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Liberal leadership declared vacant.

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:00 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
Libs primary vote down 19%, Labor and Greens primary vote down 6% each.

So, while a number of people are clearly pissed off at the Libs for knifing Turnbull, there's also been a general rejection of the other 2 major parties.



Many Labor and Green voters were intelligent enough to vote tactically - indeed, they were quietly encouraged to do so prior to the poll. It was always going to be a three-horse race, and Sharma was always going to get the biggest primary vote.

This made the finishing order of the other two critical. Vote countng works like this:

1: they count all the primary votes.
2: they eliminate the lowest candidate and distribute his or her 2nd preferences between the remaining ones.
3: repeat (2) as often as necessary.

Eventually, they get down to the three main candidates. Once again, the one with the lowest number of votes is eliminated, and his or her preferences distributed. Think it through:

Suppose Phelps finises 3rd. She is eliminated. Roughly half her preferences go to Sharma, half to Murray. Sharma wins easily.

Now suppose Murray finises 3rd. He is eliminated. Roughly 100% of his preferences go to Phelps, practically none to Sharma. Phelps is elected.

For this reason, a lot of Green and Labor voters very sensibly put Phelps down as #1, to make sure of the really important thing, which is electing someone other than a Liberal.

The next election may well throw up lots of real candidates (i.e., people outside the Labor - Liberal - National machines) and with any luck quite a few will get elected. Let's hope so.

But the primary reason for the Sharma's defeat in this poll was nothing to do with him. It was payback from the people of this small part of Australia for the disgraceful conduct of the party he represents and Morrison leads. In other words, it wasn't Sharma, it was kharma.

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:39 pm
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Voters and Intelligent aren't usually 2 words that go together.
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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:44 pm
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Standing there in the Liberal-voting line, I can understand how you could believe that.
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:13 pm
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When were you standing in the Liberal voting line? Did you get a frying pan to the head on elections eve?
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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:19 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
Voters and Intelligent aren't usually 2 words that go together.


Exhibit 1 Pauline Hanson your worship

Exhibit 2 Malcolm Roberts

Exhibit 3 David Lleyonhjelm

Exhibit 4 ? David Anning your worship

I rest my case your worship: the affirmative support for Stuis contention

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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005


PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:22 pm
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watt price tully wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
Voters and Intelligent aren't usually 2 words that go together.


Exhibit 1 Pauline Hanson your worship

Exhibit 2 Malcolm Roberts

Exhibit 3 David Lleyonhjelm

Exhibit 4 ? David Anning your worship

I rest my case your worship: the affirmative support for Stuis contention


5. Sarah Hanson-Young

6. Tanya Plibersek

7. Bill Shorten

8. Derryn Hinch
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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:13 am
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stui magpie wrote:
When were you standing in the Liberal voting line? Did you get a frying pan to the head on elections eve?


There was a frypan used by the Libs but it was all serious self harm. We should find out in the scheme of things if it is fatal.

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:54 am
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It seems the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison LibGnats have been hiding / covering up the fact that they paid double what they should have for arms purchases from the French.

It just goes from bad to worse FFS

https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/22/coalition-suppressed-auditors-finding-that-13bn-thales-arms-deal-could-have-cost-half-with-us

What a miserable lot. The Lib / Gnats are involved in a huge coverup over a wait for it: $1.3 billion deal. They could have paid half.

The Auditor General has revealed this but the Government have hidden it with the Arms dealer wanting censorship of the details.

They dont deserve to be in Government.

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:04 am
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1.3 billion for a small factory in Bendigo exporting nothing and employing 400? Tick!

Less than half that much for the car manufacturing industry exporting lots and employing tens of thousands? Nope.

And they tout themselves as "good economic managers".

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:13 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
Interesting voter reaction.

Libs primary vote down 19%, Labor and Greens primary vote down 6% each.

The independent, Phelps, has 29% of the primary vote (Libs have 43%)

So, while a number of people are clearly pissed off at the Libs for knifing Turnbull, there's also been a general rejection of the other 2 major parties.

The next federal election could be a dogs breakfast.


My impression is that prominent centre/centre-left independents often eat up a lot of the Labor/Greens vote a clear case in point is South Australia, where Nick Xenophon's party has demolished support for both Labor and particularly the Greens.

The same is true for a more left-leaning independent candidate, Andrew Wilkie he took a then-safe Labor seat with a nearly 20% Greens primary vote in 2007 (not far behind where Adam Bandt was in Melbourne the same year) and has reduced Labor and the Greens' primary votes to 23% and 11% respectively. I think what you say is true to an extent (all major parties are bleeding votes to minors and independents), but 'anyone but the Liberals' seems to be a particular drawcard in its own right for anyone who isn't a rusted-on right-wing ideologue. On the flipside, I'm guessing you would see lower-than-expected Coalition and One Nation votes in Bob Katter's seat.

