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Mayday, May Day or D-Day for May: Brexit Update

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:15 am
Post subject: Mayday, May Day or D-Day for May: Brexit UpdateReply with quote

I know there are probably dozens of threads on Brexit, but it's worth revisiting the topic afresh given the shenanigans over the Commons vote.

The latest sees May trying to postpone the vote on her deal: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46509288

While upsetting everybody, May has probably played the best card she has, i.e., she has bought time to allow the farce of a hard Brexit to show its face. During this time, four options have been canvassed directly and indirectly: (1) a highly-destabilising and chaotic exit, (2) a sub-optimal, vague but managed exit, (3) a gamble on a malingerer like Johnson (or the barely more palatable Corbyn), or (4) a second referendum.

One hopeful theory is that these tiresome theatrics will eventually 'force' both parties to declare a second referendum 'a regrettable necessity'. May heading back to the EU to seek concessions, punctuated by the Festive Season, would enable a second referendum to gain sufficient momentum, while the ECJ cleared the way for the cancelling of Article 50 unilaterally by the UK this morning: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46481643 .

This mutual bungling will be cast as a grand conspiracy by the far left and far right, but in reality it's the outcome of neither party having the courage to lead with hard truths about what was a ridiculous, nonsensical referendum.

Meanwhile, Johnson et al. and Corbyn hover like vultures hoping the mess breaks favourably, the former trying to wrangle the numbers to topple May, the latter hoping for a general election. I'm not up with the finer points of parliamentary proceedings, but presumably this would take place through a no confidence vote. An election seems unlikely to me as neither party has the courage to tell the truth about the absurdity of the referendum, so they lack a decisive position on Brexit to take to into a campaign. However, another referendum would allow them to reset ahead of an election.

Then again, angry people wrecking things is fashionable and Brexiters are as angry as ever, so PM Johnson might be visiting Australia before too long, tooting a red horn with sauce on his tie and his old fella hanging out his fly.

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:14 am
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People scoff at the idea of a second referendum and call it undemocratic a principle of lets hold as many referenda as we can until we get the result we want. But I think its pretty clear by now that a majority of voters have seen the promises of the Leave campaign go up in smoke, have recognised how catastrophic the last few years have been and would now want to stay in the EU. And whats the point of a referendum if not to reflect the will of the public? In my view, if it can somehow be indicated through successive opinion polls, a petition or so on that the majority of British people now want to Remain and that a majority want another chance to vote, a second referendum is the correct and perfectly democratic thing to do. And its a matter of urgency, because the national interest is clearly being harmed at the moment.
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thesoretoothsayer 



Joined: 26 Apr 2017


PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:15 am
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I think you've just explained to me why the Americans won't give up their guns.
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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:25 pm
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^

LOL.

I take David's point about how people voted potentially without being aware of the consequences and are now having conniptions, but I dislike the idea of doing another refereundum. (and I have no view on whether they should leave the EU or stay. DILLIGAF basically)

So you've got this large swell of popular opinion to stay. What if you do a second referendum, get a majority vote to stay, and then get a massive uprising of those who want to go?

Is the agenda being driven by the squeaky wheel or the genuine majority?

It was never a relatively simple issue like same sex marriage, there's a lot of economics involved which most people would have NFI about but maybe starting to get a clue, and if it was presented as such then the people presenting the cases need to be administered a cactus suppository.

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swoop42 Virgo

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Joined: 02 Aug 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:49 pm
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They made the mistake of allowing just a simple minority to decide the matter when a leave vote of around 65% should have been required to enact such a substantial reform.

In the end a leave vote of 51.89% wasn't decisive enough and if the referendum was held again then I'd be surprised if the stay vote didn't win out this time around with a more informed public.

If May can't please enough people in her own party let alone that of the opposition then a 2nd referendum appears required that I'm sure a majority of politicians secretly hope will see the stay vote victorious.

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David Libra

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:12 pm
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You can see all the post-referendum polls here (keep an eye on the rightmost notes column, as many polls are limited in scope):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Post-referendum_polling

Consistent pattern seems to lean towards Remain, particularly since the 2017 election, but the numbers arent necessarily decisive on the was Brexit a mistake poll, the yes vote wins nearly every time but nonetheless fails to crack the 50% mark, which suggests that a second referendum would be at least close and that we cant necessarily presume that the initial result would be overturned.

