What's the cause of our decline/slump?

[Piesnchess]

I think we have also basically run of of fit soldiers, mass injuries are not an excuse, they are a REASON. Look at the eagles and cats, very few injuries, none long term, and they are flying. NO team can lose guys like Dunn, Langdon, wells, Beams, Reid, all for the season, and still go well, throw in taylor adams, and the bloody crucifixion of Stephenson, and it all adds up, to below par performances. It is what it is, we just don't have the personnel, this season, which makes last yrs loss in the GF all the more galling, and heartbreaking for all of us.

[DT]

Too many players are having indifferent seasons compared to last year. If you check out Champion Data then this will confirm what we see. In particular, Sidebottom has dropped off massively from last year as has JT.

The loss of Langdon and Howe (along with no preseason) has impacted us a lot despite the good news on Roughead and Moore.

Adams was our best player in the GF and his loss is profound as he frees up Pendlebury and Treloar.

Since Stevo went out the forward line is not the same - the consequences of his stupidity will linger long over him and the club.

The combination of these factors has meant that the air has gone out of the tyres and the team looks flat.

The concern I have is where are the young players coming in to change the dynamic? Sier has not had a good year for obvious reasons and whilst C Brown has shown some great form it is patchy.

In my view it is clear that the Beams recruitment was misguided and I wonder if he can come back at all. Instead of a slow mid we need a quick mid and a tall forward.

A change in mindset available players and form can see us turn it around but my best guess is that we are cooked for this year - finals but not past the second week.

[What'sinaname]

^ agree re: injuries. Also the drop off in ability of Varcoe and Cox. Cox couldn't catch the flu right now and Varcoe is the "almost man".

Add to that, the instability in the line up....too many changes every week.

In short...we be fooked.

[Ads7]

Potentially more distraction: De Goey caught on his phone while driving.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/collingwood-magpies/magpies-star-jordan-de-goey-caught-using-phone-while-driving/news-story/d93fa661991db947608a0ac6a42a4b78?fbclid=IwAR39tSOY7Bk_opk2P4mszjBisx11BsX3AdmdF_16o1kz-RHcBNuc0R92e9U

Thoughts on how the club will handle this? Is another suspension on the cards?

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Mods, please delete this post. Started a separate thread.

[think positive]

[think positive]

[swoop42]

Gerard Healy summed it up best the other week when he simply asked of Bucks why?

Why did he feel the need to make alterations to our game plan over summer and why did he do it with the talent available on our list?

If he did it with the desire to reduce our turnover numbers then by all reports it hasn't worked.

Some people have suggested that we have tried to copy the Eagles and what we are attempting is not all to different to the system employed by other top 4 contenders in Geelong and G.W.S.

Perhaps there is some truth to this and after 4 straight losses to the eventual Premier perhaps some merit in exploring another system of play was warranted.

It could also be argued though that by looking to mimic an opponent you might well only end up becoming a poor imitation and in doing so you only limit the differences and strengths that lead you to your successes in the first place.

Further to that I would suggest that after suffering a narrow grand final defeat in a season wracked by injury not making any system changes would have been justified by the coaching panel and simply looking to improve on your own brand instead of impersonating another should have been the first option taken.

With the additions of Beams, Roughead and hopeful return to fitness of Moore and Elliott it wasn't unreasonable to assume at the start of the season that not much else besides some luck with injuries was required to see us be right in the hunt for the flag.

While I suspect Healy was referring to our overall list quality in the second question he posed of Buckley there is one major difference between us and the other 3 teams named above and why IMO this more measured style of ball movement seemingly doesn't suit our list as well.

Unlike us they all possess A grade key forward options.

I think this is important because not only are they proven players over long periods and consistent goal scorers they provide the luxury of knowing that if the opposition is doing a good job of limiting how you want to move the ball you still a reliable avenue to goal by just bombing it long to the goal face such is their quality.

It's a get out of gaol free card we don't have to play.

