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Mighty Magpie's Offseason Trade and List Management Blog

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:05 pm
Post subject: Mighty Magpie's Offseason Trade and List Management BlogReply with quote

Last year's blog: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=82948&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=mighty+magpies&start=0

I will post updates during the remainder of the season and the offseason. I don't intend to try and keep up with the likes our expert draftee analysts such as Knightmare (now on ESPN) and Snoop, but I will focus more on the potential trade and list management issues.

Three points before I start:

1. My research is from the end of 2017 so this will not include any recent changes (although I am not aware of any other than the proposed changes to draft day).

2. The AFL does not have all the relevant rules in public documents so I have had to rely on media report more than I would like to.

3. I am fallible so if you think I have something wrong, please post with a link to the relevant source so that I can check and correct or update as required.

I'll kick off with a rules primer.

NGA and FS Rules

The bidding process is explained here: http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

One VERY IMPORTANT change that was made subsequently (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-18/fatherson-picks-could-put-pies-into-draft-points-deficit) is that a carryover points deficit does not automatically come off your first pick the following year - it comes off from the pick in the round on which the player was bid (and subsequent picks).

For example, if a player is bid on in the first round and you have insufficient points then the carryover points deficit will come off next year's first rounder, but if a player is bid on in the second round and you have insufficient points then the carryover points deficit will come off next year's second rounder (and subsequent picks if needed) and the first round pick is unaffected.

If you carry a points deficit over to the next year you are not allowed to participate in the bidding process that next year.

Trading of Draft Pick Rules

The starting point is that you can trade current year and next year picks.

The first restriction is that if you trade your future first then you cannot trade your future other picks and vice versa.

The second restriction applies from 2019 and was widely misreported early on leading to confusion. It is best described as a pre-condition to trading your future first rounder. From 2019 you can ONLY trade a future first round pick IF you have used two first round picks in the previous four years. Using a first round pick means making an actual pick or using the points from the pick towards a NGA or FS player. This second restriction only applies to trading your future first rounder and has no impact on your ability to trade your current year first rounder (which is subject only to the first restriction above).

Clubs are required to make a minimum of three selections (including rookie upgrades) in the national draft.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/every-afl-club-can-trade-its-future-firstround-pick-with-stricter-rules-to-take-effect-in-2019/news-story/62ac5fa26bb74712ec0a6e84e2e92888

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/geelong-can-again-trade-its-firstround-draft-pick-in-2018/news-story/82989f88db7d2425be27dae06077fab7

Some doubt has been cast on the HS interpretation, particularly as regards the ability to trade a current year 1st rounder in any event (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-02/trading-firstround-picks-afls-most-misunderstood-rule-explained ). The AFL should just release the written determination by Andrew Dillon which contains the actual rule.

Possible changes on horizon: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/clubs-want-to-look-deep-into-future-at-trade-time-20180607-p4zk2u.html

FA Rules

MATCHING OFFERS

A contract offer is matched if the football payments and ASAs are equivalent under the offer and the contract proposed by the player’s current club. To qualify as a matching offer, the player’s current club must make an offer on the same terms as the new offer tabled by the player including:
Contract length;
Base payments;
Total match payments;
Total ASA payments;
Total performance incentives based on AFL awards or honours, club best and fairest finish or games played (not including finals). Any incentives for team performance do not have to be matched. A player cannot table an offer to be matched for less than a two-year contract length.

COMPENSATION

A club that has a net loss of players transferring to/from other clubs as free agents in one transfer period is entitled to compensation via National Draft picks allocated by the AFL.
The compensation formula produces a points rating for players based on:
1. The new contract of the free agent;
2. The age of the free agent.
Draft picks are allocated to clubs based on the net total points for free agents lost and gained during the transfer period.

CBA: http://www.aflplayers.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/2017-2022-CBA.pdf

AFL Rule 17.6 Compensation
(a) Where in a particular year one or more Free Agent(s) under Rule 17.1(a) and Rule 17.2(b) and/or Restricted Free Agent(s) move from a Club’s Playing List (the first mentioned Club) to the Playing List of one or more other Clubs pursuant to the operation of Rule 17.4 or 17.5, the first mentioned Club may be entitled to a compensatory selection(s) in the next occurring National Draft Selection Meeting as follows:
(i) any compensatory selection(s) shall be allocated in accordance with guidelines determined by the AFL;
(ii) National Draft Selections will be allocated to one of five places:
(A) First round;
(B) End of First Round;
(C) Second Round;
(D) End of Second Round;
(E) Third Round;
(iii) a National Draft Selection allocated under Rule 1.6(a)(ii)(A), (C) or (E) shall be taken by the Club immediately after the Club’s selection in that Round (as determined by Rule 6.2(b));
(b) For the avoidance of doubt, any entitlement to a compensatory selection may be exchanged in accordance with Rule 9.

