Ladder predictor thread

[David]

[Presti35]

If we finish 5th and play Adelaide (or Port Adelaide) at the 'G, that wont be so bad. If we won, we'd play the loser of 1 V 4, which could be Geelong.

I think top 4 is out of reach now with the current tup 4's run home. Hard to see them losing enough games and % for us to get back in.

Right now, I'd take a home final vs Crows/Power.

God, I hope we get our mojo back!

[RudeBoy]

With our latest injury additions of JDG and IQ, we will be lucky to win another game. Best we can hope for is to fall into the 8. From there we can't possibly expect to last more than one week at the most.

[What'sinaname]

We'll finish 7th and be bounced out week 1.

The upside, we'll throw a couple of high round draft picks to the Dogs to pick up Dale Morris. He'll be a star if he can get his body right.

[shawthing]

Can we forfeit the rest of the season (meaningless now anyway) so we can get our players right again for 2020?

[princem007]

finish 7th I think

[eddiesmith]

Win 1 game and we’ll finish 8th and probably travel to Sydney to play GWS. Win 2 and we’ll jump to 7th for a blockbuster clash with the bombers.

Lose all 4 and we don’t play finals.

[K]

Here's what it projects now -- all their changes are outside the 8:

1. Geelong
2. Brisbane
3. WC
4. Richmond
5. GWS
6. Collingwood
7. Essendon
8. Adelaide
9. Port
10. WB
11. Hawthorn
12. NM
13. Fremantle
14. St Kilda
15. Sydney
16. Carlton
17. Melbourne
18. GC

[David]

I know it's all doom and gloom on here, but I'm still holding out hope for this season. Obviously a top 4 finish is pretty crucial if we're to get anywhere in the finals series, but I think that's perfectly manageable with our draw – and hopefully, if we can find a way to go 4–0 from here, we can take some momentum and confidence into the finals. Even then, we'll still need some results to fall our way, however! Basically, we need two of the following things to happen:

1. West Coast to lose twice (plus fall below us on percentage, which amounts to a cumulative margin of around 100 points)
2. Brisbane to lose twice (plus fall below us on percentage, which amounts to a cumulative margin of around 100 points)
3. Richmond to lose once (plus fall below us on percentage, which amounts to a cumulative margin of around 13 points)
4. GWS to lose once

That's tricky, given that most of those teams are in pretty good form at the moment. It's helped somewhat, however, by the fact that some of them play each other: Richmond take on West Coast and Brisbane in successive weeks. If the Tigers lose either one of those, that's one box ticked off (presuming we can beat them on percentage), and one of the other two teams will be halfway to falling below us; if they win both, we only need one further loss from either West Coast or Brisbane to put one of those teams within our grasp. The percentage gap (a little under 8%) seems like a big gap, but remember that this is a scenario where we keep winning and one of those sides suffers two losses – that makes it a lot more gettable (particularly if we manage big wins over Gold Coast and Melbourne).

Of those two, the most vulnerable is probably Brisbane, whose home games against the Bulldogs in round 20 and particularly Geelong in round 22 are both serious challenges. If they can lose both of those, then the final game against Richmond will be an automatic win for us no matter who comes out on top; if they lose one, the same may be true so long as we can find a way to catch them on percentage (i.e. we'll be hoping for a big Richmond win). Long story short, if we go 4–0, I expect one of Richmond or Brisbane to drop below us.

The Eagles have a few potentially tricky games to come too – a resurgent Carlton might give them a bit more trouble at the MCG next week than anyone would have guessed a few weeks ago, and neither Adelaide nor Hawthorn will necessarily be an easy proposition. But they do start favourites in each of those, and I have a feeling that if we're placing our hopes on the Eagles stumbling we're going to be disappointed. Best case scenario, I think, is that they beat Richmond in round 22, leaving the possibility that both Richmond and Brisbane slip below us.

That leaves GWS as a crucial piece in the puzzle. Like West Coast, I think they start favourites in their last few matches, but there are some danger games there nonetheless: Sydney at the SCG, Hawthorn at home and Bulldogs at home (before a virtual dead rubber against Gold Coast). You'd give them about a 60% chance of winning each of those, so hopefully they slip up somewhere.

Most realistic best-case scenario:

Geelong beats Brisbane, West Coast beats Richmond and whoever wins out of Richmond and Brisbane does so by a solid margin

Next most realistic best-case scenario:

Either West Coast or Brisbane beat Richmond, GWS lose one of their next three.

Teams to barrack for in the next four weeks:

Any other upsets that occur out of these would be very handy.

Round 20:
Sydney to beat GWS
Melbourne to beat Richmond (lol)
Carlton to beat West Coast (you never know?)
Western Bulldogs to beat Brisbane

Round 21:
Hawthorn to beat GWS
Gold Coast to beat Brisbane (double lol)
Carlton to beat Richmond
Adelaide to beat West Coast

Round 22:
Geelong to beat Brisbane
Western Bulldogs to beat GWS
West Coast to beat Richmond (there's a small chance that we might be benefited more by Richmond winning this, but even if the Eagles have dropped a game in the previous two rounds, I think the percentage differential means we still get more out of them winning this one)

Round 23:
Hawthorn to beat West Coast
Gold Coast to beat GWS (lol again)
Richmond vs Brisbane ??? (totally dependent on results up until this stage. Probably slightly more likely that we want a Brisbane win, given the percentage differential, but a big Richmond win might be just as helpful.)

Of course, we could fall apart against Gold Coast next week and render all this moot. Let's not do that.

[Presti35]

That's a sensational post.

I'm still holding onto hope too.

[Pies2016]

Thanks David. That’s a good review.
We had also better hope the Crows don’t sack Pyke before the end of the season. We know what happens then 😉

[K]

^ We need not only for Pyke to stay coach but for him to give his players the voodoo stare, like this:

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-05-28/pykes-silent-treatment-was-no-surprise

[RudeBoy]

I'm not confident we'll beat Cold Toast.

[spirit-of-alby]

[Mr Miyagi]

After Mark Robinson smugly putting us down today, all I want from here on is to flog Essendon and knock them out of the finals.