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May 18th Federal Election

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:46 am
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partypie wrote:
The big question is whether the country is really experiencing the strong economy spruced during the election campaign


Have a feeling things might go pear-shaped soon. Labor may have dodged a bullet.

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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
Location: Ballarat!

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 12:53 pm
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Chris Kenny nails it.

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6040069675001

If you think Labor needs to stay left, or move further left then you want them condemned to a generation in opposition.

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:06 pm
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It's true that the progressive media class are detached from mainstream Australian thought. But Murdoch journalists like Kenny are the other side of the same coin. Sky News and Alan Jones types think they're the voice of the people, but hardly anybody apart from diehard Lib voters listen to or care about them. Most people are fairly apolitical and will either vote the way they always have or swing on specific policy issues, as opposed to culture war rubbish.

If Kenny was right and really representative of mainstream Australian views, then we wouldn't be looking at results like the Coalition winning 51-49 or (heaven forbid) even sometimes losing; they'd win in a landslide every time. The fact is, a lot of normal everyday Australians already do care about climate change, and that number will only increase as the younger generation gets the vote and the old climate sceptics find themselves ever more marginalised.

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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:13 pm
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Alan Jones, Rowan Dean and Peta Credlin all predicted the election result almost exactly. Obviously they're closer to the pulse than you think. Labor wins when they focus on the working class and on services, health and education. Their wins have come from the Labor Right; Hawke, Keating and Rudd. Gillard was of the left but didn't rock the boat on social issues and still barely scraped in.

Shorten was doing great but couldn't keep the left in check during the campaign; carping on about taxing the rich, gender centres and massive climate change action.

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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 3:59 pm
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Rundle offers his post-mortem:

https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/05/20/aftermath-of-losing-the-unlosable/

Quote:
Well they’ve only gone and bloody done it. The mighty Australian Labor Party have lost the unlosable election, with the seat numbers between the major parties pretty much unchanged, after a couple of swaps.

Almost worse than the loss for progressives is the feeling that this was all a waste of time. All that rallying, all that energy, the agony and the ecstasy, and nothing much was said by the Australian people in their vote.

They decisively rejected Labor in certain parts of Queensland and Tasmania; they didn’t embrace them sufficiently in Victoria or New South Wales. The one or two new left independents/Greens didn’t eventuate; existing independents kept their seats. All of that for all of this.

Well, okay, a moment of Cassandra time now. Your correspondent noted in February that Labor appeared in danger of throwing this away, and so it proved. Hearing Mathias Cormann and Chris Bowen on the radio — one a rabid attack dog on tax, the other woolly and professorial, I remarked:

Quote:
There is a complacency that has settled across the land, that this is in the bag for Labor, that we’re just playing out time, that can we get to May and get this over with. And it reminds me exactly, exactly of Hillary versus Trump in 2016. I’m not saying Morrison is like Trump — nothing is worse than those ‘X is Y’s Trump’ pieces — but I am saying that there is a disjuncture, an asymmetry between Labor and the Coalition that is leaving a gap for the latter through which a path to victory or a messy draw could be made.


So it has proved. Labor loyalists went the tong on that article, which was a measure of the magical thinking already taking over Labor circles: to criticise was to mozz victory. There was the same reaction when I expressed a concern that Labor was piling up big ticket items — big tax takes, big spends — without joining them together in an overall strategy, a take on the world. This was a denigration of Labor’s bold vision, the risks it was taking etc.

Well Labor was taking a risk, but it didn’t have the courage or imagination to go further and make a case as to what this was all for, what sort of society they wanted to create. They were running for federal office like it was a state election, emphasising redistribution without talking about the whole picture. As I also noted. They bore the cost of their “big ticket” strategy, and gained none of the benefit from a more comprehensive vision. Which is pretty ironic, for a party that has become so economistic in its manner.

So, yes, the Murdoch press was brutal and relentless, and Clive Palmer may have drained votes away. But these things were to be expected. There was no way to combat them, save with an alternative vision that would break through the propaganda wall.

What one heard, out in the backblocks and in the suburbs, was the opposite. Save for the groups around some independents, there was an absolute lack of enthusiasm, a deeping cynicism about politicians, a visceral dislike of Bill Shorten that intensified as the weeks went on, and a warming to Scott Morrison.

Labor seemed, as it seemed in the Beazley/Crean years, dazed and zombified. Not knowing why it was doing what it was doing, and coming to life only in death, when the Bob Hawke exequies commenced. Everyone thought this might be good for a point or two; insofar as it had any effect at all, it fed Labor’s immense capacity for self-involvement.

When on Sunday I heard that standard Labor refrain — ah, but Bill gave a great concession speech — I wondered why I had been fooled again by a party that never gave the impression that they passionately wanted power. You shouldn’t be able to give a good concession speech! Politics, like love, is meant to destroy you! You should be helped, shambling, to the microphone, to say a few short words, and get off ahead of total collapse.

