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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| Post subject: Gold Coast Tanking today helped us in the Lynch Stakes |  |
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I tipped the Suns to lose today because a win for them would have been hugely costly. Might have turned the 2 and 3 pick into the 4 and 5 pick. That is VERY different currency and there is no way they were giving that up.
I think this means they are definitely losing Lynch and are positioning to benefit from the move.
We simply have to get him at this point.
We also need to plan for the post Scharenberg era (as bitter a pill as that is to swallow). What is the story with May. Is he a RFA also? Or is he contracted?
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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ronrat
Joined: 22 May 2006
Location: Thailand
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If they ask for josh Thomas say ok we will throw in Oxley and we get Lynch and 2nd pick.
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Annoying opposition supporters since 1967. |
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Albert Parker
Joined: 13 Dec 2012
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^No, they let him slip to another team and they get the 2 picks in the top 5 of a strong draft as the compensation. They wouldn't prefer Josh Thomas and our first round pick.
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One team, one dream - the Pies and this year's premiership |
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piedys 
Heeeeeeere's Dyso!!!
Joined: 04 Sep 2003
Location: Resident Forum Psychopath since 2003
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| ronrat wrote: | | If they ask for josh Thomas say ok we will throw in Oxley and we get Lynch and 2nd pick. |
I don't think they can ask for jack shit Ronnie; pretty sure Tom has done his 8 years in hell, and can walk away...
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Cam 
Nick's BB Member #166
Joined: 10 May 2002
Location: Springvale
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I'll say it again. We either have Lynch already, or have not got Lynch already. There are no stakes, everything is just PR or smoke. I tend to think we have him.
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AN_Inkling
Joined: 06 Oct 2007
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I don't see any chance that the Suns will allow Lynch to go to any team for nothing. That's fanciful thinking. It will be a trade.
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Cam
Nick's BB Member #166
Joined: 10 May 2002
Location: Springvale
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He's a restricted free agent.
Restricted free agents can move to a club of their choice, providing their existing club does not match an offer made.
If the club matches the offer, and the player does not want to stay, he must nominate for the draft.
e.g. Dale Thomas
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AN_Inkling
Joined: 06 Oct 2007
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^^Or seek a trade.
| Quote: | | An offer to a restricted free agent may be matched by his club, which has right of first refusal over his services. If the restricted free agent player does not wish to remain with his original club, he must enter the draft or seek a trade. |
This is almost certainly what would happen. I see no reason for the Suns to give a raiding club a free kick. It would be unprecedented.
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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An inkling, my point is that its a good sign that suns tanked because they appear to be very keen to secure the best possible draft position. If i am GC, i am more inclined to do this if it means getting TWO high picks (i.e., pick 2 and 3).
I think the way this goes down is that GC let's Lynch leave and in return the AFL helps GC on compensation. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see GC get pick 3 AND at least one draft pick at the end of the first round. This is a better outcome for GC than a trade (especially in a strong draft). if they didnt tank and passed Brissy and st. Kilda on the ladder, then the AFL could only give them pick 5. the difference in currency between pick 2 and 3 vs pick 4 and 5 is evidently huge.
On the other hand, May, they might trade for a collection of players and draft picks. I'd give them McLarty and our first round pick (plus throw in one or two players no longer in our best 22 if they want any of them as steak knives).
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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tbaker
Joined: 02 Jul 2018
Location: Q19 Southern Stand MCG
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| Cam wrote: | | I'll say it again. We either have Lynch already, or have not got Lynch already. There are no stakes, everything is just PR or smoke. I tend to think we have him. |
What makes you think we have him?
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I find your lack of faith disturbing |
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thebaldfacts
Joined: 02 Aug 2007
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| AN_Inkling wrote: | ^^Or seek a trade.
| Quote: | | An offer to a restricted free agent may be matched by his club, which has right of first refusal over his services. If the restricted free agent player does not wish to remain with his original club, he must enter the draft or seek a trade. |
This is almost certainly what would happen. I see no reason for the Suns to give a raiding club a free kick. It would be unprecedented. |
They would get a compo pick, which would most likely be after their first pick, which means pick 3.
Depends if they value pick 3 more than what they expect they can get from us or Richmond. |
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MatthewBoydFanClub
Joined: 12 Feb 2007
Location: Elwood
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| AN_Inkling wrote: | | I don't see any chance that the Suns will allow Lynch to go to any team for nothing. That's fanciful thinking. It will be a trade. |
I think we have moved on from getting Lynch. I think our real target is Steve May who would be a better fit for our team, having lost Dunn and Scharenberg with a question mark over Goldsack continuing next year. Either way I think we're looking at trading to secure either. If it's Lynch over May I don't know how we are going to pay the other players on our list whose contracts are coming up for renewal. |
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Cam
Nick's BB Member #166
Joined: 10 May 2002
Location: Springvale
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They will receive a compensation pick from the AFL if they don't match and let him go where he wants.
eg Daisy, Motlop, Rockliff, Buddy, Betts, Dal Santo, Goddard, Shaun Higgins
No trades involved. All restricted free agents like Lynch.
