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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| spirit-of-alby wrote: | | David wrote: | | 90 nice wrote: | | hawthorn will MISS finals mark my words |
You’re probably right, but you’re wrong that they can’t make it. |
The odds would be crazy...they have to win both their last two games (including WCE in Perth) and Adelaide; Port; Bulldogs and Essendon would all have to lose both of theirs...so yes they can still make it...but if you are playing the odds, they are not making it |
Correct, 16/1... I'd have them at 25/1+.
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| spirit-of-alby wrote: | | David wrote: | | 90 nice wrote: | | hawthorn will MISS finals mark my words |
You’re probably right, but you’re wrong that they can’t make it. |
The odds would be crazy...they have to win both their last two games (including WCE in Perth) and Adelaide; Port; Bulldogs and Essendon would all have to lose both of theirs...so yes they can still make it...but if you are playing the odds, they are not making it |
No, that’s simply not true. They need to win both games (including getting a decent percentage boost against the Suns, which you’d think they will) and hope that Essendon lose both games (quite possible) and that each of Adelaide and the Bulldogs lose one of their next two. Keep in mind there are two spaces in the top 8 up for grabs, not one. At least one of those is already guaranteed to happen (the Bulldogs play Adelaide in the final round!), so really they only need one more of the following results to get in:
Collingwood b. Adelaide
GWS b. Bulldogs
(There’s also an alternate pathway where Port Adelaide lose both games, but let’s presume that doesn’t happen so as not to overcomplicate this.)
So, to recap, they only need to win two games and rely on three other results going their way – say, Fremantle beating Essendon, us beating Essendon and (in the scenario where the Bulldogs beat Adelaide) GWS beating the Bulldogs. The odds of four of those are $1.03, $1.62, $1.57 and $1.71. It’s only the Hawks’ own game against the Eagles where the odds aren’t in their favour ($4, there). But win that, and I reckon they have a better than 50% chance of playing finals.
(For what it’s worth, the odds of Hawthorn playing finals are $13)
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Presti35 
Dick Lee for Legend Status
Joined: 05 Oct 2001
Location: London, England
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| Presti35 wrote: | We can be in the top 4 at the end of this round if;
1. Collingwood defeats Adelaide. (I give this a 50% chance of happening) ✔
and
2. West Coast defeats Richmond. (45%) |
| Presti35 wrote: | The result of Brisbane Vs Geelong will have a big impact on the top 4. It's better for us if the Cats win. We'd want the Cats to finish 1st if we finish 4th. And the Lions have the Richmond in the last round to make things interesting. The Cats have Carlton in Geelong.
It's probably better, but not huge if the Bulldogs beat GWS. However, I dont want to finish 5th and play the Bulldogs right now.
Will be going for Freo to beat Essendon and North to beat Port, but both matches dont impact our top 4 chances. Whats better, Essendon not making it, or being smashed in week one of the finals? |
Lions beat the Cats, which isnt great. But providing WCE beat Rich, it wont really matter. But I would prefer not to travel in week 1. Not that we cant win interstate... I just want to be at Pendles 300th.
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Last edited by Presti35 on Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:13 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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With Adelaide losing to us and Port currently choking big time against North, at this rate Hawthorn will be 8th by the end of the round, let alone home and away season.
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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Here's what the site projects now (before Haw-GC, but they must know how that'll turn out):
1. Geelong
2. Brisbane
3. WC
4. Richmond
5. Collingwood
6. GWS
7. Essendon
8. WB
9. Port
10. Hawthorn
11. Adelaide
12. NM
13. Fremantle
14. St Kilda
15. Sydney
16. Carlton
17. Melbourne
18. GC |
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KenH 
Joined: 24 Jan 2010
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| K wrote: | Here's what the site projects now (before Haw-GC, but they must know how that'll turn out):
1. Geelong
2. Brisbane
3. WC
4. Richmond
5. Collingwood
6. GWS
7. Essendon
8. WB
9. Port
10. Hawthorn
11. Adelaide
12. NM
13. Fremantle
14. St Kilda
15. Sydney
16. Carlton
17. Melbourne
18. GC |
I think that you will find that Essendon and Bulldogs will be swapped around as Bulldogs have the higher percentage!
