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May 18th Federal Election

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 8:29 pm
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^

I saw Albo on the project, pitching to be the next opposition leader.

From a bloke labelled as being too left, he actually seems to get it.

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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 8:38 pm
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House of Representatives:
- Coalition = 76 (projected to win 78 seats)
- Labor = 65 (projected to win 67 seats)
- Greens = 1
- Katter = 1
- Centre Alliance = 1
- Independents = 3

Seats in Doubt (HoR):
Bass (89.1% counted)
- Coalition = 50.4% (32,983)
- Labor = 49.6% (32,486)

Cowan (78.8% counted)
- Labor = 50.5% (37,273)
- Coalition = 49.5% (36,520)

Lilley (82.1% counted)
- Labor = 50.5% (43,638)
- Coalition = 49.5% (42,796)

Macquarie (87.5% counted)
- Coalition = 50.1% (45,500)
- Labor = 49.9% (45,304)

Primary Vote:
- Coalition = 41.7% (-0.4%)
- Labor = 33.7% (-1.0%)
- Greens = 9.9% (-0.3%)
- United Australia = 3.4% (+3.4%)
- One Nation = 3.0% (+1.7%)
- Others = 8.3% (-2.3%)

Senate:
- Coalition = 34 (projected to win 35)
- Labor = 26
- Greens = 8 (projected to win 9)
- Centre Alliance = 2
- One Nation = 1 (projected to win 2)
- Australian Conservatives = 1
- Jacqui Lambie Network = 1

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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 8:54 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
^

I saw Albo on the project, pitching to be the next opposition leader.

From a bloke labelled as being too left, he actually seems to get it.

The key will be whether he can appeal to regional and rural QLD.

There's no doubt he's more popular than Shorten amongst Labor Party members, and I expect him to win the leadership contest.

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 8:57 pm
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Morrigu, don't give up on Qld.

Quote:
"What the hell is wrong with Queensland?"

Such comments are at the polite end of social media responses from progressive voters in other parts of Australia who were disappointed by the Coalition's "miracle" win on Saturday.

Putting to one side the fact that the swings against Labor were not much bigger in Queensland than some other parts of the country, and that it had the most marginal seats in the election, the instinct to blame and deride Queensland highlights exactly what went wrong for the ALP.

Contrary to the claims of #Quexiteers, Queenslanders are not all deeply conservative, rusted-on LNP voters, even in central and northern regions.

If they were, they wouldn't have elected Labor governments for 25 of the past 30 years.




Quote:
The problem for Labor, then, isn't that Queenslanders don't like voting Labor.

Instead, the federal Labor Party, like the many pundits who predicted an ALP win, seem to have underestimated or misunderstood the variances and nuances of the Queensland electorate.

As the only state where a majority of the population lives outside the capital city, regionalism matters in Queensland in a way it does not elsewhere.


Good article IMHO, worth a read by those who consider them all rednecks. It's a case of different priorities, something that Bob Brown and his convoy seriously misread.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-22/quexit-is-not-the-answer-to-labors-loss-in-queensland/11139408

I like Qld, particularly FNQ, I like the people. They're genuine, unpretentious and don't take shit.

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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005


PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 9:15 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
nswer-to-labors-loss-in-queensland/11139408

I like Qld, particularly FNQ, I like the people. They're genuine, unpretentious and don't take shit.


So the exact opposite of the inner city trendies deriding them.
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 9:40 pm
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Jezza wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
^

I saw Albo on the project, pitching to be the next opposition leader.

From a bloke labelled as being too left, he actually seems to get it.

The key will be whether he can appeal to regional and rural QLD.

There's no doubt he's more popular than Shorten amongst Labor Party members, and I expect him to win the leadership contest.


At the moment it seems a no contest

A couple of comments he made were that they can't just focus on wealth re-distribution but also on wealth creation. He also tried to say how job creation can co exist with climate change measures and referred to the jobs created in renewables, but when Waleed challenged him that those jobs don't help coal miners in Qld, he looked like a 13 yr old caught having a tug and stuttered his way through the rest.

That's a conflict that Labor will need to resolve. They love miners and other unionised workers, but don't like the companies that employ them. Workers will vote for their paycheck every day over ideology that will lose them their job.

