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War with Iran?

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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: preparing the Pilosocereus suppository

PostPosted: Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:08 pm
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FWIW

Quote:
But when Mr Trump asked his question on Thursday about how many Iranians could die in the strikes, the answer gave him pause.

He was told 150 Iranian lives were at stake.

"I thought about it for a second," Mr Trump told NBC, "and I said: 'You know what? They shot down an unmanned drone, plane, whatever you want to call it."

"And here we are sitting with 150 dead people that would have taken place probably within a half an hour after I said go ahead.' And I didn't like it … I didn't think it was proportionate."


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-22/what-happened-in-the-crucial-ten-minutes-before-trump-cancelled/11237932

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:30 pm
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^Coming from the mouth of a serial liar and manipulator like Trump, sadly, it's worth zero.

This is how he works: keep everyone mired in misinformation and doubt so in the end the most beneficial scenario can be claimed.

Trump's role is to run interference for crazed Republicans in exchange for unfettered self gory; who knows what the actual power brokers are up to.

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:50 pm
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I don't think one has to have any sympathy for Trump to take the, say, New York Times report on this incident at face value.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/21/us/politics/trump-iran-strike.html

I think he's a lot less smart and in control than you give him credit for, PTID.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:51 pm
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David wrote:
I don't think one has to have any sympathy for Trump to take the, say, New York Times report on this incident at face value.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/21/us/politics/trump-iran-strike.html

I think he's a lot less smart and in control than you give him credit for, PTID.

What else can they do? The entire order of logic and sanity rests on being able to repeat what the US President says on the assumption it is truthful, especially in the arena of war. If those around him repeat it enough it quickly morphs into fact simply for the sake of fluent communication. However, dig into the NYT and other outlets and they question everything that has transpired, even if they euphemistically phrase the problem as Trump's 'style' casting a shadow over events.

This is a general philosophical problem that hems us all in: you either have to assume the world and mainstream social structures are relatively reliable, or you have to take a more radical view and move to the outside. The NYT and ABC are hardly going to do the latter, so they're forced to take the conversation at face value, at least initially.

The difference in this case, though, is that we are literally dealing with a known pathological liar who works alongside others with a track record of lying about these matters. It would be extraordinarily naive to believe anything at all about the topic at this stage, including anything coming from Tehran.

The possibilities in the theatre of the absurd that Trump has created are endless. Anything about this whole business over the last month could be true, false, half true, unclear, fabricated or misleading. And yes, deceit is not just the realm of Trump; we can all recall that the Bush Administration were pathological liars, while the war and political machines can never be trusted.

The matter of Trump's intelligence is far more complex than you make out. The bloke is a genius manipulator and media man; grandiose narcissists often are. It takes considerable talent and know-how to do what he does, including declaring bankruptcy that many times and still finding funds, and then conning half a country into voting for you. At the same time, he is grossly ignorant, self-absorbed and unqualified.

As I say, Trump is a brilliant used car salesman and TV man running media interference for Republicans in exchange for glory. The relationship is symbiotic; I've never once thought he was solely in control of anything, hence the bit about not knowing what the actual power brokers think.

To quote the only memorable line from The Big Bang Theory: he is brilliant at what he does, it's just that what he does isn't worth doing.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:56 am
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Further evidence of Trump's charlatan genius: you can't be the hero if you're the fool who created the crisis to begin with. And yet, here people are, thanking him for things there is no evidence he did to not worsen a mess he and his cronies unilaterally created.

This is not a terrible article exploring some of the possibilities going forward: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/iran-drone-deal/592339/

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 23, 2019 3:31 pm
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Thanks PTID. That article really does lay out how unnecessarily $%$ed the situation already is.

On Bolton and his warmongering cronies, I find little to disagree on with Tucker Carlson here, particularly from 5:30:

https://youtu.be/-c0jMsspE7Y

Quote:
He’s fine with the outcome in Iraq, too; that wasn’t a disaster either. According to John Bolton, it was a raging success: we killed hundreds of thousands of people, lost thousands of our own troops, spent over a trillion dollars, all to eliminate a WMD threat that, despite John Bolton’s assurances, never existed in the first place. [....]

