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bokka 
Joined: 11 Apr 1999
Location: NY, Ex Land of Brave and Free
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| Raw Hammer wrote: | Brisbane have not locked up a top 2 spot. They are only 5% ahead of WC and 8% ahead of Richmond. WC could do a big number on Hawthorn (10-goal win), and/or Richmond could do a similar number on Brisbane (the net effect of a loss to Richmond means if they’re percentage drops 4% then Richmond’s goes up 4%, and the 8% deficit is covered). Brisbane have everything to play for.
What screwed Collingwood up was Geelong choking at the Gabba. |
I think WC woudl have to beat DAwks by at least 10 goals to even have a remote chance of overtaking Brions %. EVen then brions would prob have to lose to Tigers by about 6 goals.
Brions will still be motivated but Richmond would be playing for top 4 which is a lot bigger. |
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mattdally
Joined: 21 Feb 2003
Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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If Tigers win Lions will still likely finish 2nd.
Can't see Eagles smashing hawthorn.
That means we would play loser of Cats v Tigers if we win our first final.
Potentially meeting the Lions in a prelim at the Gabba.
That is a good route I think. |
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Raw Hammer
Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter
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| bokka wrote: | | Skids wrote: | | Raw Hammer wrote: | They can’t finish higher than 7th or lower than 8th, and can’t manipulate who they play cos it’s the first game of the final round. So they’ll likely play with the shackles off which is not ideal, as ALL the pressure will be on us.
Do we play Moore? Do we risk him, with another two week break an option, with top 4 highly unlikely? Probably need to play him, otherwise we enter week one with Stephenson, Moore (and hopefully JDG) with 2-4 months off, which is why the double chance is so important. Other than a home prelim, it gives us a week to gel the injured back into the line up. An elimination final is a crapshoot with so many underdone players.
Ah well, we could always take the AFL to court for the Freo game. |
Lions are a very big chance to beat tigers.
Win and we're in I reckon. |
Brions don't have a lot to play for comp to Tigers I"m afraid. Maybe boils down to if they want to kick Richmond out of the top 4, which could be a big move since Tigers are the form team at present. |
Brisbane have a top 2 spot to play for and home final (and home prelim).
They could easily fall to 3rd or 4th if they suffer a heavy defeat vs Richmond.
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Est. 2002 |
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Raw Hammer
Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter
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| bokka wrote: | | Raw Hammer wrote: | Brisbane have not locked up a top 2 spot. They are only 5% ahead of WC and 8% ahead of Richmond. WC could do a big number on Hawthorn (10-goal win), and/or Richmond could do a similar number on Brisbane (the net effect of a loss to Richmond means if they’re percentage drops 4% then Richmond’s goes up 4%, and the 8% deficit is covered). Brisbane have everything to play for.
What screwed Collingwood up was Geelong choking at the Gabba. |
I think WC woudl have to beat DAwks by at least 10 goals to even have a remote chance of overtaking Brions %. EVen then brions would prob have to lose to Tigers by about 6 goals.
Brions will still be motivated but Richmond would be playing for top 4 which is a lot bigger. |
If Geelong (vs Carlton), West Coast (vs Hawthorn) and Richmond (vs Brisbane) win, then all 4 teams will be on 64 points.
Geelong is then a lock for top as their percentage can’t be overtaken.
However, Brisbane (121%), West Coast (116%), and Richmond (113%), are all chances of a top 2 spot. Because I’m a big nerd when it comes to this mindless exercise, the following is true:
If WC defeats Haw by 50-60 points, and Rich defeats Brisbane by 20-30 points, WC will leap frog Brisbane into second spot. If Richmond simply defeats Brisbane by around 10-11 goals, Richmond will overtake Brisbane, and overtaken WC if the Eagles only win by a couple of goals.
However, if Collingwood lose on a Friday night, then nothing really matters.
Ideally, we win, Hawthorn pull of a miracle win, and we claim top 4 and don’t worry about Sunday.
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Est. 2002 |
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Cam 
Nick's BB Member #166
Joined: 10 May 2002
Location: Springvale
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What happens if Geelong loses?
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Get back on top. |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Everyone laughs like it’s 2010, Cam. |
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Raw Hammer
Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter
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Nah, ain’t happening.
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Est. 2002 |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| E wrote: | | RudeBoy wrote: | Moore will surely play this week. If not, then it's curtains for him for 2019.
There's no need to rush JDG back, so rest him for another 2 weeks and then we bring him and Stevo back for the finals. |
Rudey, you are a scribe i respect and admire. But this makes no sense at all. All three come back when they are ready and not before. |
Technically you are right E, except that Moore's history of chronic hamstring problems - which ultimately ruined our flag chances last year - would suggest to me that the club is unlikely risk him breaking down in a final unless he had at least played one game before hand, to see he had full confidence in his body. Given the time he has already out, for a 'slight hamstring strain, if he is unable to play this week, then I'd be surprised if the club took a punt on him in the finals. Then again, wtfwik? |
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Clifton Hill-Billy
Joined: 29 Sep 2011
Location: 3068----> 3076
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Moore for Magden, I agree with the above RB. If we start not playing Moore based upon what might happen then we shouldn't play him at all. I reckon the dopers will take it easy knowing that they'll probably play us first round of the finals, so wouldn't be a bad game to test Moore's hamstrings, unless disaster strikes, but better it happens in h&a than in the first quarter of an elimination final
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"Hey Ma get off the dang roof!" |
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mgh3536
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Melbourne
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| Cam wrote: | | What happens if Geelong loses? |
its a big chance Cam!! |
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Piethagoras' Theorem 
the hypotenuse, is always a cakewalk
Joined: 29 May 2006
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If we beat essendone by 100 pts, geelong would then only have to lose by 92 for us to overtake them 
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Formally frankiboy and FrankieGoesToCollingwood. |
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Piesnchess
piesnchess
Joined: 09 Jun 2008
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| What'sinaname wrote: | It'll be a preview of the elimination final.
We have little to play for now, as Richmond and WCE are very likely to win their games leaving us at 5th. |
Don't write off Brisvegas, they r playing brilliant footy, and I reckon the cocky Punt rd pricks have been lucky lately, they are due to drop one, you never know, anything can happen. All we can do is beat Essendoper, and see how the dice rolls. 
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Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb. |
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Pacino
Joined: 04 Sep 2016
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As I see it, there is really not much difference for us compared to last year. We had to win 4 games if we were to win the flag last year as will be the case this year. Furthermore, all teams face the prospect of being eliminated at some point during the finals. It is just a question of when. In the end all teams need to keep winning if they wish to make the grand final.
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Carpe Diem |
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Piesnchess
piesnchess
Joined: 09 Jun 2008
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| Pacino wrote: | | As I see it, there is really not much difference for us compared to last year. We had to win 4 games if we were to win the flag last year as will be the case this year. Furthermore, all teams face the prospect of being eliminated at some point during the finals. It is just a question of when. In the end all teams need to keep winning if they wish to make the grand final. |
YES !! as ive always said, GFs are not only so HARD to WIN-tell us about it - they are also so HARD to even REACH 
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Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb. |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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I heard a great comment the other day about the upcoming finals series.
All the top teams look good when they have the footy. That’s what makes people talk about them.
But the premiership will be won by the team who plays the best footy when they don’t have the ball. Very true ... and a just little deep too |
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