Ladder predictor thread

[tbaker]

^ yep. My ladder is based on ladder position of opponent, and a factor (+ or -) for whether playing as home or away team where home ground advantage counts for something (i.e. where not playing at a neutral venue).

We play 4 top 8 sides, and 2 of those are away. There is no way we have the 3rd easiest draw. Just look at Geelong's draw in comparison - they only play 1 top 8 side - there's no way we have an easier draw than them (which we have, according to CD).

[BazBoy]

Coming up is a desperate six games for the possible eight occupants and last night has added an element of desperation to one of our upcoming opponents

I am hoping that the one point win was the spur needed to more desperate than Crows and others in current eight

Are we prepared for it ???

[David]

My estimate now is that we need 15 wins to have a good chance of getting to top 4 (in which case we’re likely to be locked in a tight percentage battle with Richmond and Brisbane). Win 14 and we likely miss out, though if one of those is against Richmond then that helps. Here’s my current ladder prediction (with us losing to Richmond and Essendon and winning the other three):

1. Geelong 68
2. West Coast 64
3. Richmond 64
4. Brisbane 60
5. GWS 56
6. Collingwood 56
7. Essendon 52
8. Port 48

9. Adelaide 44
10. Western Bulldogs 44
11. Hawthorn 40
12. North 36
13. Fremantle 36
14. St. Kilda 36
15. Sydney 32
16. Carlton 24
17. Melbourne 20
18. Gold Coast 12

PS Carlton’s still a mathematical chance of playing finals.

[Pies4shaw]

Why would Collingwood lose th Essendon? They’re pathetic.

[David]

Been winning a lot of games they weren't expected to lately, and almost knocked us off on Anzac Day. We might be narrow favourites, but on current form you'd expect us to lose one of the Adelaide/Essendon games.

[K]

It's changed -- more at the top than the bottom:

1. Geelong
2. Brisbane
3. WC
4. Richmond
5. GWS
6. Collingwood
7. Essendon
8. Adelaide
9. Hawthorn
10. Port
11. NM
12. WB
13. Fremantle
14. St Kilda
15. Sydney
16. Melbourne
17. Carlton
18. GC

[Kill for Collingwood]

Does winning last 4 get us there?
If so, that means found form and regained some outs.
And with a chance. 4-8 will as usual make up the numbers (ie $$$$$) for AFL.

[Adz]

We will beat the GC but that’s it.

Finish between 8th and 11th.

[David]

I think there's a good chance of finishing top 4 if we win the next four games, but we can't afford to drop one. Probably need to win two of those to be guaranteed of a top 8 spot, but if we lose to Gold Coast or Melbourne then we probably don't really deserve to make it at this point.

Here's my ladder predictor if we win all our remaining games (which is quite possible; I think Adelaide and Essendon are both 50/50):

1. Geelong 18-4 134.5%
2. West Coast 16-6 114.4%
3. Richmond 16-6 113.5%
4. GWS 15-7 127.3%
5. Collingwood 15-7 114.3%
6. Brisbane 14-8 113.5%
7. Essendon 12-10 104.6%
8. Adelaide 11-11 106.9%

9. Western Bulldogs 11-11 95.9%

So we need to win all our games and hope that GWS, West Coast or Richmond drop one (which is totally possible) and that we stay in touch with percentage. Port Adelaide and Hawthorn winning today would certainly help.

[K]

You're predicting percentage too, David? Wow.

[What'sinaname]

i have us finishing 6th or 7th and playing Essendon in week 1 regardless of our wins and losses.

Cant see us getting top 4 now

[Pies4shaw]

So, who do we play in week 2, if we have Essendon in week 1? Geelong at the 'G?

[Deja Vu]

Will finish 5th to 8th and play Essendon

[What'sinaname]

siting 6th now

[Raw Hammer]