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US election 2020

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:47 am
Post subject: US election 2020Reply with quote

It might seem absurd to start a thread now about an election thats almost two years away, but then, this is American politics several politicians have already announced their candidacies, and more will follow suit over the next few months. The first debates will be held in a bit over six months, and the party primaries will kick off in early 2020.

Its still unclear as to whether much will be happening on the Republican side of the fence. While primaries are always held, the convention is that sitting presidents dont face any serious challenges. There have been exceptions to that rule most recently, Ronald Reagans unsuccessful challenge of Gerald Ford in 1976 but theres every reason to think that, with all the scandals surrounding his presidency and lingering resentment from establishment figures, therell be a major push from a more conventional Republican candidate to unseat Donald Trump. Possible candidates here might be John Kasich or Ben Sasse; but given Trumps popularity with the Republican base, nobody might be game enough to put their hand up and face humiliation.

On the Democratic side, however, the list of candidates is long and getting ever more crowded. Here are a few of the front-runners and what they stand for:

Elizabeth Warren: One of the most left-wing of the actual Democrats, Warren is most known for pursuing big bank CEOs over the 2008 financial crisis. Shes already announced that shes running, and is one of the favourites to win. Ive often thought that a candidate that strikes a middle ground between Clintons mainstream appeal and Sanders progressive politics would be best-placed to be the next Democratic candidate, and Warren fits that bill perfectly.

Joe Biden: The former vice-president under Barack Obama, Bidens probably the candidate with the biggest name recognition right now, and has been the frontrunner in most polls. Hes probably among the more conservative candidates he supported the Iraq War and has an unfortunate history of voting against de-segregation measures back in the 1970s, and presents himself as a more common sense moderate in opposition to progressives like Sanders. At 76, his age is likely to be a big factor in whether he decides to run, but if he does, one would have to think hell go pretty far.

Bernie Sanders: Its unclear whether hell run again, but if he does then youd think Sanders will, again, receive huge amounts of support from young leftists. Hes still going to be the only genuine socialist in the race (Warrens still basically a capitalist reformist), and hes my preferred choice by a mile. At 77, hes likely to be the oldest candidate running, but lets not forget that many of his competitors including Warren, Biden and Trump himself are also in their 70s. Sanders just happens to look like hes 100 years old.

Kirsten Gillibrand: A real establishment Democrat, with significant corporate ties and vanilla liberal-capitalist policy agenda. Shes been most outspoken on cracking down on sexual harassment. Started off her political career very right-wing (for a Democrat) and gradually moved to the left on various issues as it became more fashionable so not exactly much of a conviction candidate, by the looks of things.

Beto ORourke: Charismatic younger guy who narrowly lost last years mid-term senate race in Texas against Ted Cruz. For some reason everybody loves him at the moment, but from what I can tell his politics are pretty middle-of-the-road Democrat. Smokes weed and skateboards, or something.

Kamala Harris: Seems one of the slightly more progressive Democrats, though has a somewhat mixed record on criminal justice (she previously served as California attorney-general). Im a bit undecided on her, but people seem to think shell go far in the primaries.

Cory Booker: One of the younger candidates in the race, and the only notable African-American politician on this list. I havent got a great read on this guy yet, but he has a bit of a reputation as a moderate, and thus perhaps more in the Clinton tradition.

Julian Castro: Has been talked up for years as a future president, and is probably slightly on the left of some of the other candidates (supports medicare for all, for instance). Dont know a lot about him, but it seems hes a fairly popular figure.

Tulsi Gabbard: One of the weirdest major candidates, Gabbard supported Sanders in 2016 but is a much stranger fish politically, fitting in loosely with what could be nicely called the anti-imperialist left or, as those of the rest of us on the left like to disparagingly call them, tankies. Think John Pilger, George Galloway and the kind of leftists who share Russia Today links on social media. Basically, she never met a repressive foreign leader she didnt like Putin, Assad, Modi but on the other hand tends to oppose all US wars and foreign intervention.

Im sure some others will throw their hats in theres still the (unpleasant) possibility of a celebrity candidate like Winfrey or Zuckerberg running and some of the above may yet decide not to run at all, but itll be interesting to see what pans out as the year progresses.

