 |
|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
| Post subject: |  |
|
First Dog On The Moon always gets it right, wpt.
| David wrote: | I only ever take advice on polls from Kevin Bonham. Long story short: the apparent move towards the government in this poll could be significant, but Fairfax/Ipsos is notoriously variable, and we'll probably need another Newspoll to confirm that this is more than an outlier result.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/02/poll-roundup-mixed-start-to-year-for.html
| Quote: | The 51-49 to Labor Ipsos released tonight deserves some immediate comment. The main things to know about Ipsos are (i) that the pollster is volatile compared to the other significant pollsters, (ii) that the pollster's primary votes have a skew towards the Greens and, to a lesser degree, generic Others. Ipsos' 2PPs don't skew to one side or the other, but they are bouncy.
Also, the Coalition was a bit lucky to get 49% off this set of primaries (Coalition 38 Labor 33 Green 13) - this would normally come out to 48.4 by last-election preferences, and I aggregated it at 48.6. As a result my aggregate has so far dropped seven tenths of a point to 53.0 by last-election preferences, or 52.4 with the One Nation adjustment. However, it's possible that the events of the last week have made a big difference and my aggregate is being conservative. Or it's possible that Ipsos is being volatile again. When there is a single poll that differs from the rest and there is an obvious event that may have caused it, an aggregate cannot say whether the poll is right or not - and in the case of Ipsos it's much more difficult to infer anything than it would be if we saw a three-point jump in Newspoll.
Looking at the record of Ipsos so far this term, there have been seven cases prior to this one of it being a point or more away from my aggregate even after including it. In two of these Ipsos ran ahead of changes in other polls generally, while in four of these the movement implied by Ipsos never showed up in other polling, suggesting that Ipsos was simply being bouncy. The cases where Ipsos was predictive include two of the three cases it stuck out on the Coalition's side (narrowings in April and September 2018) but no case where it stuck out on Labor's side. Make of that what you will. The seventh case was inconclusive: an apparent massive outlier in Labor's favour just before Prime Minister Turnbull was removed. (I suspect it was partly right and partly overreacting in that case.)
The Ipsos result was also somewhat contradicted by a Queensland-only federal Galaxy which had very strong numbers for Labor (52-48, a 6.1% improvement on the 2016 election, though Labor does have a history of underperforming in Queensland compared to lead-up polling.) |
|
Meanwhile: https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/coalition-still-trails-labor-in-latest-newspoll-ng-b881100983z
Looks like it was a dead cat bounce (or else, if there was no actual bounce from the decedent feline, Ipsos is just unreliable).
It's also very sad to see the One Notion vote slipping across the country.
Last edited by Pies4shaw on Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:48 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
|
|
 |
David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
| Post subject: | |
|
^ At the risk of being prosaic about this, if you wanted to get a poll that produced a margin of error of no more than 1% at a 99% confidence level, you'd need a (truly) random survey of over 16,500 people for an electorate that has 16,000,000 registered voters (give or take).
Doing the polling properly has two downsides, of course: first, it's very expensive to interview 16,500 people (and, if you do it every month, people are going to stop playing altogether); secondly, if you do it so that it is accurate, the media would lose the opportunity to cogitate endlessly upon the poll result. It's much more exciting to have unreliable figures and then speculate about whether they have any predictive force than to do a proper poll.
The upside of the maths, however, is that there's no need to hold a general election - a (truly) random selection of under 20,000 of us would do the job just about as well and save us all a lot of bother (and sausage money).
Here's a useful article in the US context from a couple of years back that explains the difficulties with polling, in a reasonably engaging and straightforward way: https://hbr.org/2016/08/how-todays-political-polling-works |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
While I agree with that, I think it's fair to say that, in the wake of the last US election results and the pollsters' catastrophic failure to accurately predict it, there are a lot of reasonable questions about how seriously we should be taking any of these. This claim in the article, for instance, is a bit eyebrow-raising now – even if it’s true in theory, what does it say about how bad the other polls were that they needed an overrepresentation of unemployed men to even partially correct their inaccuracies?
| Quote: | | Recent studies show that even after weighting, online polls tend to overrepresent men and the unemployed, perhaps because online surveys generally require people to opt in, and unemployed men may be more motivated to share their views and more likely to have the time to do the surveys. This may help explain why Donald Trump seems to do better in online polls than in telephone polls. |
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace
Last edited by David on Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:36 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
|
|
|
HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| Right now? What does "this" refer to? |
|
|
|
|
Culprit 
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
|
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
^ Yeah, they must feel it’s a lost cause now. Maybe there’s a landslide coming?
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| It's all of Malcolm's moderates leaving. Not sorry to see the back of any of these Liberals in name only. Must've thrown in too hard behind Turnbull and know they're going to (probably) opposition back benches post election. |
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
I guess that makes sense – one can’t imagine Morrison would last long after an election loss, and Dutton would be a fair chance of successfully challenging for the leadership, winning and installing a right-wing shadow cabinet (if he can actually win his seat, which is no certainty).
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
If the Libs lose all the moderates and go full on right wing, the only thing preventing Labor from holding power for a long time, is labor
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
|
| Post subject: | |
|
| That's pretty much Labor's MO. Only Hawke has managed to avoid it. |
|
|
|
|
stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
|
| Post subject: | |
|
^
Hawke managed to do something that couldn't be done now, he bought the unions to heel publicly while increasing their influence behind the scenes, while at the same time Keating bought in much needed economic reforms.
Compared to either Hawke or Keating, Little Bill is a pale shadow. They'll self destruct under him, it's only a matter of how long, how much damage they do and what form the Libs are in to take advantage of it.
I'd really just like a government that has some ideals, whatever they may be, and is prepare to govern to those and show leadership instead of spending the whole term trying to ensure they win the next election
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
|
|
|
|
Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
|
|
|
|
|
David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
|
| Post subject: | |
|
The Titanic is well and truly vertical at this point.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
|
|
|
|
Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
|
| Post subject: | |
|
They're floundering about too, can't decide on being conservative or centrist. They've been a visionless party since Turnbull came in and they still don't know what they stand for.
It's time to put them out of their misery, let them find themselves again and come back in a term or two once Labor has sunk the economy and opened the boat people floodgates again. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum
|
|
The Rules
FAQ
Usergroups
Calendar
Search
Log in
Register