The common refrain has been that Labor had two choices: a conservative small target strategy, or the “bold” one they took. It wasn’t bold at all. It was piecemeal but pricey, an inept combination, the worst possible. Missing entirely was the third possibility: one in which Labor talked of production and work, not just distribution, about how we could transform the way we live, about our place in a changing world.

Now they’re talking about waiting for 2022, as if it’s theirs. Last Saturday night, they lost the era. They can go on losing it indefinitely with that attitude. You didn’t think they could, but they’ve only gone and bloody done it.


I had a look at that article that he quotes, which I must have missed at the time, and have to say it's pretty damn perceptive:

https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/02/05/federal-election-labor-lose/

Here's a quick excerpt:

Quote:
The simple version of the 2016 US election is that Hillary went — or stayed — high in the pompous and pretentious language of US politics, while Trump went low. He mobilised the sensibility and ethical framing of reality TV, to hole the Democrat campaign below the waterline. But that’s an oversimplification. Hillary going high only failed because she presented no encompassing vision within which individual policies, or her exhausting personal narrative, could be set. Obama had that vision, expressed in big policies, and could thus go to the heights of oratory.

Sadly, I’m getting the same vibe off Shorten-Bowen Labor. The point is surely that if you’re going to have the courage to put in some big tax policies and seek a mandate for them; you’ve got to make them part of a bigger argument. You’ve got to yoke it to national development, combined with the battle for equality of opportunity and the universality of the means of life. You’ve got to name the mix of sadism, rentism and denialism of the Coalition government for what it is: a refusal to face up to the real challenges that a nation and humanity faces, the absence of an idea of the good society.

Absent of that, the franking rebate take-back looks arbitrary; there will be people who will dip to a significantly lower standard of living. To explain your move simply by saying that you’re removing an anomaly that rebates people for tax they didn’t pay in the first place is a technocratic rationale, posing as a moral one. Labor had the same screw-up with the mining superprofits tax under Rudd: they never sold the whole package of re-investing in a nation with money that was its by right. They looked high-handed and disdainful. They were doing government, while the Opposition was doing politics.


Of course, it's easy to say, as I did in my own article, that Labor need to be better at communicating, but precisely how is another question. Perhaps Rundle nails that here: it's about telling a coherent story, not just offering slivers of unrelated policy planks that don't seem to have a broader rationale.

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partypie 



Joined: 01 Oct 2010


PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 6:49 pm
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David wrote:
partypie wrote:
The big question is whether the country is really experiencing the strong economy spruced during the election campaign


Have a feeling things might go pear-shaped soon. Labor may have dodged a bullet.


Nobody really wants that to happen - senate numbers finalised to pass the tax cuts before July 1 could make some difference. Morrison took a punt on that.
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Pies4shaw 



Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 8:26 pm
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The problem with getting Senate results is that the candidates have to be placed in a Petri dish for weeks, so they can grow to a critical mass.
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Skids Cancer



Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 12:58 pm
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David wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
if Labor loses the unloseable, I'll spit up a lung laughing and little bill will be shortenly unemployed.


I'd seriously be in a "leaving the country" mood if that happened. Not in the anti-Trump "we're all doomed" sense, but because it would be a huge reward for uselessness and just make me despair of anything ever getting better politically here.


Got your itinerary yet David?
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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 1:18 pm
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I know it’s an objectively bad attitude and bad politics but, yeah, honestly, if we had the means then we’d be seriously considering it. Even you’d have to admit that this country kind of sucks sometimes.
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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: preparing the Pilosocereus suppository

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 7:43 pm
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Youdlike Wellington Razz Wink
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Morrigu Capricorn



Joined: 11 Aug 2001


PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 10:59 pm
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the Senate
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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 1:46 pm
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https://www.facebook.com/169928983054650/posts/2265920696788791?sfns=1
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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: preparing the Pilosocereus suppository

PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 2:20 pm
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^

Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing


https://www.newzealandnow.govt.nz/why-choose-nz/compare-new-zealand/australia Wink

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Skids Cancer



Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 11:36 am
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This really is becoming a bonanza!

13th of March...

Mr Oliver said each $US10 difference in the iron ore price above Treasury expectations lifts Commonwealth revenue by about $3 billion to $4 billion over a full year.

The 2018 budget forecast the price of iron ore at $US55 a tonne but it been hovering between $US80 and $US85 a tonne for the past month and has sat above $US65 a tonne since September

The price of Iron Ore on Friday 24th of May was $105.32 and indicators show it gaining again tonight.

$US50 a tonne above budget forecast equates to $150 billion - $200 billion above the forecast.

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwj2tLX6u7riAhWC7XMBHaDfBKMQzPwBCAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com.au%2Firon-ore-price-forecasts-china-2019-5&psig=AOvVaw1c9TgnGLVh1C1UineCAlBN&ust=1559003824285158
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Pies4shaw 



Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 2:59 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
^

Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing


https://www.newzealandnow.govt.nz/why-choose-nz/compare-new-zealand/australia Wink

He'll need some accommodation, so I found David a couple of places to live there, too:

https://www.realestate.co.nz/2935597

https://www.realestate.co.nz/3358925
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