a balance between scores from D50, F50 and clearance.
Locking the ball inside F50 has been a tactic of teams for a number of years now. You don't learn to beat it without practicing transition out of D50.
Is Collingwood the best at it?
I'm sure come finals, Collingwood will make it a focus to have repeat entries and keep the ball inside F50 as much as possible. It's mostly achieved by applying pressure. Collingwood has Adams, McCreery, Elliott, Hill, Miocek to apply that pressure. |
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slangman
Joined: 11 Aug 2003
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| derkd wrote: | So great win against Port...but we really are not the finished product yet....a good thing I guess.
But for anyone who follows some champion data stats Collingwood were beaten badly by Port between the archs, Port owned the ball in that part of the ground. On expected scores Port should have won the match by 5 goals.
The only reason we won was due to our insane level of accuracy on goal.
The former stat about the possession between the archs of 50 is a worry, because this supposedly is now several weeks in a row we have lost that stat.
Early in the year we were #1 in the comp in this stat. |
I like listening to Hoynie and he definitely brings up some interesting stats but he can sometimes put an opinion to a stat like our accuracy versus our opponents. Although one day it will no doubt change, when that is could range from this week to 2025. Its a stat that offers nothing other than a retrospective outlook that has no bearing to game style or system.
The stat between the arcs is an interesting one because our game style is much different to the other contenders even though we sit two games clear on top. Are we ahead of the curve or are the teams that are below us?
On The Couch highlighted that our scores beginning in our D50 far outweighed our scores that started in our F50. This is opposite to all of the premiers of the last decade.
There are some things in football that stats can’t measure or quantify like the skill level of players in certain clutch situation in games.
Of the six last quarter goals against Port, nobody acknowledges that our most skilled players by foot were the ones who were having the shots on goal. Luck or good system?
Just remember that Houston was the only Port player capable of kicking that match winning goal against the Bombers.
I personally like the stat of kicking clutch goals, clutch decision making, clutch effort, clutch teamwork which enables us to have the clutch WINS!!!
Go Pies!!
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Piesnchess
piesnchess
Joined: 09 Jun 2008
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| RudeBoy wrote: | | think positive wrote: | | burnsy17 wrote: | I can’t see Ginni replacing Hill.
Hill has something Ginni doesn’t…. Blistering pace.
Hill and Beau are vital to the way we play and the way we set up in the forward line. |
i agree, much as i love Ginnie he has some work to do to get back to best 22 |
+3 |
HE did very well in the VFL match, totally redeemed himself. I just think Bobby needs a rest, managed, IMHO. Ginni starred in that epic last match against the Baggers, last season, him and Jamie. 
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Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb. |
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Piesnchess
piesnchess
Joined: 09 Jun 2008
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I am usually very conservative in matches with the Bluescum but not now. I just think we are a class above them in many areas. Like, they beat eagles Norf an Port, Port rested 7 players, and it was at Marvel, no wonder Port lost, you cn rest maybe 4, but 7 is just ludicrous. Bluescum have some stars out , McKay, Silvagni, Walsh, Cripps will drag himself iinto the team unfit, you can bet on that. This match, they will be competitive for awhile, but we should pull away, an have a strong victory. Woods by 28- 37 points.
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Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb. |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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| RudeBoy wrote: | | think positive wrote: | | burnsy17 wrote: | I can’t see Ginni replacing Hill.
Hill has something Ginni doesn’t…. Blistering pace.
Hill and Beau are vital to the way we play and the way we set up in the forward line. |
i agree, much as i love Ginnie he has some work to do to get back to best 22 |
+3 |
I love Hilly and would hate to have to choose, but I think you're being too certain there. Ginni has had a bigger impact on games than Hill, while he has all the smarts to beat his man when he's on.
Remember, it doesn't matter how you beat your man - speed, strength, smarts, whatever - as long as you beat him. And Ginni has shown he's more than capable of winning big games off his own boot.
Don't underestimate the lad's upside, especially when you've seen it with your own eyes. All assuming he works his way back into form, of course. Last week's effort in the twos was a really good sign.
And that's nothing against Hilly, who is coming along nicely. It's just another great 'problem' to have.
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In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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pietillidie
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
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| derkd wrote: | | The only reason we won was due to our insane level of accuracy on goal. |
No doubt we were beaten except on the scoreboard. But pressure is not easily captured in stats, especially when you know your opponent can run the length of the ground in seconds and score four in a row before you catch your breath.
The opponent is also tiring themselves silly trying to beat us at the stoppage, spread to block us switching, and clog the middle to stifle our run.
When you combine the pressure with the exhaustion, your accuracy is going to suffer. Remember how bad our accuracy was at times when we played that really exhausting game under MM and then Buckley trying to limit better opponents? We used to console ourselves with the thought 'if only we'd kicked better', but knew full well it was a product of the game style we were playing.
As then, so now.
_________________
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm |
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Magpietothemax 
magpietothemax
Joined: 28 Apr 2013
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| pietillidie wrote: |
No doubt we were beaten except on the scoreboard. But pressure is not easily captured in stats, especially when you know your opponent can run the length of the ground in seconds and score four in a row before you catch your breath.