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Culprit Cancer



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:29 am
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JK Rowling is my reference to Brexit these day's and one tweet was brilliant.
Quote:
My mentions have taught me that Brexit is like Trumps wall. For its devoted fans it has a symbolic value totally unrelated to its workability, its true cost or the glaring self-interest of its proposers, whereas non-believers see nothing but a deranged and costly vanity project.
[/i]
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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:14 am
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^ Cant argue with that.
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Wokko Pisces

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Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:26 am
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https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1072621410445656064

Word is that the 48 letters have been received and a No confidence vote is incoming. Theresa May is a goner (unless they're just rumours).

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:03 pm
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thesoretoothsayer wrote:
I think you've just explained to me why the Americans won't give up their guns.


Not sure if a majority would be as you describe.

On a per voting capita basis I think the NRA lot would lose out in a big way.

However if it is done on a state by state basis then that allows the NRA and other far right nutters to have influence and power way beyond their actual numbers

(see Trump) well only if you really want to

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:04 pm
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Culprit wrote:
JK Rowling is my reference to Brexit these day's and one tweet was brilliant.
Quote:
My mentions have taught me that Brexit is like Trumps wall. For its devoted fans it has a symbolic value totally unrelated to its workability, its true cost or the glaring self-interest of its proposers, whereas non-believers see nothing but a deranged and costly vanity project.
[/i]


Laughing

That wasn't in Harry Potter.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 06 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:07 pm
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Wokko wrote:
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1072621410445656064

Word is that the 48 letters have been received and a No confidence vote is incoming. Theresa May is a goner (unless they're just rumours).

Here's hoping. The most useless British PM in a long time.

Hopefully the Tories actually install a proper Brexiteer as leader as they should have done after the 2016 referendum.

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David Libra

Rose with a violent heart


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:13 pm
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Wokko wrote:
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1072621410445656064

Word is that the 48 letters have been received and a No confidence vote is incoming. Theresa May is a goner (unless they're just rumours).


It should be noted though that, if they have reached (or soon do) the requisite threshold of 48 letters to trigger a no-confidence motion, that's still only 15% of party MPs. Of course it goes without saying that there will be MPs (particularly high-ranking ones) who haven't written letters but will vote against her on the day, but it's not necessarily a foregone conclusion that they'll get the further 113 votes needed to actually win the motion and if they don't, then May gets to stay in charge for another year without challenge. As Peter Dutton learnt recently, momentum isn't always enough.

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stui magpie 

Oh the Premiership's a cakewalk


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:27 pm
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watt price tully wrote:
thesoretoothsayer wrote:
I think you've just explained to me why the Americans won't give up their guns.


Not sure if a majority would be as you describe.

On a per voting capita basis I think the NRA lot would lose out in a big way.

However if it is done on a state by state basis then that allows the NRA and other far right nutters to have influence and power way beyond their actual numbers

(see Trump) well only if you really want to


Even on a popular vote, it would absolutely depend on the question. The coastal lefties would be more than happy to rid the mid west of their rifles etc, but ask them to give up their handguns, different argument.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:39 pm
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Jezza wrote:
Wokko wrote:
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1072621410445656064

Word is that the 48 letters have been received and a No confidence vote is incoming. Theresa May is a goner (unless they're just rumours).

Here's hoping. The most useless British PM in a long time.

Hopefully the Tories actually install a proper Brexiteer as leader as they should have done after the 2016 referendum.


It's happening this evening, UK time. But the mustering up of these 48 votes does not mean she's a goner; it could even lead to her being locked in more securely, especially given how fractured the party is.

Are you familiar with the assortment of 'proper' Brexiteers? Do you know what their Brexit transition plans and platforms of governance entail? You would want the best manager in the country to implement the most complex and poorly comprehended geopolitical endeavour in decades. The agreement is the easy part of Brexit; a Brexiteer with poor support will not only have to deal with the timing of Article 50 and re-work the agreement, but then manage what follows.

By god David Cameron and the Austerity Vampire have a lot to answer for.

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Last edited by pietillidie on Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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