See this article also: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/the-afl-s-secret-formula-for-free-agency-compensation-20180221-p4z16j.html

Draft Picks (Indicative at this stage - I will update)

17, 48 (from Sydney), 53, 71, 89

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-30/indicative-draft-order-post-grand-final-edition

FA compensation picks will affect the starting order and FS/NGA bidding process will affect the order during the draft.

Live trading of draft picks: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-draft-2018-date-afl-to-make-history-and-hold-draft-across-two-days/news-story/53043cbf4547af211e9b3962186899c0

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2018-afl-draft-almanac.1188131/

Draft Combine

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-draft-combine-2018-full-list-of-invites-pick-1-top-10-prospects-jack-lukosius-sam-walsh/news-story/a9bd2642b86474360f0c5d870e9f0405

Key Dates

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-10/when-is-the-2018-afl-trade-period

When does the 2018 NAB AFL free agency and Trade Period start and finish?

Friday, 5 October: Restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period starts.
Monday, 8 October 10am: NAB AFL Trade Period starts.
Friday, 12 October 5pm: Close of restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period.
Monday, 15 October 2pm: AFL restricted free agency matching offer three-day period ends.
Wednesday, 17 October 8.30pm: NAB AFL Trade Period closes (for exchange of players).
Friday, 16 November 2pm: NAB AFL Trade Period closes (for exchange of selections only).

When is the 2018 NAB AFL Draft Combine?

Tuesday, 2 October – Friday 5 October: AFL Draft Combine.
Friday, 5 October: Victoria / NEAFL / Tasmania State Draft Combine.
Saturday, 13 October: South Australian Draft Combine.
Sunday, 14 October: West Australian Draft Combine.

When are the 2018 NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Drafts?

Thursday, 22 November 7pm – 9.30pm: NAB AFL Draft (Round One).
Friday, 23 November 10am – 1.30pm: NAB AFL Draft (Round Two onwards to conclusion).
Friday, 23 November 5pm: NAB AFL Pre-Season Draft and NAB AFL Rookie Draft.

How else can players switch clubs?

Delisted players become free agents and can join new clubs during any of the three NAB AFL delisted player free agency windows. Once clubs have delisted a player, they will receive no compensation should that player be signed by a new club.

The key dates for delisted free agents are as follows:
Wednesday, 31 October 2pm: List Lodgement (1)
Thursday, 1 November: AFL delisted player free agency period (1) starts
Thursday, 8 November: AFL delisted player free agency period (1) closes
Saturday, 10 November: AFL delisted player free agency period (2) starts
Friday, 16 November 5pm: AFL delisted player free agency period (2) closes
Friday, 23 November 1.30pm – 2.30pm: AFL delisted player free agency period (3)
Tuesday, 27 November 2pm: Final AFL club list lodgement

2018 Retirements and Delistings

http://www.afl.com.au/news/features/retirements-and-delistings

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/afl-list-changes-every-player-who-has-retired-or-been-delisted-in-2018/news-story/edfcb8470efd9dc61d0c50a89926e3e5

2018 Free Agents List

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-07-03/on-the-market-afl-free-agents-still-up-for-grabs

http://www.afl.com.au/news/trade/free-agency

Updated list 4/9/18: http://twitter.com/DanielCherny/status/1036786315075846144

Current Collingwood Contract Statuses

https://www.zerohanger.com/afl/teams/collingwood-magpies/

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/player-contract-status-2018-updated.1198239/

Uncontracted beyond 2018:

Alex Fasolo 26yr1m 101gm (UFA)
Tyson Goldsack 31yr2m 161gm (UFA) (will sign 1 year extension per HS)
Tom Langdon 24yr1m 72gm - allegedly unhappy with $ offered
Jarryd Blair 28yr3m 157gm (UFA)
Lynden Dunn 31yr2m 196gm (has agreed to 1 year extension per HS)
Levi Greenwood 29yr5m 127gm
Sam McLarty 20yr2m 0gm
Josh Daicos 19yr8m 11gm - close to 2 year extension per Tom Browne
Kayle Kirby 19yr9m 1gm
Tim Broomhead 24yr4m 36gm
Flynn Appleby (R) 19yr6m 9gm
Josh Smith 24yr7m 32gm
Brody Mihocek (R) 25yr5m 8gm - offered a 2 year extension per HS
Adam Oxley (R) 25yr9m 31gm
Jack Madgen (R) 25yr3m 1gm [has he re-signed? post link please.]
Sam Murray 20yr11m 12gm (The Age says contracted through 2019: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/magpie-sam-murray-being-investigated-by-asada-20180824-p4zzh0.html)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-trade-contract-list-free-agents-verdict-on-every-out-of-contract-player-at-end-of-2018/news-story/fa31f2dcd98d7846ab02a13c6363c83d