(As an interesting and kind of depressing sidenote, this will be the first time in nearly 50 years and only the second time in the history of the US that a partys presidential primary has had more than one female candidate which means that, for instance, we have never actually seen women debating against each other in a presidential primary debate.)

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think positive Libra

Side By Side


Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:46 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

A guy who smokes skateboards sounds interesting!
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Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:51 am
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There aren't many guys like that.
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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: preparing the Pilosocereus suppository

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:22 am
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think positive wrote:
A guy who smokes skateboards sounds interesting!


I read it the same way/ Razz Laughing

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Skids Cancer



Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:25 am
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Current SB market for the 2020 presidential election;

Trumpinator $2.55

O'Rourke $6.50
Harris $9
Biden $13
Warren $17

M.Obama $17
Bernie $21
Pence $26
Gabbard $26
Klobuchar $31
Bloomberg $31
Booker $31
Gillibrand $34
Joe Kennedy the third $41
Shapirio $51
Hitlery $51
Oprah $51
Castro $67
Kayne West $201
Beyonc $301
Oscar de la Hoya $401

Stormy Daniels & Wokko $501

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:16 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Skids! Given the not-totally-remote possibility of Trump being impeached or resigning before the election, youd have to think Pence and a few other Republicans would be worth at least long-shot odds.
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Last edited by David on Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: preparing the Pilosocereus suppository

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:16 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

That Castro and the Medicare for all is an interesting one, it just can't fly unless their entire health system is completely upended.

They have a unique health system over there and despite only a small percentage of it being paid for by the federal government, that results in more money spent on heallth as a % of GDP than any other first world country by a long way.

This is an interesting summary albeit from a union perspective.

https://dpeaflcio.org/programs-publications/issue-fact-sheets/the-u-s-health-care-system-an-international-perspective/

A direct comparison between the US and AUS systems by n aussie GP.

https://onthewards.org/the-inside-scoop-part-one-a-comparison-of-the-us-and-australian-healthcare-systems/

short summary, introducing universal health coverage in the USA would require the whole system to be overhauled.

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:20 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Theres increasing will for that overhaul to happen, though. It was pretty much Sanders central campaign plank from 2016, and a number of major Democratic candidates have since jumped on board (including Castro, Harris and Warren expect it to be a big topic of friction in the primary debates).
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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:36 pm
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It may well be a big discussion topic, but it's no where near a simple fix. Just saying to copy Aus Medicare system just won't work the way there's is structured.

There's far call regulation of fees, no PBS, it's all over the shop. Anyone who got elected promising to fix that is on a hiding to nothing, they'll fail. Badly.

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: où surréal côtoie

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:10 pm
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I'm sure there's no magic bullet solution, but a responsible candidate will be planning to lay the groundwork for whatever long-term transition plan is required. In any case, we can comfortably presume that the pro-Medicare candidates' arguments will be put under the microscope by "realists" like Biden and Gillibrand throughout the campaign.
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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: preparing the Pilosocereus suppository

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:59 pm
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Have a read of those articles I linked to, it's no easy fix.

Plus other things I've read suggests that for some reason there's an institutionalised resistance to it. People in the US have a notorious level of distrust of federal government (see gun debate) and it seems to have been tried a few time in different guises over the past 100+ years, but the attitude has been it's not the role of the federal government. Confused

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Skids Cancer



Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 ... aka Assassin member #175

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:13 pm
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They pay $2 for a gallon of petrol, $15k for a mustang, you can get a big breakfast for $1.99 with a free bloody mary, $3 for a packet of smokes... etc, etc.

You can't compare our Medicare system to whatever health system they have. It's a totally different economic structure.

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Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:15 pm
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Like who, specifically?
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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
Location: Ballarat!

PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:44 pm
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I'll never understand your love of socialism. It doesn't work, has never worked and will never work.

Example #137 : India

https://beinglibertarian.com/democratic-socialism-india/

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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:45 pm
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If I had to choose a Democrat then I'll take Tulsi Gabbard I suppose, maybe Creepy Uncle Joe Biden.
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