Form ladder 2019

[K]

Golly. The injury ladder and form ladder look quite similar to me.
Do we want premierships decided mostly by injuries?

[derkd]

The (Premerships) almost always have been decided by injury, with few exceptions... Brisbane 2003 they were so banged up they flew down 18 vile's of painkillers to get several players up to play the Grand final .....If Collingwood had bothered to show up that day we probably should have won it.

If we had not been so damaged by injuries last year we probably (hindsight is a beautiful thing) should have won. However again like Brisbane 2003, Gellong 2011 and West Coast last year....we are spooked by or just don't know how to beat them.

[K]

Not sure how many GFs are decided by injuries.

WC last year had injuries too. (They're doing very well so far this year.)

But nowadays injuries may be deciding the whole H&A ladder. Just have a look at those two ladders on the last page. There's no doubt that if Richmond had the same injuries as their main rivals in the last two seasons they'd have no flag and may not even have made the finals.

[David]

As a bit of propaganda for this exercise, watch the Bulldogs playing Richmond tonight – with two more wins, Richmond were big favourites and the actual ladder (which has them 7 places higher) would seem to justify that. But in my work tipping competition, I chose the Western Bulldogs on the basis of my own form ladder, where they’re the ones who are three places higher than Richmond.

Now, the game could still go either way, but I note that the Bulldogs are 18 points up halfway through the third quarter. Either way, they’re doing a lot better than many would have expected.

[K]

You know what I think about Richmond! They are still in the middle of the pack on the injury ladder (nowhere near as bad as StK), but after being injury-free for almost two years, which severely inflated their on-field performance, they're now being exposed as pretenders when they have the same problems all the other teams have.

There's no doubt the fixture distorts everything. It distorts everything even after R23! The difference between a perfect version of your form ladder and the actual AFL ladder after R23 would tell us how unfair the fixture is.

[K]

WB smash Richmond 99-52.

[K]

WC are probably too high on David's ladder.

This is about right:

"Major doubts still hang over West Coast's flag defence

For a half against Gold Coast, the out-of-sorts Eagles looked like they were starting to rediscover some of the form which carried them to a stunning premiership last year. But after taking a 39-point buffer into half-time, West Coast watched that lead whittled away by a brave Suns outfit that many expected might not win a game this season. We now know the Suns are much more competitive than most thought, but there are still so many questions to be answered for West Coast, despite the 23-point win lifting the reigning premiers to 4-3 this year. Collectively, the competitive desire hasn't been at the level required, and inconsistencies within games – with good quarters here and there punctuated by total fadeouts – would be incredibly frustrating for coach Adam Simpson. Internally, the Eagles are confident they will get better as the season rolls on..." - Travis King (afl.com.au)

[David]

Yep, for sure. And I think I’ve clearly underrated Adelaide, who have had three really good games in a row now. That 5–11 range is still really hard to separate, though, and it’s only because of their patchy form that I can’t drop West Coast any further down.

Round 7 form ladder:

1. Geelong
2. GWS
3. Collingwood
4. West Coast
5. Fremantle
6. Essendon
7. Adelaide
8. Port Adelaide

9. Western Bulldogs
10. Brisbane
11. St. Kilda
12. Richmond
13. Hawthorn
14. Gold Coast
15. North Melbourne
16. Melbourne
17. Carlton
18. Sydney

[K]

R7 injury ladder (1 = best; 18 = worst):

1. Brisbane
2. WCE
3. Geelong
4. WB
5. Essendon
6. GWS
7. Fremantle
8. Port
9. Carlton
10. GC
11. Richmond
12. Collingwood
13. Adelaide
14. Sydney
15. NM
16. Hawthorn
17. Melbourne
18. StK

Brisbane are putting space between themselves and the rest at the top of the ladder, with Andrews expected to return this week. Their only injuries then will be Adams & Starcevich, whose names probably condemned them to the Collingwood injury curse. With Steven out indefinitely again, StK are mired at the bottom. It will be very hard for them to keep winning from here on the way they did in the first 6 weeks. Adelaide & Hawthorn could start rising up the injury ladder in the next few weeks as their injury lists clear. Geelong, with questions over Selwood, Tuohy & Dangerfield, could slip down. Richmond's injuries are wildly exaggerated, though I did think about whether the Pies have passed them. (Maybe if Tay didn't get injured.) There are 12+ teams in the middle that are hard to separate. (e.g. Port, who are ranked three places ahead of woe-is-me Richmond, have leaders Wines & Jonas and key players R. Gray, Dixon & Watts now all injured.)

[Rd10.1998_11.1#36]

[David]

Thanks for the analysis! I haven't looked at the actual ladder, but good to know the similarities and differences between the two (the fact that my bottom six aligns with the 'real' one is a total coincidence).

Of course, you have to keep in mind that this is only my form ladder – someone else might well have Brisbane higher or West Coast lower, though it's important to keep in mind that West Coast have had a much harder draw so far (and have still managed to beat three of the top five teams). Three of Brisbane's wins, in contrast, have come against teams in the bottom six.

[K]

[Pies4shaw]

This century, only one team that was not in the 8 at the end of round 7 has gone on to win the Flag. That was Sydney, 14 years ago. Even then, Sydney was 10th after 7 rounds that year. So, everyone below West Coast on the actual ladder can probably pack it in for 2019, now. West Coast and Richmond can still be considered serious contenders, if they can get their games going but the rest are probably just taking up bandwidth. That’s not to say that one or two from lower than 10th can’t make the 8 - it is just that they will be merely making up the numbers, if they do.

[David]

Round 8 form ladder:

1. Geelong
2. Collingwood
3. GWS
4. West Coast
5. Adelaide
6. Fremantle
7. Essendon
8. Western Bulldogs

9. Port Adelaide
10. Brisbane
11. Richmond
12. Hawthorn
13. St. Kilda
14. North Melbourne
15. Gold Coast
16. Melbourne
17. Sydney
18. Carlton

[Pies4shaw]

"Hawthorn are a real threat this year." C'mon - we know we aren't happy until someone says it.