US election 2020
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| Who do you hope wins the US Election? |
| Trump |
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39% |
[ 9 ] |
| Biden |
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39% |
[ 9 ] |
| Don't Care |
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21% |
[ 5 ] |
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| Total Votes : 23 |
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Message |
stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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But was there a blue dress or cigar involved?
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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think positive 
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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a fat damn lie i think it was!
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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Woods 
Joined: 21 Aug 2013
Location: Melbourne
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| Woods wrote: | [25 Oct 2019] Stand by for the release of the Horowitz and Durham reports.
The impeachment inquiry is the last legal opportunity for the ‘Deep State’ to try and bring Trump down before Barr uses the Horowitz /Durham findings to lay charges on Clinton and many others (both Dem and Rep - because to see this battle in terms of left-right party politics is to miss the point entirely)
Won’t be long now. So start thinking ahead of the story. |
Okay, for those naughty kiddies who haven’t done their homework, here’s a cheat-sheet (from 'The Hill') so you can interpret the news reports when this breaks within the next 24 hrs (and after this there is still the Durham report to come which has real teeth since it has been elevated to a criminal investigation. Horowitz can only recommend charges, not bring them).
Here are five things for the public to remember as they hear and read news stories about the upcoming findings:
1. Most news reporters and analysts who comment on the Horowitz report will not have read it. They will rely on other news reports and/or spin provided by partisans and others with vested interests.
2. Most news reporters and analysts who read any of the report will only review the summary and/or conclusions. Some will read sections pointed out to them by partisans and others with vested interests to prove their particular points.
3. The report will offer plenty of criticism, but often accept the most innocent explanation for any inappropriate act, barring an explicit admission to the contrary.
4. Horowitz is not an island. There are other officials at the inspector general’s office, including the chief counsel, who weigh in on and impact what the report ultimately says.
5. Horowitz’s authority is limited. He doesn’t have the power to prosecute anybody. Even when he has referred an official for possible prosecution, he has to refer the case to the Justice Department - the very agency where the official has friends and colleagues, possibly even co-conspirators. The Department of Justice can - and frequently does - toss aside Horowitz’s recommendations.
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/473595-will-the-horowitz-report-split-the-baby |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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The Horowitz smoking gun turns out to have been a water pistol. Anyone who wants to waste part of their life pointlessly can read the report on the US Justice Department website (in its redacted form).
On my reading, the most interesting thing about the report is that Horowitz seems to think that “administrating” is a word. |
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Woods
Joined: 21 Aug 2013
Location: Melbourne
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The Horowitz report says FBI had "authorized purpose" to probe Trump campaign.
That 'authority' came in large part from the scuttlebut delivered by our very own master of international relations, Alexander Downer:
'Alexander Downer's role in sparking FBI's Trump investigation revealed'.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/north-america/alexander-downer-s-role-in-sparking-fbi-s-trump-investigation-revealed-20191210-p53ieh.html
(And notice the final paragraph in the above story:
"US attorney John Durham, who is conducting a similar [criminal] investigation to Horowitz, said in a statement: 'Based on the evidence collected to date, and while our investigation is ongoing, last month we advised the Inspector General [Horowitz] that we do not agree with some of the report’s conclusions as to predication and how the FBI case was opened.' "
This is a not over yet.) |
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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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Doesn't really have anything to do with the election. It's more Trump vs the Deep State. Looks like Barr is going to go hard and has made 'different conclusions' to Horowitz. Barr is the one who ultimately would decide on criminal investigations.
In election news, Trump pulls ahead in swing states.
https://disrn.com/news/poll-trump-pulls-ahead-in-battleground-states |
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Woods
Joined: 21 Aug 2013
Location: Melbourne
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^ Yeah, "nothing to do with the election", sure.
The US attorney running a criminal investigation for William Bar (Attorney-General of the US), has confirmed today that he disagrees with the findings of the internal FBI review run by Horowitz, which all but guarantees that he WILL be bringing charges against leading Democat members (and possibly a few Republicans too).
But this will have no impact on voters intentions in the election, will it. So carry on - nothing to see here.)
^ "It's more Trump vs the Deep State." The forthcoming election IS Trump vs the Deep State, just like the last one was.
(And why do you and David and others persist in this silly quoting of election opinion polls in the US. These are the same polling companies that deliberately and falsely said Hillary would win in a landslide in 2016. Right up to polling day. And they lied. Left wing and right wing polsters all singing from the same song sheet.) |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| Woods wrote: | | "It's more Trump vs the Deep State." The forthcoming election IS Trump vs the Deep State, just like the last one was. |
I have to laugh at a conspiracy theory that relies on a shadowy cabal simultaneously being so powerful as to rig the results of elections and yet somehow – despite their best efforts to the contrary! – managing to lose one against a turnip-brained reality-TV star, in a contest in which barely over 50% of the eligible population turned up to vote.
So what's more likely to be true here: people power beat the Deep State; or the "Deep State" – or whatever we like to call the assorted bunglers in the CIA, FBI and Washington policy establishment – is merely one among many powerful factions in the US, and thus only a small part of the opposition against Trump*, which also, itself, contains no small amount of people power?
Don't get me wrong: I'm not saying the US is a proper democracy. Of course money and establishment power hold a large sway over who can run for office and who can get elected. But if you think there's somebody behind the wheel, or any puppetmasters overseeing the whole process, then you've only bought into another comfortable fantasy. The world is chaos, and we can look no further than America for ample proof of that.