2019 List Build so far

1 Steele Sidebottom (2021)
2 Jeremy Howe (2021)
3 Adam Treloar (2021)
4 Josh Thomas (2021)
5 Jaidyn Stephenson (2021)
6 Scott Pendlebury (2020)
7 Brodie Grundy (2020)
8 Jordan de Goey (2020)
9 Will Hoskin-Elliott (2020) http://twitter.com/CollingwoodFC/status/1036457424192864256
10 Brayden Maynard (2020)
11 Mason Cox (2020)
12 Chris Mayne (2020)
13 Matthew Scharenberg (2020)
14 James Aish (2020)
15 Callum Brown (2020)
16 Nathan Murphy (2020)
17 Tyler Brown (2020)
18 Taylor Adams (2019)
19 Tom Phillips (2019)
20 Jack Crisp (2019)
21 Brayden Sier (2019)
22 Rupert Wills (2019)
23 Ben Reid (2019)
24 Daniel Wells (2019)
25 Ben Crocker (2019)
26 [Sam Murray (2019) per The Age: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/magpie-sam-murray-being-investigated-by-asada-20180824-p4zzh0.html] [to be delisted?]
27 Lynden Dunn (2019)
28 [Tyson Goldsack (2019)]
29 [Josh Daicos (2020)]
30 [Brody Mihocek (2020)]
31 Darcy Moore (2020) https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/darcy-moore-agrees-to-new-two-year-deal-with-collingwood-20181005-p507yt.html
32 [Tom Langdon]
33 Jamie Elliott (2019) per Trade Radio 1/10/18
34 Travis Varcoe (2019) https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/uncertain-times-for-many-magpies-heading-into-2018-20180220-p4z10p.html
35
36
37
38
[39]
[40]

Cat A R1 Max Lynch (2019) (R)
Cat A R2
Cat A R3
Cat A R4
[Cat A R5]
[Cat A R6]

Cat B R1
Cat B R2
Cat B R3

Brody Mihocek (R) - in negotiations (Jon Ralph).

Josh Daicos close to a 2 year extension (Tom Browne).

Goldsack and Dunn close to extensions (various reports).

TPP & ASA

2019: $12,758, 095 plus ASA $1,125,983.

Base Payments and Senior Match Payments

For players other than first year draft choice players, second year players, rookie players or players promoted from the rookie list …

2019 Base Payment (minimum) $105,000 plus a Senior Match Payment (minimum) $5,000 per match (per CBA Schedule C, cl 1(2a)).

Our NGA and FS Eligible Players

Full 2018 NGA List:

Atuniasa Bosenavulagi
Ubil Chol
Piers Hikaru McDermott
Kang Nyoak
Isaac Quaynor
Bailey Wraith

http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2018-06-28/pies-among-fatherson-and-academy-prospects

https://twitter.com/CalTwomey/status/1018720231953317889

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/23444718/afl-draft-chris-doerre-knightmare-father-son-academy-analysis

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/will-kelly-son-of-former-pie-craig-firming-as-high-draft-pick-as-collingwood-waits-on-darcy-moore/news-story/6b1f866fd2bff651cfe1ca802044f4b7

On the radar:

Isaac Quaynor (NGA)

Will Kelly (FS)

Bailey Wraith (NGA)

Atu Bosenavulagi (NGA)

What Draft Picks Can we Trade?

We can trade all our 2018 draft picks*. We must, however, make at least 3 selections (including rookie upgrades) in the national draft. Trading away draft picks will just push us down the draft order, we don't run out.

*If we trade our 2018 first rounder then come 2019 and the second restriction noted above we will not meet the pre-condition which allows us to trade away our future (2020) first rounder unless we trade in a first round pick:

2015: traded (Treloar)
2016: traded (Treloar)
2017: Stephenson
2018: ???

This year we can also trade either:

(a) our future (2019) first rounder; or

(b) our future (2019) other round picks.j

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Last edited by MightyMagpie on Thu Nov 22, 2018 4:55 pm; edited 63 times in total
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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:01 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Cheers M M.

