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dalyc 
Joined: 02 Mar 2005
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| What'sinaname wrote: | well, if we can't beat WCE, GWS and Richmond in the H&A, what the point making the finals and losing to them there.
If we lose the next three, then I'd rather us lose every game and miss the 8 altogether. |
Of course you would.
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Four legged animals good, two legged animals better |
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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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| What'sinaname wrote: | well, if we can't beat WCE, GWS and Richmond in the H&A, what the point making the finals and losing to them there.
If we lose the next three, then I'd rather us lose every game and miss the 8 altogether. |
We couldn't beat Richmond in the H&A last year then flogged them in a Prelim. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| K wrote: | A bit odd to be looking at this mid-round but David must have had his reasons.
The source above now says:
1. Geelong
2. GWS
3. WC
4. Collingwood
5. Brisbane
6. Adelaide
7. Richmond
8. Port
9. Essendon
10. Fremantle
11. NM
12. WB
13. Sydney
14. Hawthorn
15. St Kilda
16. Melbourne
17. Carlton
18. GC |
Now the round's completed, it says:
1. Geelong
2. WC
3. GWS
4. Collingwood
5. Brisbane
6. Richmond
7. Adelaide
8. Port
9. Essendon
10. NM
11. WB
12. Fremantle
13. Sydney
14. Hawthorn
15. St Kilda
16. Melbourne
17. Carlton
18. GC |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Yeah, GWS losing certainly helps our cause.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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It's changed heaps:
1. Geelong
2. Brisbane 
3. WC
4. Collingwood
5. Richmond
6. GWS
7. Adelaide
8. Essendon
9. Port
10. WB
11. NM
12. Hawthorn
13. Fremantle
14. Sydney
15. St Kilda
16. Melbourne
17. Carlton
18. GC |
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tbaker
Joined: 02 Jul 2018
Location: Q19 Southern Stand MCG
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I have my own ladder predictor, which predicts the following:
1 Geelong
2 West Coast Eagles
3 Brisbane
4 Collingwood
5 Richmond
6 Greater Western Sydney
7 Adelaide
8 Essendon
9 Port Adelaide
10 Western Bulldogs
11 Fremantle
12 Hawthorn
13 North Melbourne
14 St Kilda
15 Sydney
16 Melbourne
17 Carlton
18 Gold Coast
Perhaps more interesting, is the draw difficulty ladder, for remaining games (1st is hardest draw; 18th easiest):
1 Hawthorn
2 North Melbourne
3 Essendon
4 Collingwood
5 Gold Coast
6 Western Bulldogs
7 Melbourne
8 Sydney
9 Carlton
10 Richmond
11 Adelaide
12 Brisbane
13 Fremantle
14 Geelong
15 Port Adelaide
16 Greater Western Sydney
17 West Coast Eagles
18 St Kilda
_________________
I find your lack of faith disturbing |
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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The wiggles draw looks that bit harder after losing Natanui and Cripps I reckon.
Their 3 home games v ; North, Crows & Hawks are by no means certainties. The 3 road trips v ; Melbourne (Alice Springs), Tigers (MCG) and Carlton (Marvel) I wouldn't be penciling in either.
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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While anything can happen, you'd pencil them in as clear favourites in 5 of those 6 games. Richmond's by far the biggest challenger there.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Presti35 
Dick Lee for Legend Status
Joined: 05 Oct 2001
Location: London, England
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I'm sure at the start of the year, most people had the Lions bottom 4 and the Demons top 4.
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A Goal Saved Is 2 Goals Earned! |
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Presti35
Dick Lee for Legend Status
Joined: 05 Oct 2001
Location: London, England
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I'll be disappointed if Essendon make the top 8, which they should from here. Even more so if they win a final.
Will also be disappointed if Richmond finish top 4 and give themselves a chance at the flag.
If we dont have to travel during the finals, that'd be great. Wonder if the Cats will still want their final played in Geelong if they draw us?
_________________
A Goal Saved Is 2 Goals Earned! |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| David wrote: | | While anything can happen, you'd pencil them in as clear favourites in 5 of those 6 games. Richmond's by far the biggest challenger there. |
Correct, but, they were the hottest of favourites to beat us.
Favourites win around 75% of games.
I think they'll drop 2 or 3 of those.
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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Rd10.1998_11.1#36
rd10.1998_11.1#36
Joined: 18 Jul 2018
Location: Sevilla, Spain
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| Presti35 wrote: |
Wonder if the Cats will still want their final played in Geelong if they draw us? |
My dream would be that the Cats finish 3rd, Lions 2nd and they have to play their first final at the Gabba - and they wouldn’t be able to say boo about it or they’d be the biggest hypocrites ever 
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https://forever.collingwoodfc.com.au/sav-sinks-the-dockers/ |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Presti35 wrote: | | I'm sure at the start of the year, most people had the Lions bottom 4... |
No, they were very popular picks for the betting "handicap premiership".
| Skids wrote: | ...
Favourites win around 75% of games.
... |
In AFL it's about 70%. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| tbaker wrote: | ...
Perhaps more interesting, is the draw difficulty ladder, for remaining games (1st is hardest draw; 18th easiest):
1 Hawthorn
2 North Melbourne
3 Essendon
4 Collingwood [ ]
5 Gold Coast
6 Western Bulldogs
7 Melbourne
8 Sydney
9 Carlton
10 Richmond
11 Adelaide
12 Brisbane
13 Fremantle
14 Geelong
15 Port Adelaide
16 Greater Western Sydney
17 West Coast Eagles
18 St Kilda |
Here's CD's for comparison (18=Easiest, 1=Hardest):
1. NM
2. Hawthorn
3. GC
4. WB
5. Port
6. Sydney
7. Freo
8. Richmond
9. Melbourne
10. Carlton
11. Brisbane
12. Geelong
13. Adelaide
14. Essendon
15. WC
16. Collingwood
17. GWS
18. StK
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/run-to-the-finals-how-your-team-s-draw-is-shaping-up-20190717-p5285a.html
Wow, they don't agree with you much. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Yeah, WTF? Sure, there are the two "easy" games against Melbourne and the Suns, but otherwise four games against finals contenders (two of which are legitimate top four chances), including two genuinely tough interstate trips. I suspect the first ladder is closer to the pulse.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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