Ladder predictor thread

[piedys]

[Pies4shaw]

So, after all that angst and many tears, we finished 4th and have to play Geelong at the MCG in white shorts. We may rue some of those close losses. Imagine how much different it might have been if we'd finished 1st and got the easy first up game - Richmond at the MCG in black shorts.

Much ado about???

[David]

One last thing on this – like many of you, I expect, I was part of a workplace tipping competition. I did all right this year (finished 7th out of about 60), but what I thought would be kind of interesting would be to go through all of my tips for the year and see what the ladder would have looked like if they'd all been right. This is what I came up with:

1. Geelong 20-2
2. GWS 19-3
3. West Coast 17-5
4. Richmond 16-6
5. Collingwood 16-6
6. Brisbane 14-8
7. Adelaide 14-8
8. Western Bulldogs 12-10

9. Hawthorn 11-11
10. Fremantle 11-11
11. Port Adelaide 9-13
12. St. Kilda 9-13
13. North Melbourne 8-14
14. Sydney 7-15
15. Essendon 6-16
16. Carlton 5-17
17. Melbourne 3-19
18. Gold Coast 1-21

This is a very reactive way of predicting results, of course – you're always trying to make guesses based on what you've seen in previous rounds – but it's interesting to see some of the discrepancies from the actual final ladder, such as the fact I ended up overrating GWS and Adelaide and hugely underestimating Essendon throughout the season. Others weren't too far off (most were within at most two wins or losses from where they ended up), and I was surprised to find that my self-perception of being a "pessimistic" Collingwood tipper (I often tip against us if I have any doubt) isn't necessarily all that accurate – I actually gave us one more net win than we ended up with.