While there is still so much to play out before the draft day, I’m starting to think that Collingwood matching any bid for Quaynor, isn’t as cut n dry as most would think.
At the end of the day, he is “ just “ a classy HBF and it seems to me that we would / should have bigger fish to fry with our first rounder.

Will Kelly, who will likely go a little later, is a different story. He would surely be a prime target. My guess is, his name won’t be called out till later in the second round anyway ( plus he’s a KPD )
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:04 pm
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Pies2016 wrote:
Cheers M M.

While there is still so much to play out before the draft day, I’m starting to think that Collingwood matching any bid for Quaynor, isn’t as cut n dry as most would think.
At the end of the day, he is “ just “ a classy HBF and it seems to me that we would / should have bigger fish to fry with our first rounder.

Will Kelly, who will likely go a little later, is a different story. He would surely be a prime target. My guess is, his name won’t be called out till later in the second round anyway ( plus he’s a KPD )



Re Quaynor the big issue (outside of how we value him) will be whether he is bid on before or after our first round pick. It will be a massive difference just like the Darcy Moore draft.

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Boogie Knights 



Joined: 18 Sep 2015


PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:17 pm
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Another NGA kid we'll look at (but hopefully get for free on the cat B rookie list if noone elects him) is small forward Atu Bosenavulagi. He's a defensive pressure specialist and has played underage Rugby 7s for Fiji.

Given the way the game is going with forward pressure being key, he could rise up draft boards as a speculative pick.
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:18 pm
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Boogie Knights wrote:
Another NGA kid we'll look at (but hopefully get for free on the cat B rookie list if noone elects him) is small forward Atu Bosenavulagi. He's a defensive pressure specialist and has played underage Rugby 7s for Fiji.

Given the way the game is going with forward pressure being key, he could rise up draft boards as a speculative pick.



Thanks … I thought I had missed one.

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MagpiesTheGreat 



Joined: 01 Dec 2014


PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:50 pm
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Nice work, MM
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:00 pm
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Can we leverage our UFAs into a decent draft pick as compensation?

Goldsack
Blair
Fasolo

My gut was to offer re-sign G and B on minimum salary (essentially depth players). F appears out of favour although personally I would try to resign him if he wants to stay in Melbourne.

GCS are desperate for experienced and mature players. We may be able to help set up two premiership players for life if they are prepared to sign at GCS bearing in mind that GCS will have plenty of salary cap room.

Anyway, we will need to weigh up the value of keeping these guys as depth versus potentially leveraging them into draft pick compensation (which costs the signing club nothing except salary).

I’ve mentioned elsewhere that that compensation pick could be bundled up with another pick and say Oxley and Smith as an offer to GCS for May. With that in mind, GCS may be prepared to offer Blair overs to bump up the value of the compensation pick we get and pass on to them.

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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:29 am
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I would consider cutting the cord with the following group of players.

Alex Fasolo 26yr1m 101gm (UFA)
Jamie Elliott 25yr11m 89gm
Tyson Goldsack 31yr2m 161gm (UFA)
Jarryd Blair 28yr3m 157gm (UFA)
Kayle Kirby 19yr9m 1gm
Tim Broomhead 24yr4m 36gm
Josh Smith 24yr7m 32gm
Adam Oxley (R) 25yr9m 31gm

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RudeBoy 



Joined: 28 Nov 2005


PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:11 pm
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That's an impressive amount of info you've provided for us MM. Thanks mate.
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qldmagpie67 



