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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda
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Culprit wrote: | In saying that I would suggest the Liberals will join the ALP in voting in amendments to the preference system to kill off the pop up parties. |
I hope so, as it’s probably the only way that the legislation will get through (Greens will vote in favour, as will Fiona Patten if she gets in, but that probably won’t be enough without both major parties on board.) _________________ All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Pies4shaw wrote: | Assuming that is right and giving Ripon to the Libs, the numbers would be ALP 55, LNP 27, Greens 3 and Independents 3.
The LNP will need to gain 18 seats at the 2022 election to govern without minor parties. There are other ways to cut the figures, of course, but the following looks to me to be a reasonable estimate of the present position.
Assuming they can recover all 3 seats held by independents (essentially as National Party seats), they will need on present percentages (which, of course, will change with a redistribution before the next election) to achieve a uniform (or equivalent) 7% swing across the board to take at least a further 14 seats directly from the ALP (it is almost inconceivable that they can take either of Brunswick or Melbourne without a coup), then take either Prahran from the Greens or Eltham from the ALP as well (both are on a 7.2% margin). The Nats 6 seats look safe (present margins are between 12.6% and 24%). On the other hand, the Libs hold 9 seats by 1.7% or less and, as things stand, none by more than 7.3%. By contrast, the ALP holds 40 seats by at least 8.5%.
Thus, although the Liberal vote probably bottomed-out at this election, they wouldn't want a further 2% slide - or they could easily be cut to just 12 seats in the Assembly from 2022. |
Just an update - the VEC completed preference distribution for Ripon with the ALP 31 votes ahead. There is “further scrutiny of first preference ballot papers and informal ballot papers” in that electoral district scheduled for today. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda
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Worth keeping an eye on Melton. The Labor candidate, Stephen McGhie, claimed victory on election night with a 55%–45% two-party-preferred majority over the Liberals, and the newspapers haven't talked about the seat since, but there's been some suggestion from polling-booth-watchers that independent Ian Birchall – who finished third with only 10.5% of the vote – could, improbably, come from the clouds and win the seat.
How's that possible? Melton's an unusual seat in that it had six different independents running, and between them they managed to get over 35% of the primary vote (slightly more than the Labor candidate, in fact, who got 34.9%). There's a suggestion that all of them preferenced Birchall, who ran on a campaign to get a hospital built in the area, quite highly on their how-to-vote cards. It may yet be a long shot, and it seems like nobody has been able to point to a seat ever having been won with such a low primary vote, but there remains a serious possibility that, with independent preferences, Birchall could leapfrog the Liberal candidate (on 18.6%) into second place. If that happens, all bets are off – as it's quite likely that most Liberal voters would have preferenced him higher than the Labor candidate. Maybe it'll all come to nothing, but it'll be interesting to see what comes to pass.
https://twitter.com/rfc60/status/1070441284140064768 _________________ All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda
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^ It all did come to nothing, but there wasn't much in it! Birchall only missed out on making the top two by 700 votes. _________________ All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Tannin
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006 Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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Rippon! You bloody ripper! _________________ �Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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It was barely worth posting once - it certainly didn’t warrant repetition. Sorry. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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The VEC has completed its recount in Ripon. The Libs won by 15 votes. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005 Location: In flagrante delicto
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^
You'd think a man of your means could afford a decent internet connection. _________________ Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Pardon, Stui? You’re pixelating, here. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005 Location: In flagrante delicto
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harkening back to your uni days where it would take 15 minutes to download a picture of a topless woman? _________________ Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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When I was at uni, the first time, there was no internet. When I went the second time, there was still no internet. When I went the third time, there was just barely internet - the search engine was something called Trumpeter Winsock (?) (which has gone the way of the dodo) and there were no pictures (of anything much) to download. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005 Location: In flagrante delicto
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You may be older than me. I did computer coding in yr 11 in 1982, but didn't get to play on one that did anything useful until a long time after _________________ Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Bruce Gonsalves
Joined: 05 Jul 2012
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Geeze in 1981 we were feeding all these marked cards, like tattslotto cards into some massive thing someone called a computer. Still not sure what it did!
Data Processing was the name of the subject. |
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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Tannin wrote: | Rippon! You bloody ripper! |
Nice to see you get excited for a Liberal win.
STALEY, Louise LIBERAL 20035 50.02%
DE SANTIS, Sarah LABOR PARTY 20020 49.98% |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Bruce Gonsalves wrote: | Geeze in 1981 we were feeding all these marked cards, like tattslotto cards into some massive thing someone called a computer. Still not sure what it did!
Data Processing was the name of the subject. |
Yes. There was an EDP Division full of “data operators”. Punch cards and overnight batch runs. We thought it was the new world. |
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