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Mighty Magpie's Offseason Trade and List Management Blog

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:29 am
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Dunn is out of contract with an ACL. I think that means we can take the risk and de-list him and then rookie list him for 2019. That would open up a primary list spot.

The other thing that is abundantly clear is that we need some ready-made key position depth (especially back). Trade possibilities aside, I'm told that Sam Collins from the VFL is the man (http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=84347)

Trades aside, would we be happy with a draft haul of:

Pick [15]

Isaac Quaynor (NGA)

Will Kelly (FS)

Sam Collins

Bailey Wraith (NGA)

Atu Bosenavulagi (NGA) - rookie

Marty Hore - rookie?

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Raw Hammer 



Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:15 pm
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Likely ladder position: 8-12

Pick [7-11]

Trade for May (GCS)

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inxs88 



Joined: 17 Aug 2014


PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:14 pm
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E wrote:
I would consider cutting the cord with the following group of players.

Alex Fasolo 26yr1m 101gm (UFA)
Jamie Elliott 25yr11m 89gm
Tyson Goldsack 31yr2m 161gm (UFA)
Jarryd Blair 28yr3m 157gm (UFA)
Kayle Kirby 19yr9m 1gm
Tim Broomhead 24yr4m 36gm
Josh Smith 24yr7m 32gm
Adam Oxley (R) 25yr9m 31gm


Nasty list management Eric, I like it # praise you

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inxs88 



Joined: 17 Aug 2014


PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:19 pm
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E wrote:
qldmagpie67 wrote:
1 Alex Fasalo - out of favour trade away
5 Jamie Elliott - 1 year deal at this point with option for further if he can get on the field
6 Tyson Goldsack - Could be handy back up 1 year only
8 Tom Langdon - seemed likley not to get new deal until recent run of injuries likley now a 1 year deal at best unless he gets a offer for more elsewhere then take the trade
11 Jarryd Blair - no value to the list going forward delist
15 Lynden Dunn - knee surgery kills 2019 doubtful beyond that
19 Levi Greenwood - 1 year deal at best
23 Sam McLarty - worth keeping around 2 year deal
26 Josh Daicos - give him 2 more years
27 Kayle Kirby - heart issue ending any chance he had
29 Tim Broomhead - surpassed by other trade if we can
30 Darcy Moore - need to keep we don't have enough talls as it is
31 Flynn Appleby - shown enough to get another deal
32 Will Hoskin-Elliott - must keep give him 3 year deal
40 Josh Smith - surpassed by others trade if we can
41 Brody Mihoeck - keep around proven handy player big upside I think
43 Adam Oxley - surpassed by other trade if we can
44 Jack Madgen - long term project needs more time


your assessment looks so balanced, except your assessment of Langdon makes you look like a clown.....


Getting personal again Eric with the “clown” reference # classless

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qldmagpie67 



Joined: 18 Dec 2008


PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:56 pm
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E wrote:
qldmagpie67 wrote:
1 Alex Fasalo - out of favour trade away
5 Jamie Elliott - 1 year deal at this point with option for further if he can get on the field
6 Tyson Goldsack - Could be handy back up 1 year only
8 Tom Langdon - seemed likley not to get new deal until recent run of injuries likley now a 1 year deal at best unless he gets a offer for more elsewhere then take the trade
11 Jarryd Blair - no value to the list going forward delist
15 Lynden Dunn - knee surgery kills 2019 doubtful beyond that
19 Levi Greenwood - 1 year deal at best
23 Sam McLarty - worth keeping around 2 year deal
26 Josh Daicos - give him 2 more years
27 Kayle Kirby - heart issue ending any chance he had
29 Tim Broomhead - surpassed by other trade if we can
30 Darcy Moore - need to keep we don't have enough talls as it is
31 Flynn Appleby - shown enough to get another deal
32 Will Hoskin-Elliott - must keep give him 3 year deal
40 Josh Smith - surpassed by others trade if we can
41 Brody Mihoeck - keep around proven handy player big upside I think
43 Adam Oxley - surpassed by other trade if we can
44 Jack Madgen - long term project needs more time


your assessment looks so balanced, except your assessment of Langdon makes you look like a clown.....