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 9:43 pm
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Wokko wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
nswer-to-labors-loss-in-queensland/11139408

I like Qld, particularly FNQ, I like the people. They're genuine, unpretentious and don't take shit.


So the exact opposite of the inner city trendies deriding them.


Yep. They remind me of rural people. They'll tolerate inner city lefties while they spend cash as a tourist, but don't try to lecture them or tell them what to do.

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Morrigu Capricorn



Joined: 11 Aug 2001


PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 11:21 pm
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Henderson concedes Corangamite to Labor’s Libby Coker

Excellent news! Should have stuck to your promise Sarah! Too late, too bad, too sad!
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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 2:15 pm
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ABC calls Bass for the Coalition, taking it to 77 seats.

Jim Chalmers has opted to not contest for the Labor leadership contest, paving the way for Albanese to succeed Shorten.

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 2:55 pm
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I think we should have learned by now that personal ideology and even factional alliances say little about what a party leader's policy direction will be.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/albanese-vows-to-end-labors-classwar-rhetoric/news-story/5dccd3b687017f55145bdf4750be803c?fbclid=IwAR2BIx3ZDydLYojNlvOlVzZsIkoZbfvfrpI-pCxkYMgQveKzzP7GI4LfvI0

Quote:
Mr Albanese, 56, has the support of right-wing unions in NSW, which believe the Grayndler MP, despite his formal factional ties to the Left, would steer the party back to the centre. Defenders of Mr Shorten claim the Victorian Right factional ­powerbroker was forced to steer the party to the Left over the past six years in a constant process of dealmaking to ensure leadership stability.


By the same token, Morrison arguably went slightly to the left of Turnbull after the leadership spill, despite obviously being much further right-wing personally. No idea how that'll play out post-election, though.

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Morrigu Capricorn



Joined: 11 Aug 2001


PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 6:54 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
I like Qld, particularly FNQ, I like the people. They're genuine, unpretentious and don't take shit.


Except from Clive it seems Wink I wonder if he will ever pay his workers?? No need I suppose when they vote for you anyway Rolling Eyes
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 7:23 pm
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^

Palmer was born at Footscray Hospital and lived in Williamstown before moving to the Gold Coast at 9. Hardly typical of FNQ, reasonably typical of the Gold Coast but I make no comment on Footscray. Wink Razz

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Morrigu Capricorn



Joined: 11 Aug 2001


PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 7:30 pm
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^ Laughing I know ( no recognition plaque in the foyer that's for sure) but to me it makes it even more incredible that they voted for him - a southerner who shamelessly ripped them off - they've gone soft it seems - in the old days he would have been tarred and feathered or run out of town Wink Razz
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 7:33 pm
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David wrote:
I think we should have learned by now that personal ideology and even factional alliances say little about what a party leader's policy direction will be.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/albanese-vows-to-end-labors-classwar-rhetoric/news-story/5dccd3b687017f55145bdf4750be803c?fbclid=IwAR2BIx3ZDydLYojNlvOlVzZsIkoZbfvfrpI-pCxkYMgQveKzzP7GI4LfvI0

Quote:
Mr Albanese, 56, has the support of right-wing unions in NSW, which believe the Grayndler MP, despite his formal factional ties to the Left, would steer the party back to the centre. Defenders of Mr Shorten claim the Victorian Right factional ­powerbroker was forced to steer the party to the Left over the past six years in a constant process of dealmaking to ensure leadership stability.




By the same token, Morrison arguably went slightly to the left of Turnbull after the leadership spill, despite obviously being much further right-wing personally. No idea how that'll play out post-election, though.


I'm not subscribing to the Australian to read it, but I think I got the gist elsewhere.

Basically, he wants to steer the party to centre left, push back on Unions and the Greens agendas, put a focus on wealth creation not just redistribution and basically make them a viable alternative.

If he delivers on that, he's smart. The centre is where elections are usually won, the extremes serve their purpose by giving voters an option and providing preferences to their closest aligned major party.

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partypie 



Joined: 01 Oct 2010


PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:29 am
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The big question is whether the country is really experiencing the strong economy spruced during the election campaign
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