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May 18th Federal Election

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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
Location: Ballarat!

PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:54 am
Post subject: May 18th Federal ElectionReply with quote

Multiple news sources stating that Morrison will call the election tomorrow for May 18th. The Coalition is coming from 10 lengths back but Labor have put the crop away. I expect Shorten to do everything he can to lose but sneak in with a small majority.

Of course Morrison is the marketing manager of PMs so I expect him to look like a tosser more often than not.

My preferred result is a Coalition minority who have to form Government with Katter and One Nation just for the laughs. Laughing

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regan is true fullback 



Joined: 27 Dec 2002
Location: Granville. nsw

PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:30 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Once again those latte sipping socialists, the bookies, have labor at $1.18, the cons at $4.85. Unlike the Libs they don't just give money away...

Opinion polls have barely budged since Malcolm was toppled.

NSW, the state where Labor was supposedly in trouble has 2 seats Reid and Gilmore where well known local members have left, with new Lib candidates annoying to the public...

2 new seats, one in Victoria and one in Canberra, mean that the seats of Dunkley and Corangamite are notionally Labor.

So that's 5 free seats before we even start on the seats the government must win to maintain its minority status.

Adani seats are held by the Coalition so not much joy there.

But in the suburbs of Brisbane...

The last time the Coalition achieved this feat was 1977, the year when anything could happen.

For those desperate souls hoping for a post Reagan/Thatcher type bounce, the current mob are more Boris Johnson than Bossy Maggie.
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Pies4shaw 



Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:18 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Australian_federal_election

This may be a convenient link to get the opinion poll summary. Also, the main two-party preferred graphic representation over time looks a little like a bullant. That may be the most interesting thing about this entire election.
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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:47 am
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Morrison still selling the lie that Labor wrecked Howard’s economy. It’s almost like nothing else was happening around the world in 2007–2008...
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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
Location: Ballarat!

PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:05 am
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I've seen this bookies and opinion polls wrong time and again lately so don't hold much confidence in them, but Morrison is totally uninspiring and is the 3rd PM in this incarnation of Liberal government so I'm expecting him to get bounced like Rudd did. Hard to see who's the opposition leader after they get rolled, does Abbott rise Howard, I mean Lazarus like and retake the leadership? Laughing
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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:10 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Almost wonder if they'll end up with a Brendon Nelson-like lame duck (someone like Frydenberg, Porter or Birmingham) before Abbott or someone else makes a move halfway through the term. You'd have to think Dutton would be the most obvious choice to take over from Morrison (FMD), but there's absolutely no guarantee that he'll even hold his seat.

Alternatively, if Labor loses, my bet is that Shorten will stand down for Plibersek.

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Skids Cancer



Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:50 pm
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The huge jump in Iron Ore prices has handed this pair of Buffoons a large treasure chest, to no doubt waste, on bullshit promises and policies.

I'll be voting for an Independent or One Nation and putting these 2 last.

Fill out your ballot paper, don't let anyone give your preferences away!

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Skids Cancer



Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:55 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

regan is true fullback wrote:
Once again those latte sipping socialists, the bookies, have labor at $1.18, the cons at $4.85. Unlike the Libs they don't just give money away.


Some interesting novelties;

Labor 60 seats or less $21
Labor 61 to 65 seats $12
Labor 66 to 70 seats $8
Labor 71 to 75 seats $7.50
Labor 76 to 80 seats $5.20
Labor 81 to 85 seats $2.70
Labor 86 to 90 seats $2.80
Labor 91 to 100 seats $4.85
Labor More than 100 seats $16
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KenH Gemini



Joined: 24 Jan 2010


PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:59 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Skids wrote:
The huge jump in Iron Ore prices has handed this pair of Buffoons a large treasure chest, to no doubt waste, on bullshit promises and policies.

I'll be voting for an Independent or One Nation and putting these 2 last.

Fill out your ballot paper, don't let anyone give your preferences away!


Voting One Nation? I didn't realise you are a Queenslander?
I will be voting One Nation last or very close to it, depends on what religious groups are in my area!

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:10 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

A good state-by-state analysis here:

https://insidestory.org.au/over-the-top-with-scott/

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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
Location: Ballarat!

PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:22 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

I choose Labor or Liberal with my last and second last preferences before the Greens and Socialists.

LDP, Bernardi's Party, One Nation all get my vote before it goes to one of the majors. We live in a preferential voting system, why people keep primary voting the two headed Laborals is beyond me.

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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: preparing the Pilosocereus suppository

PostPosted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:12 pm
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My seat is Jenny macklins seat, but she's retired. The Libs routinely win the primary vote but Labor gets elected with Green preferences.

If the same bloke campaigns for the Libs who has in the past, I wouldn't be surprised if he wins. I'm going to vote for Liberal if he does run, as he's a good bloke and Macklin would have got a good percentage of votes on her profile alone.

I'm voting that way for purely selfish reasons, to hopefully push this seat into a marginal one to get more federal money, I don't really care who wins they're all as bad as each other.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:47 pm
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Plan to vote the Libs in the lower house, and the Australian Conservatives in the upper house.
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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: preparing the Pilosocereus suppository

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:09 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting little tool on the ABC website

https://votecompass.abc.net.au/

Some of the questions could be phrased better, but overall it's OK.

I landed dead smack in the middle of the grid.

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luvdids Sagittarius



Joined: 22 Mar 2008
Location: work

PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:08 pm
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Oh god, so we've got 5 weeks of political ads/torture to go. At least then the Palmer crap will be off the tv. And they won't be calling or messaging my mobile.

Also hoping Sukkar loses his seat, my electorate (Deakin)
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