The Langdon assessment was based on his managers comments a couple months ago when asked how he was progressing with his new contract. His manager said at the time the club had knocked back there request for a 3 year deal and said they wouldn't be giving him a answer until seasons end when they did a list assessment.
Given the club then went on signing players including HBF types and other defenders it isn't a far stretch at all to assume he was one of the guys who may have been looking elsewhere beyond 2018
The part about if he gets a offer elsewhere is it would then be his decision to leave and take the longer deal giving us a trade inwards
Hardly rocket science really
As I said the injuries to Dunn and Scharenberg have likley given him increased bargaining power now but with his chornic knee given him or any other player with a chronic injury any longer than 1 year doesn't make any sense
I also made the same assumption on Elliott except in Elliott's case he's been a proven consistent performer and fills a void we don't have a over abundance of players position wise like we do with backline players
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think positive Libra

Side By Side


Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:47 pm
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inxs88 wrote:
E wrote:
I would consider cutting the cord with the following group of players.

Alex Fasolo 26yr1m 101gm (UFA)
Jamie Elliott 25yr11m 89gm
Tyson Goldsack 31yr2m 161gm (UFA)
Jarryd Blair 28yr3m 157gm (UFA)
Kayle Kirby 19yr9m 1gm
Tim Broomhead 24yr4m 36gm
Josh Smith 24yr7m 32gm
Adam Oxley (R) 25yr9m 31gm



Nasty list management Eric, I like it # praise you


I’d agree with all except Faz, one more roll of the dice

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:14 pm
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Elliott - too talented to cut. Offer low salary with match payments and a trigger for extension at higher salary if he plays say 11 or more senior games.

Fasolo - he may have his papers stamped at the club, but for mine he is too talented to let go unless his contract demands are outrageous. Failing that, look to maximise FA compensation.

Dunn - towards end of career and ACL injury, but potentially an important depth player. I think we can delist and rookie him with minimal risk (if we need an extra primary list spot) and offer him a low salary and match payments.

Goldsack - towards end of career, but potentially an important depth player. Has indicated he will play for "free". I think we can delist and rookie him with minimal risk (if we need an extra primary list spot) and offer him a low salary and match payments.

Blair - still only 28. Important depth player. Offer him a low salary and match payments or look at options to maximise FA compensation (see my GCS idea above).

Oxley and Smith are delists for me (although see my GCS idea above).

Kirby depends entirely on the medical situation for me.

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Piethagoras' Theorem Taurus

the hypotenuse, is always a cakewalk


Joined: 29 May 2006


PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:26 pm
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Yep, surely Kirby gets the benefit of the doubt, pending further medical analysis.
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inxs88 



Joined: 17 Aug 2014


PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:45 pm
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FrankieGoesToCollingwood wrote:
Yep, surely Kirby gets the benefit of the doubt, pending further medical analysis.


Can’t keep an original speculative pick on list or 3 years+

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bally12 Aquarius



Joined: 30 Sep 2010


PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:23 pm
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I'd be enquiring about Dean Kent from Melbourne.

Seemingly out-of-favour at the Dees after returning from a hammy (yes I know, tread carefully here).
IMO was one of Melbourne's best players this year before he got injured. He's 24, got a nice left foot, fast, and tough as nails. And we know how Melbourne rates its own players (see L Dunn).
I also think he's out of contract at the end of 2018, however could be wrong here.
Hopefully a 3rd rounder could get this done. Anyone agree?
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:56 pm
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bally12 wrote:
I'd be enquiring about Dean Kent from Melbourne.

Seemingly out-of-favour at the Dees after returning from a hammy (yes I know, tread carefully here).
IMO was one of Melbourne's best players this year before he got injured. He's 24, got a nice left foot, fast, and tough as nails. And we know how Melbourne rates its own players (see L Dunn).
I also think he's out of contract at the end of 2018, however could be wrong here.
Hopefully a 3rd rounder could get this done. Anyone agree?


Taken in the third round originally and out of contract at end of 2018: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pp-melbourne-demons--dean-kent

Only 179cm/86kg though.

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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:17 pm
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inxs88 wrote:
FrankieGoesToCollingwood wrote:
Yep, surely Kirby gets the benefit of the doubt, pending further medical analysis.


Can’t keep an original speculative pick on list or 3 years+


If his heart condition is manageable with medication and he's able to go flat out at training, I'd give him another 12 months, tell him to get fit (no excuses) and see what happens.

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SwansWay 



Joined: 13 May 2015


PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:52 pm
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MightyMagpie wrote:
Elliott - too talented to cut. Offer low salary with match payments and a trigger for extension at higher salary if he plays say 11 or more senior games.

Fasolo - he may have his papers stamped at the club, but for mine he is too talented to let go unless his contract demands are outrageous. Failing that, look to maximise FA compensation.

Dunn - towards end of career and ACL injury, but potentially an important depth player. I think we can delist and rookie him with minimal risk (if we need an extra primary list spot) and offer him a low salary and match payments.

Goldsack - towards end of career, but potentially an important depth player. Has indicated he will play for "free". I think we can delist and rookie him with minimal risk (if we need an extra primary list spot) and offer him a low salary and match payments.