While Mihocek proved a revelation last season and has been solid this year he isn't your No.1 key forward.

Cox could be if he can replicate his performance in last years Preliminary final often but displays even approaching that kind of level have been few and far between for him.

They aren't rare for the likes of Kennedy, Darling, Cameron and Hawkins though and it's a massive advantage they have over us.

Right now I don't recognise this side in comparison to the one I admired last season or even our very best of earlier this year.

Worryingly I do see some of the same weaknesses that plagued us in the years prior to last.

Most notably the disconnect between our defence and forward line because we lack any cohesion with our method of transition.

At times we've started to look more vulnerable out the back to our old foe the slingshot also.

Honestly at times last week it was like our players had totally forgotten our system and were making it up as they go. We were back to the bad old days when it was hard to decipher how we exactly wanted to play and what our brand of football was.

Obviously personnel missing or opposition tactics can be playing a part in our current malaise but it's the confidence issue that is more intriguing to me.

I see it as a bit of a chicken or the egg argument in that are we playing like we are because our confidence levels are low or have our confidence levels become low because of how we are being asked to play.

I can't help but feel it's more of the latter and that the players are either being caught in between a desire to play on instinct and adhere to team instructions and it's leading to a jumbled mess of two competing mindsets or those players who went so close to living the premiership dream last year are losing faith in or not enjoying the method they've been asked to play in 2019 more and more as the season has progressed.

While our current predicament certainly doesn't fall squarely on the shoulders of Buckley as there are circumstances at play outside his control he as coach does have one important element that he absolutely can influence and that's the structures and instructions he wants our players to adhere to.

Buckley deserved his coach of the year title last season but he'll deserve it even more now if he can swallow a little pride, take the advice of every caretaker coach in history by freeing the players up and discarding any alterations made to our 2018 game plan.

Will it be the panacea for all our problems overnight?

No but it's the critical starting point that everything else can be built back up around during the remainder of the home and away season.

[K]

[Pies2016]

Good measured post, Swoop.

I tend to think along similar lines. My take on it is that our players responded well to the 2018 game style but are being somewhat stifled by the more process driven game plan on offer in 2019.
We started a lot of successful fast break attacks from our own back half last year and I believe a bit of that was on the back of having a good defensive structure that included the extra in defence ( particularly before the bounce )
I get bemused when people we aren’t “ choosing “ to move the ball quickly. Of course we want to but there’s an opposition out there that spent a week picking our strengths apart and their aim is to slow us down.
I keep going back to game trend stats and those stats say there are less scores than ever resulting from possession chains that start in the back half of the ground. ( keep in mind that stat was on the rise up until 2017 )
Nearly all clubs have decided that the reward without the extra defender in position, is no longer worth the risk of giving up the ball in their own back half. ( interesting to note that Ess and GWS are considered as the exceptions to this trend because they still score well from their back half chains )

So we have a situation where nearly all clubs are choosing to move the ball much more deliberately out of their own back half and then attempting to put the foot down from just back of centre. You simply can’t give the ball up in your own back half because the pressure that’s being applied has never been greater and it’s generally pounced on by the oppositions forwards.

I think this is where our problem starts. By choosing to move it “ deliberately “ out of our back half in the first place for the above reasons, the opposition now have more time to set up further down the ground. In 2018, we generally didn’t give them that time to do so.
We don’t have much in the way of pack marking forwards, so we rely on leading into space to get most of our shots on goal. The moment you move the ball slowly, you are giving the opposition more time to close that space.
Obviously teams are good at it because overall scoring is lower than last year.
Not every club makes those tempo adjustments at the same time. The runners can’t get out as often and injuries to important players all contribute to the lack of on field cohesion.
The other option is to go back to taking more risk from deep within your own back half but nearly all clubs ( not just collingwood ) don’t like the risk attached to that plan. It’s a bit of a catch 22 and it all comes back to risk / reward.
I think we will be alright, it’s still a talented list compared to most. It’s really more to do with when we get it right, not if.

