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Form ladder 2019

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:30 pm
Post subject: Form ladder 2019Reply with quote

I dunno, see what you think:

1. Geelong
2. Brisbane
3. West Coast
4. GWS
5. Collingwood
6. Port Adelaide
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Hawthorn

9. Fremantle
10. Gold Coast
11. St. Kilda
12. Adelaide
13. Richmond
14. Sydney
15. Carlton
16. Essendon
17. North Melbourne
18. Melbourne

Expect Brisbane to slip down a little over the coming weeks and Adelaide and Richmond to improve. But going on the results we've seen so far, this seems about right?

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Skids Cancer

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:45 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh not this again ....
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Rd10.1998_11.1#36 

rd10.1998_11.1#36


Joined: 18 Jul 2018
Location: Sevilla, Spain

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:40 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

More like this:


1
Geelong Cats
3 3 0 0 159.7 12

2
Brisbane Lions
3 3 0 0 134.5 12

3
Fremantle
3 2 1 0 145.2 8

4
GWS Giants
3 2 1 0 131.4 8

5
Western Bulldogs
3 2 1 0 113.8 8

6
West Coast Eagles
3 2 1 0 113.0 8

7
Hawthorn
3 2 1 0 112.5 8

8
Port Adelaide
3 2 1 0 110.4 8

9
Gold Coast Suns
3 2 1 0 103.3 8

10
St Kilda
3 2 1 0 103.2 8

11
Collingwood
3 1 2 0 106.4 4

12
Adelaide Crows
3 1 2 0 87.9 4

13
Sydney Swans
4 1 3 0 86.6 4

14
Richmond
3 1 2 0 79.9 4

15
Essendon
3 1 2 0 78.3 4

16
Melbourne
4 1 3 0 75.8 4

17
Carlton
3 0 3 0 75.5 0

18
North Melbourne
3 0 3 0 64.8 0

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OffSeasonSpecialist Libra

OffSeasonSpecialist


Joined: 10 Nov 2017


PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:53 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Is there an algorithm to calculate the form ladder? Or is this an individuals opinion?

Could we be the mathematical premiers for 2018 based on the snapshot of our form at the time?

Edit: I have updated my signature accordingly.

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:59 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

The latter, OSS, though I don't see why you couldn't come up with a crude algorithm in theory. What's wrong with Rd10.1998's sarcastic response (which someone always inevitably posts) is that the actual ladder doesn't really give you a strong indication as to how teams are travelling, particularly not at this time of year – it can't take into account which opponents teams have been up against, and so on.

In response to your second query, I know you jest, but – given the draw's inherent imbalance – an end of year "form ladder" might well provide a better guide to the chances of teams in the finals than the ladder proper. But I do find that they usually start to align somewhat by the end of the year.

Anyway, I know this thread always attracts naysayers, but I'll do my best to keep it updated week to week, and anybody else who's interested in the exercise is of course welcome to post their own.

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OffSeasonSpecialist Libra

OffSeasonSpecialist


Joined: 10 Nov 2017


PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:22 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Anyway, I know this thread always attracts naysayers


Certainly not a naysayer here; I was genuinely wondering if there was a formula that was being applied.

Quote:
In response to your second query, I know you jest


This was an attempt to comfort myself when i was reminded of 2018. Crying or Very sad

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RudeBoy 



Joined: 28 Nov 2005


PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:22 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

In such an uneven competition, it's difficult to produce a 'form' ladder, and almost impossible after only 3 rounds.

However, as a general rule, I've always considered a team's percentage as the best indicator of their overall performance.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:55 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

OffSeasonSpecialist wrote:
...
Quote:
In response to your second query, I know you jest

This was an attempt to comfort myself when i was reminded of 2018. Crying or Very sad

More people attempt to comfort themselves in the opposite way.
e.g. "We were the underdogs." (False.)
"We lost 3 games against that team. Now it's 4." (True.)
"It was a bonus just to make the GF." (Was it? Sad )
"Losing GFs is heroic." ( No it isn't, at least not in itself. Sad )
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:40 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

RudeBoy wrote:
In such an uneven competition, it's difficult to produce a 'form' ladder, and almost impossible after only 3 rounds.

However, as a general rule, I've always considered a team's percentage as the best indicator of their overall performance.


That does help adjust for, say, close results (for instance, I would see the 1-point result of the St Kilda–Gold Coast game as evidence that the two teams are about on par, whereas obviously there's a much more substantial gulf between 4 points and 0 points on the real ladder). But percentage is still roughly as reflective of who you've played as win-loss ratio is, so I don't think it's necessarily that much more accurate of a guide to form. Your results are, ultimately, only as good as the teams you play.

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:00 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

The injury ladder is hard to work out because there are about 8 teams in the middle separated by percentage only, so I can only suggest a few at the top and bottom. (1 = best injury profile; 18 = worst.)

1. Brisbane
2. WCE
3. WB
4. Essendon
5. Geelong
...

16. Melbourne
17. Hawthorn
18. StK


Teams at the bottom of the injury ladder but top of the form ladder deserve a tick. We can see why Brisbane & WCE are doing well now.
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:28 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Round 4 Form Ladder:

1. Geelong
2. West Coast
3. GWS
4. Collingwood
5. Brisbane
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Port Adelaide
8. St. Kilda

9. Hawthorn
10. Fremantle
11. Gold Coast
12. Essendon
13. Richmond
14. Adelaide
15. Carlton
16. Sydney
17. North Melbourne
18. Melbourne

That bottom four is really hard to untangle, and not really confident about the order of positions 6–11, either – but I think this'll do. At least, even though we're 2-2, we're not far behind the best teams!

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:17 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

David wrote:
...
At least, even though we're 2-2, we're not far behind the best teams!

The teams most in form aren't necessarily the best teams.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:18 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Brisbane were on top of the injury ladder and then had two hamstring injuries in the same game.
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Rd10.1998_11.1#36 

rd10.1998_11.1#36


Joined: 18 Jul 2018
Location: Sevilla, Spain

PostPosted: Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:18 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

...which, on top of the result, just shows what a waste of time this thread is
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Jezza Taurus

2023 PREMIERS!


Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:28 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Is a form ladder the same as power rankings?
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