Blair - still only 28. Important depth player. Offer him a low salary and match payments or look at options to maximise FA compensation (see my GCS idea above).

Oxley and Smith are delists for me (although see my GCS idea above).

Kirby depends entirely on the medical situation for me.


So the guy who's been our general in defence, maybe one of the best in the league is suddenly just a depth player? And to reward him for great form we delist him and put him on a rookie list with a pay cut? What if another team gets him in the draft before us? He could easily have 3 more years in him. Thankfully you aren't an AFL list manager unless you work for Carlton 😜
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:57 pm
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SwansWay wrote:
MightyMagpie wrote:
Elliott - too talented to cut. Offer low salary with match payments and a trigger for extension at higher salary if he plays say 11 or more senior games.

Fasolo - he may have his papers stamped at the club, but for mine he is too talented to let go unless his contract demands are outrageous. Failing that, look to maximise FA compensation.

Dunn - towards end of career and ACL injury, but potentially an important depth player. I think we can delist and rookie him with minimal risk (if we need an extra primary list spot) and offer him a low salary and match payments.

Goldsack - towards end of career, but potentially an important depth player. Has indicated he will play for "free". I think we can delist and rookie him with minimal risk (if we need an extra primary list spot) and offer him a low salary and match payments.

Blair - still only 28. Important depth player. Offer him a low salary and match payments or look at options to maximise FA compensation (see my GCS idea above).

Oxley and Smith are delists for me (although see my GCS idea above).

Kirby depends entirely on the medical situation for me.


So the guy who's been our general in defence, maybe one of the best in the league is suddenly just a depth player? And to reward him for great form we delist him and put him on a rookie list with a pay cut? What if another team gets him in the draft before us? He could easily have 3 more years in him. Thankfully you aren't an AFL list manager unless you work for Carlton 😜


Purely based on his age and the fact that he’ll need the best part of 12 months to recover from his ACL. I’m no doctor, but my understanding is that once you do an ACL there is a greater risk of recurrence (than the original incidence). I suspect that is magnified in guys over 100kgs.

I’ve not suggested delisting him and kicking him out the door. Just that if we need a primary list spot it may be worth the risk of delisting and rookie-ing him. As for salary, he came here for opportunity and we traded something like pick 47 for him and pick 51. I’d be surprised if he was on much above minimum now. The new CBA has dramatically closed the gap between rookie salary/match payments and primary minimum salary/match payments.

In making this decision you need to be consider where a 32yo Dunn fits in in our 2020 team and beyond given he is likely going to miss a large part of 2019

Possible, but very unlikely that a team is going to pick a guy who won’t play for the season and will be 32 before he’s back playing.

FWIW The Fox Footy article I link above says:

Lynden Dunn — The key defender was set to ink a new deal before he suffered a season ending ACL injury back in Round 15. As a popular figure at the club, Dunn should earn a new deal. RE-CONTRACT

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Last edited by MightyMagpie on Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
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SwansWay 



Joined: 13 May 2015


PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:00 pm
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MightyMagpie wrote:
SwansWay wrote:
MightyMagpie wrote:
Elliott - too talented to cut. Offer low salary with match payments and a trigger for extension at higher salary if he plays say 11 or more senior games.

Fasolo - he may have his papers stamped at the club, but for mine he is too talented to let go unless his contract demands are outrageous. Failing that, look to maximise FA compensation.

Dunn - towards end of career and ACL injury, but potentially an important depth player. I think we can delist and rookie him with minimal risk (if we need an extra primary list spot) and offer him a low salary and match payments.

Goldsack - towards end of career, but potentially an important depth player. Has indicated he will play for "free". I think we can delist and rookie him with minimal risk (if we need an extra primary list spot) and offer him a low salary and match payments.

Blair - still only 28. Important depth player. Offer him a low salary and match payments or look at options to maximise FA compensation (see my GCS idea above).

Oxley and Smith are delists for me (although see my GCS idea above).

Kirby depends entirely on the medical situation for me.


So the guy who's been our general in defence, maybe one of the best in the league is suddenly just a depth player? And to reward him for great form we delist him and put him on a rookie list with a pay cut? What if another team gets him in the draft before us? He could easily have 3 more years in him. Thankfully you aren't an AFL list manager unless you work for Carlton 😜


Purely based on his age and the fact that he’ll need the best part of 12 months to recover from his ACL.

Possible, but very unlikely that a team is going to pick a guy who won’t play for the season and will be 32 before he’s back playing.


Knee aside, Dunn has never been injury prone. I honestly think he has a few more years left in him. His body is solid.
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