Last night has been in the works for years. John Bolton is a kind of bureaucratic tapeworm: try as you might, you can’t expel him; he seems to live forever in the bowels of the federal agencies, periodically re-emerging to cause pain and suffering – but, critically, never suffering himself. His life really is Washington in a nutshell: blunder into obvious catastrophes again and again, refuse to admit blame and then demand more of the same.

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thesoretoothsayer 



Joined: 26 Apr 2017


PostPosted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:57 pm
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Yeah, I also thought Carlson nailed it.
The only thing keeping the U.S. from war is that Trump's white, working-class base aren't interested in dying for oil, big business or Israel.
He needs his base for 2020. After that, all bets are off.
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:27 pm
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Tucker is 100% spot on.
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Skids Cancer



Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:13 pm
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Tehran sets up terror cells in Africa as Western sanctions bite

Iran is setting up a network of terror cells in Africa to attack US and other Western targets in retaliation for Washington’s decision to impose sanctions against Tehran, according to Western security officials.

The new terror network has been established on the orders of Qassem Suleimani, the head of the Quds Force, the elite section of Iran’s Republican Guard Corps that has responsibility for overseas operations.

The aim of the new terror cell is to target US and other Western military bases on the continent, as well as embassies and officials.

The Iranian cells are said to be active in a number of African countries including Sudan, Chad, Ghana, Niger, Gambia and the Central African Republic.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/24/tehran-sets-terror-cells-africa-western-sanctions-bite/

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:19 pm
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Quote:
“Iran is setting up a new terrorist infrastructure in Africa with the aim of attacking Western targets,” a senior Western security source told The Daily Telegraph. “It is all part of Tehran’s attempts to expand its terrorist operations across the globe.”


And we should believe these "senior Western security sources" why? Ever heard the expression "once bitten, twice shy"?

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 06 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:01 pm
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If the West is serious about tackling terrorism, it wouldn't turn a blind eye to the activities of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 6:59 pm
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David wrote:
Quote:
“Iran is setting up a new terrorist infrastructure in Africa with the aim of attacking Western targets,” a senior Western security source told The Daily Telegraph. “It is all part of Tehran’s attempts to expand its terrorist operations across the globe.”


And we should believe these "senior Western security sources" why? Ever heard the expression "once bitten, twice shy"?

Next, there will be a thread on all the bad things Iran has done, refreshed daily with Facebook news to keep it at the top of the board.

Iraq War groundhog day has come so soon after the original debacle.

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Last edited by pietillidie on Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:42 pm
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Trump could've started the war already but didn't. There are elements in his cabinet who are itching for it but he's kept them in check so far. Wouldn't be surprised if there was a 'Hezbollah' attack on US interests in the next couple of months to try and goad him.
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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:18 pm
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Wokko wrote:
Trump could've started the war already but didn't. There are elements in his cabinet who are itching for it but he's kept them in check so far. Wouldn't be surprised if there was a 'Hezbollah' attack on US interests in the next couple of months to try and goad him.

So he would have you believe. He's certainly narcissistic enough to be goaded into something at other people's expense, so anything could unfold.

Thankfully, he probably would rather avoid war because he's out of his depth in an institutional military context. You can't be draft-dodging Captain Bone Spurs and talk confused drivel in the arena of war.

Yes, at least he's 'better than Bush', with the latter's failed wars and incompetent response to various disasters. But Bush voters are overwhelmingly Trump voters, and Bush's neocons and swindlers are now Trump's neocons and swindlers. The risk of horror outcomes is every bit as high.

Trump's role, much like a clown at a rodeo, is to distract from the fact that we're dealing with the same extreme and corrupt GOP wreckers.

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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:56 pm
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Why don't you mention Obama's failed wars? Stop being a partisan hack.
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