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Vic State Election

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:53 am
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Culprit wrote:
In saying that I would suggest the Liberals will join the ALP in voting in amendments to the preference system to kill off the pop up parties.


I hope so, as it’s probably the only way that the legislation will get through (Greens will vote in favour, as will Fiona Patten if she gets in, but that probably won’t be enough without both major parties on board.)

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:25 am
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Pies4shaw wrote:
Assuming that is right and giving Ripon to the Libs, the numbers would be ALP 55, LNP 27, Greens 3 and Independents 3.

The LNP will need to gain 18 seats at the 2022 election to govern without minor parties. There are other ways to cut the figures, of course, but the following looks to me to be a reasonable estimate of the present position.
Assuming they can recover all 3 seats held by independents (essentially as National Party seats), they will need on present percentages (which, of course, will change with a redistribution before the next election) to achieve a uniform (or equivalent) 7% swing across the board to take at least a further 14 seats directly from the ALP (it is almost inconceivable that they can take either of Brunswick or Melbourne without a coup), then take either Prahran from the Greens or Eltham from the ALP as well (both are on a 7.2% margin). The Nats 6 seats look safe (present margins are between 12.6% and 24%). On the other hand, the Libs hold 9 seats by 1.7% or less and, as things stand, none by more than 7.3%. By contrast, the ALP holds 40 seats by at least 8.5%.

Thus, although the Liberal vote probably bottomed-out at this election, they wouldn't want a further 2% slide - or they could easily be cut to just 12 seats in the Assembly from 2022.

Just an update - the VEC completed preference distribution for Ripon with the ALP 31 votes ahead. There is “further scrutiny of first preference ballot papers and informal ballot papers” in that electoral district scheduled for today.
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:51 am
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Worth keeping an eye on Melton. The Labor candidate, Stephen McGhie, claimed victory on election night with a 55%–45% two-party-preferred majority over the Liberals, and the newspapers haven't talked about the seat since, but there's been some suggestion from polling-booth-watchers that independent Ian Birchall – who finished third with only 10.5% of the vote – could, improbably, come from the clouds and win the seat.

How's that possible? Melton's an unusual seat in that it had six different independents running, and between them they managed to get over 35% of the primary vote (slightly more than the Labor candidate, in fact, who got 34.9%). There's a suggestion that all of them preferenced Birchall, who ran on a campaign to get a hospital built in the area, quite highly on their how-to-vote cards. It may yet be a long shot, and it seems like nobody has been able to point to a seat ever having been won with such a low primary vote, but there remains a serious possibility that, with independent preferences, Birchall could leapfrog the Liberal candidate (on 18.6%) into second place. If that happens, all bets are off – as it's quite likely that most Liberal voters would have preferenced him higher than the Labor candidate. Maybe it'll all come to nothing, but it'll be interesting to see what comes to pass.

https://twitter.com/rfc60/status/1070441284140064768

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:01 pm
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^ It all did come to nothing, but there wasn't much in it! Birchall only missed out on making the top two by 700 votes.
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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:18 pm
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Rippon! You bloody ripper!
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:39 am
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It was barely worth posting once - it certainly didn’t warrant repetition. Sorry.
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:39 am
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The VEC has completed its recount in Ripon. The Libs won by 15 votes.
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:43 pm
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^

You'd think a man of your means could afford a decent internet connection. Wink

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:12 pm
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Pardon, Stui? You’re pixelating, here.
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:21 pm
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Laughing

harkening back to your uni days where it would take 15 minutes to download a picture of a topless woman? Wink

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:36 pm
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When I was at uni, the first time, there was no internet. When I went the second time, there was still no internet. When I went the third time, there was just barely internet - the search engine was something called Trumpeter Winsock (?) (which has gone the way of the dodo) and there were no pictures (of anything much) to download.
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:19 pm
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You may be older than me. I did computer coding in yr 11 in 1982, but didn't get to play on one that did anything useful until a long time after
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Bruce Gonsalves Gemini



Joined: 05 Jul 2012


PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:08 pm
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Geeze in 1981 we were feeding all these marked cards, like tattslotto cards into some massive thing someone called a computer. Still not sure what it did!

Data Processing was the name of the subject.
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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005


PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:12 pm
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Tannin wrote:
Rippon! You bloody ripper!


Nice to see you get excited for a Liberal win.


STALEY, Louise LIBERAL 20035 50.02%
DE SANTIS, Sarah LABOR PARTY 20020 49.98%
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:45 pm
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Bruce Gonsalves wrote:
Geeze in 1981 we were feeding all these marked cards, like tattslotto cards into some massive thing someone called a computer. Still not sure what it did!

Data Processing was the name of the subject.

Yes. There was an EDP Division full of “data operators”. Punch cards and overnight batch runs. We thought it was the new world.
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