PS - although it’s just my opinion, its pretty much based on extracts from C D AFL prospectus. In a nut shell, all the statistical evidence shows there is a new level of conservatism in game plans and it’s being dictated by risk reduction.

However, one conspiracy theory is that coaching safe against possible blowouts is better for a coaches tenure but that’s for another thread.

[Haff]

Good post swoop. This is why I have already jumped off Buckley. 10 weeks of good footy does not a good coach make. I don’t think you can call it luck but our injuries forced his hand to change our game plan last season. Why the f*** would you completely abandon that and go back to a plan that wasn’t working with a full list?

If we end the season poorly I would love the club to make a bold bold decision and move him on. It won’t happen I know but I’m sick and tired of mediocre performances and if he were to be sacked he can only be seen as a failure across his tenure.

[Mr Miyagi]

Good, jump off like a Richmond or Melbourne fair weather supporter then. Would you rather we lose by 10 goals plus? I’d rather Bucks be a realist and pragmatic. And it’s not even all on Bucks and the game plan — opposition teams figured out that if they press us to their forward 50 and the boundary line, and run our forwards out of our forward zone, we’re easy beats because we’re not working hard enough to run both ways. THAT is on the players to pull their fingers out.

[Mr Miyagi]

We played the way we have since the bye against Carlton. Do you honestly think Bucks instructed the players to flood and play defensive to avoid Carlton flogging us by 100 points?

Carlton figured out how to beat us. Other opposition teams have figured out how to beat the game plan that was winning us games for a good chunk of this season. Add a few injuries, player form, suspensions...

[PyreneesPie]

^ I understand what swoop42 and Pies 2016 are getting at above regarding movement out of the back line and I agree, it's a valid point.
However, not only are we trying to be more careful about bringing the ball out from defence, we've also started bombing it to a congested wing in recent weeks. This is such a defensive play that increases the difficulty for the forwards to present effectively. It's borne out of a lack of confidence and fear of risk and consequent failure.
Last Sunday, the Doggies played just like we did in 2018 and lo and behold, they knocked off the ladder leaders. They showed a manic attack on the ball and the opposition ball carrier, a willingness to work their butts off and to take risks through the middle of the ground. If you have players that can initiate run from half-back, like they have with Johanssen, it certainly vital.
So, I too, like the inclusion of IQ and Noble. Perhaps, this signals a change of direction from the coaching panel, from playing safe football to taking more risks.
I certainly hope so because all I want to see right now is our boys enjoying playing their brand of football again, regardless of the score board result..

[derkd]

[Cam]

Last year, first game after the bye, June 24, 2018, we lost Treloar to double hamstrings. Second game after the bye, on June 30, we lost Lynden Dunn for the season. We scraped in our next game against Essendon by 16 points after having a 17 point lead at quarter time, but giving it up and being 1 point down at three quarter time. Essendon had won their previous three games, including beating the Eagles in Perth two weeks prior. Lost promising Appleby with a hamstring.

Bucks subsequently shaved the beard off, we lost to the Eagles by 6 goals at the MCG on July 15 [Eagles lost Natanui for the season, Darcy Moore returned] sending the Eagles to second on the ladder and us down to third. We then belted 9th placed North by 66 points on July 21, but Darcy Moore withdrew pre-game.

July 28, Moore returned, but we were put down by Richmond, losing Scharenberg for the season, and Howe until the finals. The next week, August 4th, we were pipped by Sydney in the Swan's Alex Johnson's first game since 2012, and overall second last game of his career. We lost Darcy Moore for the year, and tumbled to 6th on the ladder. At this point, few of us were thinking we would make the finals at all, let alone win one or two.

We were 5th in round 5, our first entry in 2018, dropped out and re-entered in 8th after round 10, rose to 2nd by round 15. Before bottoming out at 6th after the Sydney game in round 20. We won our last three, squeaking by Freo in Perth in round 23 by 9 to finish 3rd.

So this time last year, we hadn't even got to our lowest point yet! Stay positive.