Joined: 18 Dec 2008


PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:17 pm
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1 Alex Fasalo - out of favour trade away
5 Jamie Elliott - 1 year deal at this point with option for further if he can get on the field
6 Tyson Goldsack - Could be handy back up 1 year only
8 Tom Langdon - seemed likley not to get new deal until recent run of injuries likley now a 1 year deal at best unless he gets a offer for more elsewhere then take the trade
11 Jarryd Blair - no value to the list going forward delist
15 Lynden Dunn - knee surgery kills 2019 doubtful beyond that
19 Levi Greenwood - 1 year deal at best
23 Sam McLarty - worth keeping around 2 year deal
26 Josh Daicos - give him 2 more years
27 Kayle Kirby - heart issue ending any chance he had
29 Tim Broomhead - surpassed by other trade if we can
30 Darcy Moore - need to keep we don't have enough talls as it is
31 Flynn Appleby - shown enough to get another deal
32 Will Hoskin-Elliott - must keep give him 3 year deal
40 Josh Smith - surpassed by others trade if we can
41 Brody Mihoeck - keep around proven handy player big upside I think
43 Adam Oxley - surpassed by other trade if we can
44 Jack Madgen - long term project needs more time
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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:33 pm
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qldmagpie67 wrote:
1 Alex Fasalo - out of favour trade away
5 Jamie Elliott - 1 year deal at this point with option for further if he can get on the field
6 Tyson Goldsack - Could be handy back up 1 year only
8 Tom Langdon - seemed likley not to get new deal until recent run of injuries likley now a 1 year deal at best unless he gets a offer for more elsewhere then take the trade
11 Jarryd Blair - no value to the list going forward delist
15 Lynden Dunn - knee surgery kills 2019 doubtful beyond that
19 Levi Greenwood - 1 year deal at best
23 Sam McLarty - worth keeping around 2 year deal
26 Josh Daicos - give him 2 more years
27 Kayle Kirby - heart issue ending any chance he had
29 Tim Broomhead - surpassed by other trade if we can
30 Darcy Moore - need to keep we don't have enough talls as it is
31 Flynn Appleby - shown enough to get another deal
32 Will Hoskin-Elliott - must keep give him 3 year deal
40 Josh Smith - surpassed by others trade if we can
41 Brody Mihoeck - keep around proven handy player big upside I think
43 Adam Oxley - surpassed by other trade if we can
44 Jack Madgen - long term project needs more time


your assessment looks so balanced, except your assessment of Langdon makes you look like a clown.....

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mgh3536 



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Melbourne

PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:17 pm
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qldmagpie67 wrote:
1 Alex Fasalo - out of favour trade away
5 Jamie Elliott - 1 year deal at this point with option for further if he can get on the field
6 Tyson Goldsack - Could be handy back up 1 year only
8 Tom Langdon - seemed likley not to get new deal until recent run of injuries likley now a 1 year deal at best unless he gets a offer for more elsewhere then take the trade
11 Jarryd Blair - no value to the list going forward delist
15 Lynden Dunn - knee surgery kills 2019 doubtful beyond that
19 Levi Greenwood - 1 year deal at best
23 Sam McLarty - worth keeping around 2 year deal
26 Josh Daicos - give him 2 more years
27 Kayle Kirby - heart issue ending any chance he had
29 Tim Broomhead - surpassed by other trade if we can
30 Darcy Moore - need to keep we don't have enough talls as it is
31 Flynn Appleby - shown enough to get another deal
32 Will Hoskin-Elliott - must keep give him 3 year deal
40 Josh Smith - surpassed by others trade if we can
41 Brody Mihoeck - keep around proven handy player big upside I think
43 Adam Oxley - surpassed by other trade if we can
44 Jack Madgen - long term project needs more time


pretty accurate
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swoop42 Virgo

Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?


Joined: 02 Aug 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:07 pm
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We won't be passing on Quaynor IMO.

Hine clearly rates him highly.

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Jezza Taurus

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Joined: 06 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:22 am
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Great job, MM.

Always found your lengthy off season threads very helpful in previous years.

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Piethagoras' Theorem Taurus

the hypotenuse, is always a cakewalk


Joined: 29 May 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:20 am
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E wrote:
qldmagpie67 wrote:
1 Alex Fasalo - out of favour trade away
5 Jamie Elliott - 1 year deal at this point with option for further if he can get on the field
6 Tyson Goldsack - Could be handy back up 1 year only
8 Tom Langdon - seemed likley not to get new deal until recent run of injuries likley now a 1 year deal at best unless he gets a offer for more elsewhere then take the trade
11 Jarryd Blair - no value to the list going forward delist
15 Lynden Dunn - knee surgery kills 2019 doubtful beyond that
19 Levi Greenwood - 1 year deal at best
23 Sam McLarty - worth keeping around 2 year deal
26 Josh Daicos - give him 2 more years
27 Kayle Kirby - heart issue ending any chance he had
29 Tim Broomhead - surpassed by other trade if we can
30 Darcy Moore - need to keep we don't have enough talls as it is
31 Flynn Appleby - shown enough to get another deal
32 Will Hoskin-Elliott - must keep give him 3 year deal
40 Josh Smith - surpassed by others trade if we can
41 Brody Mihoeck - keep around proven handy player big upside I think
43 Adam Oxley - surpassed by other trade if we can
44 Jack Madgen - long term project needs more time


your assessment looks so balanced, except your assessment of Langdon makes you look like a clown.....


No one quite has it in for a player the way qldmagpie67 does. Poor bloke must be having conniptions after another BOG or thereabouts from Langdon. Sidey's been bit off since his 200th, watch him jump back on to that hobby horse Laughing Razz

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