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Cheers big ears |
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ANNODAM
Rebel Heart Tour - The Forum, Los Angeles 27/10/2015.
Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Location: Eltham, VIC.
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I think we can go as high as 3rd provided BNE & HAW both win...
Of course, we need to do our job on Friday night first though.
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N.Y METS, N.Y GIANTS, PENRITH PANTHERS & HOBART HURRICANES FAN.
WE ALL LOOK GOOD AT TRAINING, IT'S THE MATCHES THAT COUNT! |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| KenH wrote: | ...
I think that you will find that Essendon and Bulldogs will be swapped around as Bulldogs have the higher percentage! |
They project Ess. 12.2 wins, Dogs 11.7 wins, so maybe that counts for more in their ordering. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Here’s something I put together last night. Helps give an impression of who our first finals opponent will be (at the moment, we could potentially face nine of the ten other teams in contention, with West Coast being the only mathematical impossibility).
Brisbane
High: 1st (if win)
Low: 4th (if lose by 70 points + Eagles win by 18)
Likely: 2nd
Geelong
High: 1st (if win + Brisbane lose)
Low: 4th (if lose + West Coast and Richmond win)
Likely: 1st
West Coast
High: 1st (if win and Brisbane and Geelong lose, the former by a lot but not so much that Richmond overtake them)
Low: 5th (if lose + Richmond and Collingwood win)
Likely: 3rd
Richmond
High: 1st (if win by 70 + Geelong lose and West Coast either lose or win by 50 points less)
Low: 5th (if lose and Collingwood win)
Likely: 4th
Collingwood
High: 3rd (if win and Richmond + West Coast lose)
Low: 5th (if win + Richmond and West Coast win)
Likely: 5th
GWS
High: 6th (if win)
Low: 8th (if lose + Essendon win and Bulldogs and Suns win by a combined 88 points)
Likely: 6th
Essendon
High: 6th (if win and Giants lose)
Low: 8th (if lose and Bulldogs win)
Likely: 8th
Western Bulldogs
High: 6th (if they and Suns win by a combined 88 points and Essendon lose)
Low: 11th (if they lose by 26 + Hawthorn win and Port win by at least 26)
Likely: 7th
Hawthorn
High: 8th (if they win + Bulldogs lose)
Low: 12th
Likely: 10th
Adelaide
High: 8th (if they win by 26 + Hawthorn lose + Port win by less)
Low: 13th
Likely: 12th
Port Adelaide
High: 8th (if Hawthorn lose, while Adelaide win by at least 26 and Port win by more, or Adelaide win by less than 26 and Port catch the Bulldogs on percentage, which may require Port winning by as much as 48 points)
Low: 13th
Likely: 9th
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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piedys 
Heeeeeeere's Dyso!!!
Joined: 04 Sep 2003
Location: Resident Forum Psychopath since 2003
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Thanks Dyso! There's a bit of a howler in there about the Giants not being at risk of falling lower than sixth, despite it being absolutely possible for them to drop to 7th or even 8th if they lose to Gold Coast. But one can forgive the writer for not considering that possibility. 
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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5150 
Joined: 31 Aug 2005
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I have Brisbane beating Richmond this week.
Beat Lions at the GABBA
Home preliminary final win against WCE
Beat Geelong in GF
Simples! |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Couple of updates, with four of the round's nine games completed:
Geelong can only finish 1st or 2nd now, depending on whether Brisbane wins. West Coast and Richmond can only finish as high as 2nd now and as low as 4th if they win, which means that we can't play either in Week 1 – our only possible first round opponents now are Geelong or Brisbane if we make top 4.
The bottom half of the 8 is still more or less as it was at the beginning of the round, except that Essendon can no longer finish higher than 7th and GWS can no longer finish lower than 7th. We could still play anyone of Essendon, the Bulldogs, Adelaide or Port Adelaide if we finish 5th.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Johnno75
Joined: 07 Oct 2010
Location: Wantirna
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Geelong v Collingwood QF
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| That's the ideal match-up. |
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