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Ladder predictor thread

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:35 pm
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RudeBoy wrote:
BazBoy wrote:
I’m only looking at Tiggers to pinch their spot cos that’s possible

Climbing past 4 for us a bridge too far


We wouldn't want to finish 3rd anyway, as that would probably have us playing the Eagles or Lions on their home turf.


Why not? West Coast I get, but we smashed Brisbane last time we played them at the Gabba. Must admit I don't get this phobia of playing interstate that so many Collingwood supporters seem to have...

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RudeBoy 



Joined: 28 Nov 2005


PostPosted: Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:41 pm
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Sure, we could win our first final in Brisbane or Perth, but I'd much rather face the Pussies on 'our home ground'. I reckon we'd smash them at the G.
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tbaker 



Joined: 02 Jul 2018
Location: Q19 Southern Stand MCG

PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:07 am
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RudeBoy wrote:
Nooooo. It's always better to finish in the top 4 than out of it. The double chance is very valuable, especially for us, with players returning from injury.

Yep - and we still get our home final: in week 2 for a qualifying final loss, in week 3 for a win...

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Presti35 Virgo

Dick Lee for Legend Status


Joined: 05 Oct 2001
Location: London, England

PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:22 pm
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We can be in the top 4 at the end of this round if;
1. Collingwood defeats Adelaide. (I give this a 50% chance of happening)
and
2. West Coast defeats Richmond. (45%)

The result of Brisbane Vs Geelong will have a big impact on the top 4. It's better for us if the Cats win. We'd want the Cats to finish 1st if we finish 4th. And the Lions have the Richmond (Thanks David) in the last round to make things interesting. The Cats have Carlton in Geelong.

It's probably better, but not huge if the Bulldogs beat GWS. However, I dont want to finish 5th and play the Bulldogs right now.

Will be going for Freo to beat Essendon and North to beat Port, but both matches dont impact our top 4 chances. Whats better, Essendon not making it, or being smashed in week one of the finals?

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Last edited by Presti35 on Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:31 pm; edited 1 time in total
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:56 pm
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Lions are playing Richmond in the final round, Presti35, not West Coast!
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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:40 pm
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David wrote:
That last mark to Castagna was clearly after the siren. Mad Every little will help.

Richmond 112.8%
Collingwood 113.9%

A Crows win could be quite helpful, particularly if they win well. West Coast are currently sitting on 117.3%. Currently in front of Adelaide 22–10


you guys get so caught up in percentage. Percentage doesn't matter.

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:51 pm
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May I be so bold as to suggest that your opinion on percentage doesn't matter. Wink
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23 YIPPEE!!! 

YIPPEE 23!!!


Joined: 24 Jul 2019


PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:51 pm
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Hawthorn can NOT make finals I did that ladder prediction thing and no matter if they win last 2 matches by say 85 points and other games to favour them they finish 10th at absolute best so there
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:17 pm
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Um, not sure what results you were putting in, but I literally just tipped all the favourites with the exception of Hawthorn beating West Coast in the final round by 10 points, and this is what I got:

afllp2.jpg


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Raw Hammer 



Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter

PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:57 pm
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In this scenario:

Coll def Port (MCG)
[ WC def Geel ]
[ Rich def Bris ]

Coll def Geel (MCG)

Coll def Rich (MCG)

Coll def WC in the Grand Final (MCG)

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:59 pm
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I should clarify though that this ladder is not necessarily the most likely one – I was replying to Eureka's query about Hawthorn! Much more likely that West Coast finish third ahead of Richmond and that Adelaide or the Bulldogs finish 8th, meaning that we'd be more likely not have to play Richmond until the grand final (which frankly, I'd be pretty happy about!).

Personally, I think there are several more results that are more likely of going the other way than Hawthorn beating the Eagles and making it.

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23 YIPPEE!!! 

YIPPEE 23!!!


Joined: 24 Jul 2019


PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:15 pm
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hawthorn will MISS finals mark my words
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Presti35 Virgo

Dick Lee for Legend Status


Joined: 05 Oct 2001
Location: London, England

PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:30 pm
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David wrote:
Lions are playing Richmond in the final round, Presti35, not West Coast!


Whoops...

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:47 pm
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90 nice wrote:
hawthorn will MISS finals mark my words


You’re probably right, but you’re wrong that they can’t make it.

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spirit-of-alby 



Joined: 02 Jul 2019


PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:06 pm
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David wrote:
90 nice wrote:
hawthorn will MISS finals mark my words


You’re probably right, but you’re wrong that they can’t make it.


The odds would be crazy...they have to win both their last two games (including WCE in Perth) and Adelaide; Port; Bulldogs and Essendon would all have to lose both of theirs...so yes they can still make it...but if you are playing the odds, they are not making it

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