*if we can even put them squarely in the opposition camp, which I'm sceptical of; as much as the powers that be in those organisations may recognise Trump as a threat to their hegemony and be doing their best to get rid of him, I'm sure there are more than a few MAGA-heads in the upper echelons of the rendition-and-torture community too. Nothing's that simple.
| Woods wrote: | | why do you and David and others persist in this silly quoting of election opinion polls in the US. These are the same polling companies that deliberately and falsely said Hillary would win in a landslide in 2016. Right up to polling day. And they lied. Left wing and right wing polsters all singing from the same song sheet. |
I doubt they were lying – why would they deliberately trash their own credibility? A few more Brexit or Trump-scale polling debacles and people (including political parties, newspapers, etc.) are going to tune out from polls entirely, and those firms will go out of business.
More likely that polling has always been a deeply inexact science and that pollsters have sold a level of certainty to their audience that they're incapable of providing. A lot of that is down to people (including me – I accept the criticism) simply being too obsessed with the daily political news cycle and clinging on to whatever tea leaves we can read. This phenomenon of weekly or fortnightly polling has only really emerged in the last 20 years or so, and there's an argument that we are worse off for it (certainly, it's hard to imagine we would have had so many prime ministers knived between 2007 and 2016 without it).
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All watched over by machines of loving grace
Last edited by David on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:53 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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It's not a very nuanced view to simply dismiss polling as "fake news". The polls in the 2016 Presidential election weren't able to predict turnout, missed several key states and overrepresented Democrat voters without 'tuning' the poll correctly. They also looked at national numbers far too much when the race was decided in Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Now you're right that the media, particularly the neoliberal left like CNN, MSNBC etc used these polls to try and put a sense of the inevitable into Trump voters and suppress voting which is why its best to dismiss poll analysis from main stream media. The same happened here at the last election (Had a win betting on Morrison while the ABC/Nine/Fairfax all told us that Labor were a shoe in). Looking deeper though the polls were dead right, QLD was going to go hard Liberal on the back of political ineptness of Labor/Greens pushing hard against Adani.
Like some people thinking the impeachment or some Trump allies being convicted was going to hand the Dems an easy 2020 win thinking that a few Dem operatives getting jailed will move the needle much is just partisan wishful thinking.
Even if some big fish go down it's not going to matter to blue collar workers in the rust belt. It makes great political theater and I'd love to see the corrupt DNC take a perp walk but it's just the entree. The main course will be Trump eating Warren or Sanders alive on the debate stage  |
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Woods
Joined: 21 Aug 2013
Location: Melbourne
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| ^ [David] For someone who claims to have the qualities of an "editor" you really need to cut down on the verbosity. Do you really expect people to read that rambling screed that goes nowhere. What exactly is it you are trying to say? |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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m8, it's a post on a messageboard, not a doctoral thesis. Read it, don't read it; it's up to you. I think my arguments are already sufficiently clear, but I'm happy to summarise: your "Deep State vs Trump" summation is an absurd oversimplification, and pollsters aren't lying to us; they're just not as good at their job as they'd have as believe. Also, conspiracy theories are for suckers.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Woods
Joined: 21 Aug 2013
Location: Melbourne
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| That's better. |
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Woods
Joined: 21 Aug 2013
Location: Melbourne
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| Wokko wrote: | It's not a very nuanced view to simply dismiss polling as "fake news". The polls in the 2016 Presidential election weren't able to predict turnout, missed several key states and overrepresented Democrat voters without 'tuning' the poll correctly. They also looked at national numbers far too much when the race was decided in Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Now you're right that the media, particularly the neoliberal left like CNN, MSNBC etc used these polls to try and put a sense of the inevitable into Trump voters and suppress voting which is why its best to dismiss poll analysis from main stream media. The same happened here at the last election (Had a win betting on Morrison while the ABC/Nine/Fairfax all told us that Labor were a shoe in). Looking deeper though the polls were dead right, QLD was going to go hard Liberal on the back of political ineptness of Labor/Greens pushing hard against Adani.
Like some people thinking the impeachment or some Trump allies being convicted was going to hand the Dems an easy 2020 win thinking that a few Dem operatives getting jailed will move the needle much is just partisan wishful thinking.
Even if some big fish go down it's not going to matter to blue collar workers in the rust belt. It makes great political theater and I'd love to see the corrupt DNC take a perp walk but it's just the entree. The main course will be Trump eating Warren or Sanders alive on the debate stage |
Thanks for the considered response.
We know from the various investigations (Mueller, Horowitz etc) that Hillary and the Dems knew they were in trouble early in their campaign because they went to the extraordinary lengths of of constructing the "insurance policy" of the Russia collusion hoax well before election day. So the Dems did have compelling polling data that showed them losing in 2016, and acted on it. But publicly the same polster companies ran with a forecasted Hillary win. And it wasn't just polls by the neo-liberal CNN, NBC, NYT, etc news outlets, it was also Murdoch's Fox News.
This is not about party politics. Those who sought to distort the polling information available to the voting public ran the misinformation in news outlets in chorus across the political spectrum.
Last edited by Woods on Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:48 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| What about Horowitz using “administrating” as an alleged word? Doesn’t anyone care about the important things? |
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