The opponent is also tiring themselves silly trying to beat us at the stoppage, spread to block us switching, and clog the middle to stifle our run.
When you combine the pressure with the exhaustion, your accuracy is going to suffer.
As then, so now. |
Exacty PTD. It is not accidental that so many opposition teams are inaccurate on goal against us. The physical exhaustion that they incur just from absorbing our l pressure and countering our aggressive ball movement, as well as the psychological pressure of knowing that every shot on goal is
critical, because Collingwood can overcome almost any deficit in the final quarter, creates a perfect storm of uncertainty and fragility in the opposition.
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Free Julian Assange!!
Ice in the veins |
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perthmagpie 
Joined: 27 Mar 2004
Location: Yarrawonga
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| Post subject: Surge footy | |
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In last Saturday’s match we seemed to vary our interchange rotations from the third quarter to the last quarter. I think we kept 7 interchanges up our sleeve for the last by keeping players on the bench for longer during the third quarter. Nick Daicos spent 12 mins sitting down. I would be curious to see if we had more sprints and repeats sprints in the last than the third quarter as some of our key midfielders were fresher. I believe this is a tactic we are using depending on the scoreboard situation. If we believe the game is going to be tight score wise we manage our bench rotations and sub for a surge in a quarter like the last (but not always the last). For instance in the Bulldogs game we needed the surge quarter to be the third before the scoreboard got away from us.
Foootball matches have momentum periods and holding periods. If we can stay within touch (4 goals or less) by the last break and we have conserved energy in the previous quarter then our last quarter surge will be the last one of the game with no time for the other team to get momentum back as they tire and run out of time. And we have mastered the art of getting in front and winding down the clock for two minutes (that 2 minute board must be worn out).
I have also noticed too that we can attempt surge footy in the first quarter against better opponents, to build a lead and keep one more surge quarter up our sleeve. This is why possibly our form wavers so much across the course of a game. I laugh when experts debate our luck, our accuracy compared to our opponents and pick apart our poor quarters. They are missing some of the strategy we have employed that’s definitely includes playing to the scoreboard.
As for Saturday night the wet does not suit our game style. It stops our transition game and handball chains. It’s much harder to move the ball. A narrow ground makes it worse with the opposition clogging the corridor and less room on the wings to find space. A dry MCG is a completely different story. Port took advantage of the wet and adapted better to the wet ball and their deliberately bringing in the ball low at times to their forwards negated our intercept marking. Although we did perform a masterclass of spoils.
I am comfortable we would have their measure at the MCG in better conditions. I also wonder why they treated that game like a final, essentially tossing in the selection towel the week before when both games were worth four points. Their win at all costs against us seemed to mean they revealed their tactics to try to beat us pre- finals. I think they got sucked in.
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Magpies love pies(Lol) |
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LaurieHolden 
Floreat Gymnorhina tyrannica
Joined: 22 Feb 2009
Location: Victoria Park
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While additional incentive shouldn't be required, Carlton could drop to 12th if they lose this game.
And let's not forget we've got their 2023 2nd round draft pick.
Smash 'em lads!
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"The Club's not Jock, Ted and Gerry" (& Eddie)
2023 AFL Premiers |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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Good point Laurie.  |
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jonmac1954
Joined: 07 Nov 2019
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I've never had any respect for the results of statistical analysis - not so much in the veracity of the actual facts - more so in the fidelity of the motivation.
The mere fact that statistical analysis is called for predisposes the inquisitor to the mindset that there is an anomaly. This creates a critical mindset as opposed to an analytical mindset.
Secondly there is the vexed matter of revealing the entity paying for the analysis.
Thirdly there are the terms of reference and the duration/penetration of the inquisitorial thrust.
In other words statistical analysis is only as pure as the motives of the wallet paying for it. |
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LaurieHolden
Floreat Gymnorhina tyrannica
Joined: 22 Feb 2009
Location: Victoria Park
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Suspect a few actuaries might disagree with you.
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"The Club's not Jock, Ted and Gerry" (& Eddie)
2023 AFL Premiers |
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jonmac1954
Joined: 07 Nov 2019
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| LaurieHolden wrote: | | Suspect a few actuaries might disagree with you. |
I don't suspect but I'm certain I don't GAF. |
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jonmac1954
Joined: 07 Nov 2019
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| Human nature is what it is and where there is a possibility of gain there are always plenty who will do anything to access it. |
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Charlie Oneeye 
charlie oneeye
Joined: 23 Apr 2004
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I love what Hill brings to the game, he lays more tackles than Ginnivan, and I perceive he is involved in a lot more pressure acts.
I think this is right up there as to why he is in the side instead of Ginnivan.
I also have a feeling there are disciplinary reasons at play. Ginnivan may have been required to take another step fitness wise, but has been wayward.
But I love Ginnivan as well. Speed is not everything, Steve Johnson comes to mind. Ginnivan is a good player, and is only 20.
I noticed in his recent VFL game, a lot of tackles were highlighted in the club posted vid. I think tells us something. |
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