NFL 2019 and Super Bowl LIV

[Pies4shaw]

The great J J Watt (3 times NFL defensive player of the year and Sports Illustrated’s 2017 Sportsperson of the Year) will be back for the Texans from a long layoff with a torn pectoral. The Bills chances against Houston just dropped 40% or so.

[Pies4shaw]

Super Bowl chances according to ESPN analytics are Ravens 36%, Chiefs 22%, 49ers 19%, Saints 7%, Packers 6%, Pats 5%, Vikings 2%, Eagles 1%, Texans 1%. Titans, Seahawks and Bills are all rated less than a 1% chance.

Those stats imply that there is about a two-third chance that the inner of the Super Bowl will come from the AFC.

[Pies4shaw]

Ron Rivera has been appointed coach at Washington.

[Pies4shaw]

Bills at Texans is underway. The Texans won the toss and deferred. The Bills took it down for a TD, with their first-year QB Allen starring - a 42 yard run and then, hilariously, a 16-yard TD reception on a trick play. For the Texans, JJ Watt has been in on a defensive snap or two but he’s obviously not going to carry the defence today.

[Pies4shaw]

Texans have replied with a good drive of their own, although they ultimately punted. For mine, though, the Bills’ defence looks more threatening and have broken up more plays than the Texans could do.

[Pies4shaw]

This time, Watt comes in and forces Allen to offload a short pass on 3rd and 20, so the Bills punt. The Texans start at about their own 33. But they sack Watson for the 2nd time and force the Texans to punt to the Bills’ 9-yard line. Still 7-0 to the Bills.

[Pies4shaw]

Bills are (just) stopped on their third drive and have to settle for a field goal. They lead 10-0. Watson then gets sacked for a fourth time and the Texans are struggling to get to halfway on their next drive.

[Pies4shaw]

And they’re stopped at their own 54 and punt again - this time the Bills will start at their own 4 after a fine 57-yard punt (following a delay of game penalty, presumably a deliberate one to give the punter more room to work with - Belichick frequently declines those penalties and forces the opposition to punt from the closer position and I’m not sure why others don’t force their opponents to do the same).

[Pies4shaw]

We’ve reached the two-minute warning coming up to halftime. The Bills are still driving and there is a real chance the Texans will be shut out in the first half on their home field.

And they are - the Bills get a field goal to go to a 13-0 lead and leave the Texans with only 4 seconds and they get used up with the kickoff and return. That’s halftime and the Texans are in a deep trench.

[Pies4shaw]

The Bills sack Watson for the fifth time and the Texans will punt from their own 19. This time, Roberts returns the punt to about his own 37 yard line. Watching the Texans with the first possession of the second half, you can’t help but wonder whether it wasn’t stupid for them to defer receiving and hand the ball to the Bills at the start of the first quarter - they gave the Bills a chance and they took it.

Meanwhile, a very unprofessional effort by the Texans almost cost them a TD at the start of the half - the kick returner didn’t take a knee in the end zone and, instead, tossed the ball towards the Ref. The Bills claimed the ball and it looked for a while like they had a TD. The Refs overturned their original decision, presumably to avoid completely ruining the game as a contest.

Anyway, the Bills made it to the attacking 40 but had to punt for a touchback.

[Pies4shaw]

The Texans look shot. Watson finally got one into Hopkins’ hands and he fumbled, with the Bills recovering in the Texans’ half.

[Pies4shaw]

Frank Gore - the third-highest career rusher in history - takes it 15 yards to the Texans’ 14.

JJ Watt makes a stand with a big sack and stops the Bills’ drive, so the Bills have to settle for a field goal. They lead 16-0.

[Pies4shaw]

Hopkins catches at the Bills’ 2 and then Watson himself drives the ball for a 20 yard TD run. Or maybe he’s a few inches short. No, after review the TD call stands. And then he runs it in for a two-point conversion and the Texans are alive. That JJ Watt sack of Allen created a 12-point turnaround. 16-8, now, late in the third quarter.

[Pies4shaw]

And now Allen suffers a sack fumble and the Texans have the ball in their scoring half.

[Pies4shaw]

But a 6th sack of Watson hold the Texans to a field goal. 16-11, now.