NFL 2019 and Super Bowl LIV

[Pies4shaw]

Yes, Kelce* catches his second and Mahomes’ third TD pass of the second quarter (actually 3 TDS in 3 minutes and 24 seconds, which is just silly) and, in a remarkable turnaround, the Chiefs are just a field goal behind.
Suddenly, the raw salmon is in the Texans’ bowl.

Edit: how does Apple not know that Travis Kelce’s name should not be auto-corrected?

[Pies4shaw]

The Chiefs have stopped the Texans and forced a punt on 4th and 12. Mahomes will need to go 90 yards in 2 minutes and 47 seconds to take the lead before halftime.

[Pies4shaw]

Well, they’ve gone 57 of those yards by the 2 minute warning, as Mahomes runs it to the Texans’’ 33. The Texans look like breaking records of Atlanta Falcons proportions, here - and not in a good way.

[Pies4shaw]

And after another big Kelce catch, Mahomes runsit inside the 5.

Kelce catches another one near the TD line and it looks like Mahomes will have the Chiefs in the lead after the play review.

... Yes! Paddy matches Doug Williams’ Washington Super Bowl XXII record as the only QB to throw 4 TDS in one quarter of a playoff game. Three TD catches to Kelce in the quarter, as well. It’s 28:24, in the blink of an eye.

But Hopkins catches a big throw from Watson, just outside field goal range. 19 seconds to halftime.

Watson avoids the sack. 11 seconds to go.

Watson runs it just inside field goal range with 3 seconds to go. But it’s No Good. The Chiefs lead by 4 at halftime.

[Pies4shaw]

The Chiefs start the second half with another TD drive. They miss the extra point but lead by 10, with 34 u answered points. The Texans must stop the SUSHI on the next drive.

Meanwhile, in big news, Travis Kelce has pulled a hammy. Assuming the Chiefs win, that’s huge for next week.

[Pies4shaw]

Or not. Kelce is back creating havoc. And the Chiefs lead 41:24. That’s 6 unanswered TD drives in a row.

[Pies4shaw]

Watson pulls one back. 41 to 31. 24 seconds to the end of the third quarter.

[Pies4shaw]

Final: Chiefs 51, Texans 31, so the AFC Championship game will be Titans at Chiefs.

Meanwhile, the important game is underway. Green Bay has dirt possession and Adams has just caught a TD pass. Early days but Green. At lead 6 (soon to be 7):0.

[K]

[Pies4shaw]

Green Bay lead Seattle 28:23, with 9 and a half minutes to go. Seattle have 3 TDs on their last 3 possessions. Packers are trying their best to give this up. They’re about to go 3 and out again.

But wait, Allison catches a good one on third and ten. Now 2nd and 8.

Now 1st and 10 at the Seattle 41.

My goodness - they’ve nicknamed Jones “Yellow Weasel”. It sounds pretty stupid when ARod calls it.

3rd and 9 and 2 unblocked linebackers sack Rodgers. Pathetic work by the offensive blockers. They’re going to punt it back to Seattle with 5 minutes to go.

And just a 25 yard punt. What a crock.

[Pies4shaw]

Wilson’s going to walk this down the park, again. The pass rush has been nonexistent for Green Bay in the second half. A slight reprieve as an open receiver drops a simple catch.

A good tackle and it’s 3rd and 5. Then Preston Smith sacks Wilson and they punt 64 yards into the end zone - but it will come back to the 20.

2 minutes, 32 seconds to go.

[Pies4shaw]

Packers trying to hang on and run out time. But the Pack has to waste a timeout. 2nd and 8. 2.26 to go.

2nd and 8 and Rodgers throws it away.

[Pies4shaw]

But Adams takes yet another big catch at midfield for a first down. He has 160 receiving yards.

2nd and 8 after a Jones 2 yard run.

He runs again but is stopped at the line of scrimmage. 3rd and 8. Two minute warning. Seattle has one time out. A first down would end this but the Pack has gone all defensive.

Seattle blitzes but Rodgers gets it out to Jimmy Graham who just about reaches the first down line. If he does, that’s all over. Booth review.

[Pies4shaw]

The ruling on the field stands! The Packers will win, now.

Just, with the third greatest QB of all time hanging on by the skin of his teeth. Two brilliant throws on 3rd and long pulled this one out of the fire. The Pack lines up in the V for three snaps. And that’s it.

Packers 28, Seahawks 23. The Pack has to go to California and try not to suck too badly this time next week. Some would call that the NFC Championship game. I’m just going to call it torture....

[Pies4shaw]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/

The predictions have been updated. They now say:

- to make the Super Bowl: 69% Kansas, 64% San Francisco, 31% Titans, 36% Green Bay

- to win the Super Bowl: 43% Kansas, 26% San Francisco, 17% Titans, 14% Green Bay

They're just numbers.

Here's the reports on today's big games:

https://www.espn.com.au/nfl/story/_/id/28471786/patrick-mahomes-inspired-chiefs-shatter-records-rally

https://www.espn.com.au/nfl/story/_/id/28473132/first-year-coach-matt-lafleur-leads-packers-back-nfc-title-game

I have to say, it was nice to see the new Coach go for the winning first down and risk turning the ball over near midfield, instead of just punting the ball back to Seattle. That it came off was great but I don't think there was too much risk, really - I think Wilson would have marched down the field for a match-winning TD, whether the Pack had punted to pin him back deep in his defensive 50 or let him start from midfield by turning it over on downs.

Backing the star Pack QB like that is hard to criticise. Happily, Rodgers is great enough to get it done.

Next week's Championship games are:

AFC: Titans at Chiefs - 7.05 am, Monday, 20 January (AEDST)

NFC: Packers at 49ers - 10.40 am, Monday, 20 January(AEDST)

It'd be great to see a Mahomes v Rodgers Super Bowl - but it's obviously going to be Garoppolo's 49ers that make it from the NFC. Adams is a great receiver but the Pack doesn't have enough alternative deep threats to trouble the great San Francisco defense. Adams will be triple-covered and the Pack will get about 25 yards of passing offense.