Vic State Election
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| David wrote: | | ^ I'll be celebrating if the Greens get up there, but I'm not sure of how much of a general sign of progress it would be their vote went backwards big time this election, and they might yet end up with only one seat in each house. Personally, I'd like to see them take the entirety of inner-city Melbourne in future elections, but I'm not sure how likely that is now we may have seen their peak come and go. |
Did their vote go "backwards big time" in their viable Assembly contests, though? The Greens only held two Assembly Seats after the 2014 election, Prahran (by a whisker - although the margin over the second-placed Liberals was substantial, the real fight - with the ALP was decided by a handful of votes - whichever of them ended second flipped into first after preferences - that will plainly happen again) and Melbourne. It looks reasonably likely that they will hold both of those and gain Brunswick on the most recent figures published by the VEC.
In Brunswick, the Greens' primary vote is up (from 39.6% to 40.1%). The ALP primary vote is also up about half a percent. The Liberal primary vote has almost halved. At present, the Greens' two-party preferred vote is up by 2.5% and they look likely to win.
In Melbourne, Ellen Sandell's primary vote is down from 41.4% to 39.9% - but that was on the back of an 8.9% swing against the ALP in that electorate at the 2014 election. Putting aside the triumphalist, winner-takes-all view of politics (that lacks any predictive capability at all), it was going to be hard for that change to be maintained, especially in circumstances where the ALP experienced a generally large swing to it across the city. As it happens, the Liberal primary vote has dropped from 24.1% to 15.9%. Given a changing world, in which the Greens are not necessarily the "middle" party to which a Liberal protest vote is attracted, it is not surprising that the ALP has benefited from some of the Liberal leakage.
The Greens got 36.3% of the primary vote in Northcote in 2014 (trailing the ALP by 1,800 primary votes) and lost to the ALP by nearly 5,000 votes on the two-party preferred. The VEC stats show them, as we speak, up by 2.5% with 38.6% of the primary vote, trailing the ALP by about 1,600 on primaries - but the two-party preferred gap is much closer (about 1,500 votes) this time. In the 2017 by-election, the Greens won with an 11.6% swing against the ALP on the two-party preferred vote. Looking at it from the 2014 to 2018 general elections, the ALP held the seat by a 12% margin in 2014 (after suffering a 4.2% swing to the Greens) and its margin is now more than halved. I think the by-election was probably something of an anomaly.
In Prahran, the Greens' primary vote is up from 24.8% to 28%. The ALP has also improved by about 3.2% - it looks like they have both benefited from the collapse of the Liberal primary vote (down from 44.8% to 35.5%). |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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^ Fair points! I guess it's really the legislative council where they've struggled most, and that's more a result of group ticket arrangements than any significant collapse in their actual legislative council vote. Hard for them to take too much joy from this election, still, as even a small increase in votes may suggest a substantial loss of momentum.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| thesoretoothsayer wrote: | | Quote: | | It sounds so anachronistic in 2018 to ask questions like: I hope they have the ability to do their job as though men automatically have the ability to do their jobs... |
This is absolutely correct.
However, when you implement quotas such questions are always going to be asked.
Say a primary school is hiring 4 teachers and they get 200 female and 6 male applicants. If the principal hires 2 women and 2 men, people are naturally going to ask if those men were really amongst the best applicants. |
I agree with Tannin's response, however just as an aside, RMIT recently interviewed for a number of Vice Chancellor Research Fellows. The idea is they get a 4 year fixed term contract to undertake research and are assigned to a school or college that supports their specialty with the aim, after the contract, they move into teaching with research being a side gig. They advertised those roles as for females only with the intent of boosting female numbers in STEM areas.
The also advertised for post doctoral research fellows which were open to anyone but with a stated agenda that if 2 candidates were rated equal, the female would get the gig over the male.
I sat in on some of the interviews, fair and thorough process that I understood very little of.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| Tell me a story. I can see where you are coming from. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| stui magpie wrote: | ...
I agree with Tannin's response, however just as an aside, RMIT recently interviewed for a number of Vice Chancellor Research Fellows. The idea is they get a 4 year fixed term contract to undertake research and are assigned to a school or college that supports their specialty with the aim, after the contract, they move into teaching with research being a side gig. They advertised those roles as for females only with the intent of boosting female numbers in STEM areas.
The also advertised for post doctoral research fellows which were open to anyone but with a stated agenda that if 2 candidates were rated equal, the female would get the gig over the male.
... |
Move into teaching at that assigned school or college? At high-school level, I assume. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Sorry, University speak.
The University is the whole shebang.
The teaching areas are organisationally (not geographically) divided into colleges which are groupings of like subjects. Colleges are (in this example):
Science, engineering, health
Business
Design and social context
Within the colleges, again organisationally, it's divided into schools.
This is about organisational management, not physical schools
You have a deputy pro vice chancellor heading up a college and a dean for a school.
I'm still getting my head around it
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Ah, yes; that makes sense. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| David wrote: | | ^ Fair points! I guess it's really the legislative council where they've struggled most, and that's more a result of group ticket arrangements than any significant collapse in their actual legislative council vote. Hard for them to take too much joy from this election, still, as even a small increase in votes may suggest a substantial loss of momentum. |
Yes, I deliberately didnt look at the Council because I dont understand what the votes mean, yet, as patterns. I think that needs to be done after the dust has settled. I suspect, at present and provisionally, that their failure to vet candidates adequately probably cost them votes across the board, in the same way (but not the same extent) that Guys membership of the same party as the Federal Duttzis cost the Libs votes. |
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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We should know the final results of the Victorian Lower house by Saturday night or Sunday.
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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thesoretoothsayer
Joined: 26 Apr 2017
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Culprit 
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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Michael Kroger has email all State Liberal Members that they have sold 104 Exhibition Street. This is after saying they shouldn't. Sold the farm.
Last edited by Culprit on Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:22 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Thats just the pre-game entertainment. Wait until they get serious. |
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Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Kroger has quit. |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | Kroger has quit. |
Bummer
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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