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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| Post subject: Numbing numbers for numpties: Article by G Baum |  |
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Good article on numbers albeit way too short with a reference to the Pies by the wonderful Greg Baum
Numbing numbers for numpties
Soon after a Red Sox outfielder had gloved a quite nice rolling catch in the World Series this week, a commentator told us he had been a 17 per cent chance to take it. It jarred like a mishit. Three thoughts leapt nimbly to mind. One was: bullshit. He had a mitt; all he had to do was get to it to take it. The next was: how do you make a calculation like that anyway? The third was: why?......
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/numbing-numbers-for-numpties-20181026-p50c7a.html
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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"Three thoughts leapt nimbly to mind":
1. When did Fairfax start printing "bullsh**" uncensored? (A. Probably a long, long time ago.)
2. When did Baum start putting words like "bullsh**" and "f***" (okay, it's not that f-word) in his articles? (Could this be the first time?)
3. Is he serious when he writes: "There is even a figure on my screen for how probable it is that you read to the end of this column"?
This is not one of Baum's better efforts. |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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Were all entitled to our opinions.
I quite liked what he had to say. The primacy of stats can lead to a dimunition of enjoyment and the bleeding obvious. I particularly liked the reference to Gerard Whatelys comments about the delisting of Menzel.
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Albert Parker
Joined: 13 Dec 2012
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I like the sentiment of it.
By contrast Mark Robinson lamely quoting pressure scores all of the time.
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One team, one dream - the Pies and this year's premiership |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| watt price tully wrote: | Were all entitled to our opinions.
... |
I think he could have argued his case far more cogently.
e.g. talk of "ScoMo" is utterly irrelevant and confused. |
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MatthewBoydFanClub
Joined: 12 Feb 2007
Location: Elwood
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I thought the article was a good one. Too often we create arguments out of statistics. You need to trust your gut feel. The Sheed goal was a killer. The next play had to be down our end. It wasnt. That was enough to say we were gone. Menzel is an interesting one because he averages a couple of goals a game which is crucial in a low scoring game. However the Geelong forward line doesnt function with Menzel in it when the opposition apply defensive pressure.
I remember a VFL game at the quarter time huddle when the coach (current Collingwood assistant coach) had a go at a certain player for a substandard game. The player wanted to argue that his game had been ok. The coach grabbed the stat sheet to point out what the player was doing wrong. The stat sheet doesnt lie but you need to be careful the way you use it. Its mainly for the professionals, not amateurs like us. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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Another example:
"There probably was a figure attached to Sheed's kick, and a graphic..."
"Probably", Greg?? Was there or wasn't there? (I haven't seen the broadcaster or media raise such a figure or graphic.) Otherwise, you are just inventing something that may not exist for the sake of criticizing it. Sloppy writing. |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| Another great article from Greg Baum, far and away this country's best sports writer. |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| K wrote: | Another example:
"There probably was a figure attached to Sheed's kick, and a graphic..."
"Probably", Greg?? Was there or wasn't there? (I haven't seen the broadcaster or media raise such a figure or graphic.) Otherwise, you are just inventing something that may not exist for the sake of criticizing it. Sloppy writing. |
K take a chill pill. Perhaps you can provide a statistical and quantitative analysis of Baums article?
No-one is saying this was Shakespeare: you'll miss the woods for the trees.
Relax and enjoy it  
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| watt price tully wrote: | ...
K take a chill pill.[1] Perhaps you can provide a statistical and quantitative analysis of Baums article?[2]
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[1] I am still recovering from GF trauma. I believe Scotch whiskey is more effective than a pill.
[2] Just to annoy him? I'd have to send it to him, then; I assume he's not a Nickster (or else he would have been safe, as part of a protected species).
I actually have wondered if he's lost the plot. I don't recall him writing like this 10 or 15 years ago. Maybe, he was more heavily edited in the past.
I already gave him the benefit of the doubt when I saw this article was filed under "baseball". It contains essentially no baseball, and if Greg knows anything about baseball he has chosen not to reveal it to us. I assume for his sake he was not actually asked to write a baseball article, but instead allowed to rant about anything.
Maybe Baum was bothered by an article his own newspaper ran (from WaPo) a few days before his:
Red Sox need to fix one key stat to beat Dodgers in World Series
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/red-sox-need-to-fix-one-key-stat-to-beat-dodgers-in-world-series-20181023-p50bbf.html
If I were writing about the Sox, of course, I would write about The Curse.
Last edited by K on Sat Oct 27, 2018 5:57 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| watt price tully wrote: | Were all entitled to our opinions.
I quite liked what he had to say. The primacy of stats can lead to a dimunition of enjoyment and the bleeding obvious. I particularly liked the reference to Gerard Whatelys comments about the delisting of Menzel. |
I liked it.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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88MPH
Joined: 14 Oct 2010
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A very shallow and confused piece by a journo who himself far too often falls into characterising sport as being something other than a physical pursuit.
As for the ScoMo reference, well, that just added to the incongruity.
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3KZ is football |
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piedys 
Heeeeeeere's Dyso!!!
Joined: 04 Sep 2003
Location: Resident Forum Psychopath since 2003
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| K wrote: | Another example:
"There probably was a figure attached to Sheed's kick, and a graphic..."
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Well I can tell you for a fact that there was a figure attached to Maynard when he attempted to get to the contest to spoil....
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M I L L A N E 4 2 forever |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| Post subject: Re: Numbing numbers for numpties: Article by G Baum | |
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| watt price tully wrote: | Good article on numbers albeit way too short with a reference to the Pies by the wonderful Greg Baum
Numbing numbers for numpties
Soon after a Red Sox outfielder had gloved a quite nice rolling catch in the World Series this week, a commentator told us he had been a 17 per cent chance to take it. It jarred like a mishit. Three thoughts leapt nimbly to mind. One was: bullshit. He had a mitt; all he had to do was get to it to take it. The next was: how do you make a calculation like that anyway? The third was: why?......
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/numbing-numbers-for-numpties-20181026-p50c7a.html |
because if you see that a player consistently makes plays that statistically very few people can make, it might be the best way to judge a player's fielding ability. Errors are a useless stat because of the way the stat works.
Just because people dont understand advanced analytics, doesnt mean they aren't useful. Red Sox just built one of the most dominant teams in history and none of the players in their lineup were household names until they were all assembled in Bean Town.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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