Mayday, May Day or D-Day for May: Brexit Update

[David]

The UK's heading to the polls on 12 December:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50229318

[Jezza]

Latest polling

YouGov/The Times (Oct 29-30)
- Conservative = 36%
- Labour = 21%
- Lib Dems = 18%
- Brexit = 13%
- Green = 6%
- SNP = 3%

Survation/Daily Mail (Oct 29-30)
- Conservative = 34%
- Labour = 26%
- Lib Dems = 19%
- Brexit = 12%
- SNP = 4%
- Green = 1%
- UKIP = 1%
- Plaid Cymru = 1%

[David]

^ Interesting. In both cases, if we place the Lib Dems within a left bloc (and they are somewhat more likely to side with Labour this time around should they win balance of power), there's something close to a dead heat, with the right (Conservatives, Brexit Party and UKIP) narrowly in front in the YouGov poll (49-48) and the left (everyone else) narrowly in front in the Daily Mail one (51-47). Of course, it's very difficult to know how this will translate to seats, particularly given the UK's first-past-the-post system, but it's worth noting that at this point of the 2017 election campaign (which delivered a hung parliament and a very narrow majority for the Conservative–DUP alliance) the numbers were something like Conservatives 46, Labour 29, Lib Dems 10, UKIP 7, SNP 4 and Greens 3. That did narrow toward the end; the final tallies before the election were more like Conservatives 44, Labour 36, Lib Dems 8, UKIP 4, SNP 4 and Greens 3.

One can surmise that the newly established Brexit Party has drawn support from both the Conservatives and UKIP, while the Lib Dems have presumably gained ground from more centrist Labour voters (SNP and Plaid Cymru are holding steady, and the Greens are slightly down). Whatever the case, the right bloc doesn't seem to have substantially improved from its position last time, and Johnson's government may be in some peril if Conservative and Brexit Party voters don't vote tactically.

[Wokko]

Boris has declined to do any deals with Farage so Brexit will field candidates in all seats, well he's told Boris to drop the deal or he will and Boris won't drop the deal. While BXP do draw a lot of support from working class 'leave' Labour voters, it's Conservative seats where they could get a lot of votes and play wrecker for the Tories.

They were the largest party at the EU elections so not outside the realm of possibility they win a few seats and end up in a similar power position to the DUP.

[pietillidie]

A legitimate critique of one major EU policy:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/03/world/europe/eu-farm-subsidy-hungary.html

Not that peripheral rump state England will be able to influence it, of course.

[Wokko]

They said it'd never happen, they're out!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLf4J81ja067yaIIkXXOQOY2E9jrFF6f8y&v=W_QuFx_emng

[stui magpie]

Sort of anti climactic after all the angst and bullshit over such a long period

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/brexit-finally-happens-united-kingdom-leaves-european-union-boris-johnson-2020-1

I guess now the fun really starts.

[Jezza]

After two General Elections and three Prime Ministers it's finally done.

[Pies4shaw]

No, it isn’t. They’ve just started.

[pietillidie]

Imagine, billions of dollars of damage to the economy and the actual job hasn't even started yet. Next, years of negotiation led by a limpid tool who hasn't got the stamina to butter a piece of toast.

Sheer genius.

[Wokko]

Nothing really to do with Brexit which appears to be chugging along fine considering the lack of doomsayers lately.

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-and-girlfriend-carrie-symonds-expecting-first-baby-together-and-get-engaged-11945648

Congratulations to BoJo and his new Mrs. First PM to get married in office in 250 years.

[Pies4shaw]

Actually, it's only 198 (Robert Jenkinson's first wife died while he was in office in 1821 and he remarried the following year). Anyway, BJ and his fiancee are the first unmarried couple ever to live (officially, at least) at Number 10.

Is he finally divorced, yet, from Marina Wheeler? Otherwise, BJ has a big chance at first bigamist in office, as well.

[Wokko]

[pietillidie]

[pietillidie]

This would be hilarious it it weren't so pathetic and I didn't live here:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-51706802