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AN_Inkling
Joined: 06 Oct 2007
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| E wrote: | An inkling, my point is that its a good sign that suns tanked because they appear to be very keen to secure the best possible draft position. If i am GC, i am more inclined to do this if it means getting TWO high picks (i.e., pick 2 and 3).
I think the way this goes down is that GC let's Lynch leave and in return the AFL helps GC on compensation. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see GC get pick 3 AND at least one draft pick at the end of the first round. This is a better outcome for GC than a trade (especially in a strong draft). if they didnt tank and passed Brissy and st. Kilda on the ladder, then the AFL could only give them pick 5. the difference in currency between pick 2 and 3 vs pick 4 and 5 is evidently huge.
On the other hand, May, they might trade for a collection of players and draft picks. I'd give them McLarty and our first round pick (plus throw in one or two players no longer in our best 22 if they want any of them as steak knives). |
I understand the point and why some think GC would take a compo pick over a trade. To me though, it doesn't seem realistic for the following reasons:
1. They can likely get more than pick 3 via trade. Two later first round picks plus a decent player is my guess. Or, one first round pick and a good player - I'd see this as their preference. Much better to add a quality AFL player who is ready to go than yet another draft pick. Suns have had more than their fill of those.
2. Even if the compensation is better or almost the same as what they'd receive via trade, there are two parts to a player leaving: what you get back and what you can extract from the other club. The latter is just as important. I don't see a club letting their captain walk and not looking to extract the maximum possible from his new club. I'd be expecting something closer to Dangerfield leaving than allowing Lynch to go for nothing, though with less good will.
The only possible wrinkle in my certainty that Lynch will be traded is if May also leaves to the same team. Maybe a team trades overs for May and GC allows Lynch to go for the compensation pick. Even just thinking about the salary cap makes this unlikely, let alone magnanimity to a team taking your two best players.
As a side note: I don't think there's much difference between pick 2 and 3 or 4 and 5. Every year we here the top 3 are the best or whatever. It's almost never the case. Having two top 5 picks is great, the numbering doesn't matter so much.
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Well done boys! |
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MatthewBoydFanClub
Joined: 12 Feb 2007
Location: Elwood
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| AN_Inkling wrote: | | E wrote: | An inkling, my point is that its a good sign that suns tanked because they appear to be very keen to secure the best possible draft position. If i am GC, i am more inclined to do this if it means getting TWO high picks (i.e., pick 2 and 3).
I think the way this goes down is that GC let's Lynch leave and in return the AFL helps GC on compensation. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see GC get pick 3 AND at least one draft pick at the end of the first round. This is a better outcome for GC than a trade (especially in a strong draft). if they didnt tank and passed Brissy and st. Kilda on the ladder, then the AFL could only give them pick 5. the difference in currency between pick 2 and 3 vs pick 4 and 5 is evidently huge.
On the other hand, May, they might trade for a collection of players and draft picks. I'd give them McLarty and our first round pick (plus throw in one or two players no longer in our best 22 if they want any of them as steak knives). |
I understand the point and why some think GC would take a compo pick over a trade. To me though, it doesn't seem realistic for the following reasons:
1. They can likely get more than pick 3 via trade. Two later first round picks plus a decent player is my guess. Or, one first round pick and a good player - I'd see this as their preference. Much better to add a quality AFL player who is ready to go than yet another draft pick. Suns have had more than their fill of those.
2. Even if the compensation is better or almost the same as what they'd receive via trade, there are two parts to a player leaving: what you get back and what you can extract from the other club. The latter is just as important. I don't see a club letting their captain walk and not looking to extract the maximum possible from his new club. I'd be expecting something closer to Dangerfield leaving than allowing Lynch to go for nothing, though with less good will.
The only possible wrinkle in my certainty that Lynch will be traded is if May also leaves to the same team. Maybe a team trades overs for May and GC allows Lynch to go for the compensation pick. Even just thinking about the salary cap makes this unlikely, let alone magnanimity to a team taking your two best players.
As a side note: I don't think there's much difference between pick 2 and 3 or 4 and 5. Every year we here the top 3 are the best or whatever. It's almost never the case. Having two top 5 picks is great, the numbering doesn't matter so much. |
Don't see how any team could afford both Lynch and May unless GC pays some of May's salary next year. That won't happen. Also in this year's draft there are two jet midfielders in the first six picks and three KPP's. Gold Coast will be well compensated with the priority pick, but they will want more and the AFL who are funding GC, will help the GC get more if they lose Lynch. |
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