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:51 pm
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Wokko wrote:
They 'found' 281 more votes? That's higher than the recount margin. Is such a huge discrepancy in 1 booth normal?


Tasmanian psephologist Kevin Bonham (who follows elections in great detail and often relays reports from scrutineers during counts I highly recommend his blog) was reporting on this as early as Saturday night.

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/10/wentworth-live-majority-on-line-again.html

Quote:
I've had a look at booth results vs 2CPs in search of any possible errors. A couple of booths look really odd (see graph):

* Bellevue Hill (2290 votes)where Sharma polled 45%, Phelps polled 31.9% and 49.0% of preferences went to Phelps.

* Bondi Beach (3846 votes) where Sharma polled 28.9%, Phelps polled 39.0% and 57.4% of preferences went to Phelps.

There was nothing unusual about these booths except that the Greens did unusually well at Bondi Beach. Yet they are among Phelps' worst preference shares (supposedly). They are massive outliers.

The numbers would be on trend if Phelps was actually c.150 votes better in Bellevue Hill on the 2CP and c.300 votes better on Bondi Beach, which would increase her lead by c. 900 (52.58% 2CP not 51.92%), and leave Sharma needing c.69% of postals (which is very unrealistic). Unless, of course, there are errors in the other direction somewhere else!


It seems that his suspicions were correct in both cases: a large number of Greens votes had indeed been put in the wrong pile in each polling place just human error, and apparently not particularly uncommon (this is why votes are always recounted).

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Skids Cancer

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:05 pm
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Our electoral system is pretty strange isn't it.

The Sharma Bloke gets 32,000 votes and is beaten by the crazy old lady who gets 21,000.

Crazy one would say and then I read, a bloke got into parliament with only 19 votes Shocked

Funny how all the lefties on here were carrying on about Trump getting in with less than the majority vote... but it's ok this time round Laughing

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/19-people-got-this-bloke-a-200k-job/news-story/f8d8aaa83f0c2bcab53626455a3698d6

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:53 pm
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Actually, our system is not all that dissimilar to the one that allowed Trump to become president with fewer votes; in 1998, the Liberal Party was re-elected despite receiving fewer votes overall than Labor as a simple result of electoral divisions. That's a controversial system here too, but it makes a lot more sense in the Australian context because ours is a true two-stage process: that is to say, we're electing actual individual representatives who will sit in parliament, vote on policy (in theory) as individuals and, in turn, form government.

In the US electoral college system, on the other hand, electors are nothing more than powerless middle-men acting as nothing more than conduits for the election of a single leader, summoned into existence on election day and subsequently sent home to continue their lives as irrelevant nobodies (yes, they can choose to be 'faithless electors' and ignore the will of voters, but even that provision is just another weird and undemocratic quirk of a weird and undemocratic system). Nobody is actually voting for these people; they're just like couriers conveying a message from point A to point B.

In that context, it doesn't make a great deal of sense why a US president should be elected with a minority of the popular vote. But that's their system, and it's one that can in theory benefit either side (Republican gerrymandering aside); I don't necessarily see it as an issue that clearly requires reform, and in the case of Australia I'd probably support the status quo being maintained.

What you're talking about is completely different, though; this is simply preferential voting in action. While Sharma has received a much higher primary vote than Phelps, it's equally true that the majority of the Wentworth electorate preferred her to him once all of the other candidates had been eliminated. To me, that's a much more sophisticated system than a first-past-the-post arrangement like the one that is, again, in place in US elections: what we see there is an ongoing freezing out of minor parties and independents, as any vote for a candidate who aligns with your values risks splitting the vote and handing power to the major party candidate that you most detest. Maybe you'd prefer that system if you hate non-establishment figures and feel like only the major parties are properly qualified to govern, but it seems like a pretty terrible system to me.

(The dog's breakfast that used to be Senate voting was an altogether different matter, but I do think that the abolition of group tickets has had a generally positive impact. In Anning's case, the 19 votes are a bit of a red herring the real reason for his election was that his then-party, One Nation, received enough votes to gain more than two quotas in Queensland and were thus entitled to two Senators, one of whom was booted for being ineligible and replaced by Anning. It's far from uncommon for down-ticket candidates to receive a tiny share of the overall vote, as people generally follow their preferred party's how-to-vote card. So, long story short, no, it's not particularly weird or undemocratic that Anning is sitting in parliament, as weird and undemocratic as his own views seem to be!)

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Tannin Capricorn

Can't remember


Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania

PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:34 pm
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Excellent reply, David, but what to?

(Well, clearly to a pretty brain-dead claim by someone or other, but I don't see anything on this page that fits the bill.)

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watt price tully Scorpio



Joined: 15 May 2007


PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:07 pm
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Tannin wrote:
Excellent reply, David, but what to?

(Well, clearly to a pretty brain-dead claim by someone or other, but I don't see anything on this page that fits the bill.)


It was an excellent reply. However, this is mid - late high school stuff. 🙄

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