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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| 5 from the wing on debut wrote: | | E wrote: | | eddiesmith wrote: | | E wrote: | | AnthonyC wrote: | It is fraught with danger trying to predict why one position might be better than another to finish in the eight.
The double chance has proven to be the best option over a long period of time, it would be quite foolish (perhaps revolutionary!) to manufacture a result outside the top four based on some crystal ball expectations.
2002 should teach us that. |
This is why percentage doesn't matter by the way!  |
If we win every game remaining, then % will be the difference between playing West Coast at the MCG or in Perth, but yeah tell us % doesn't matter... |
If we are good enough to win the flag, we will beat them at either venue and if we are not good enough (as appears to be the case), we will not beat them no matter where we play them. Also, how do you know that losing or winning in week 1 matters in the quest to win a flag? Maybe Richmond get beaten in week 1 by GWS and we avoid Richmond in the finals altogether as they have to go to Perth for the prelim.?
This is why percentage doesnt matter. It doesn't mean there wont be different fact patterns that play out in the finals, but since winning GFs is all that matters, percentage doesn't matter. you are either good enough to win it all or you are not. if something so small as home field advantage makes such a difference that it changes your ability to win a GF, then you arent really good enough to win a GF. |
We won the flag in 90.
Got smashed by the Weagles over there.
Beat them here. |
Percentage was super important in 1990. And even more important in 1992. Back when the finals system was different percentage mattered.
My point is that with the advent of the final 8 as we know it (especially now that there is a first week bye), percentage is no longer important. Its totally random whether it might help or hurt you and it cant help you so much that it turns a non-premiership team into a premiership team. if you miss out on the top 4 due to percentage and then lose to the 8th place team, you have no right to claim you have premiership aspirations. I can walk through each of the other examples to show this is true in ALL other cases.
If you have to travel to Perth and lose, but you cant beat the other two teams you play before the rematch with the Eagles at the MCG on GF day, then your arent seriously a team with premiership aspirations..
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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eddiesmith 
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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| E wrote: | | eddiesmith wrote: | | E wrote: | | AnthonyC wrote: | It is fraught with danger trying to predict why one position might be better than another to finish in the eight.
The double chance has proven to be the best option over a long period of time, it would be quite foolish (perhaps revolutionary!) to manufacture a result outside the top four based on some crystal ball expectations.
2002 should teach us that. |
This is why percentage doesn't matter by the way! |
If we win every game remaining, then % will be the difference between playing West Coast at the MCG or in Perth, but yeah tell us % doesn't matter... |
If we are good enough to win the flag, we will beat them at either venue and if we are not good enough (as appears to be the case), we will not beat them no matter where we play them. Also, how do you know that losing or winning in week 1 matters in the quest to win a flag? Maybe Richmond get beaten in week 1 by GWS and we avoid Richmond in the finals altogether as they have to go to Perth for the prelim.?
This is why percentage doesnt matter. It doesn't mean there wont be different fact patterns that play out in the finals, but since winning GFs is all that matters, percentage doesn't matter. you are either good enough to win it all or you are not. if something so small as home field advantage makes such a difference that it changes your ability to win a GF, then you arent really good enough to win a GF. |
So you don’t think 2 trips to Perth in 3 weeks would have a negative effect?
In 2007 we fall agonisingly short of a premiership, that result could have been different if we hadn’t been to Perth and played extra time the week before.
In a season when there is so little between the top 8, you want to be running out games and I’d rather be the side at home with the advantage than coming off a couple of trips West and running into Richmond who haven’t left town for 6 weeks |
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3rd degree 
Joined: 22 Jun 2004
Location: John Wren's tote
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Winning a final for me this year is a pass mark, any further with our injury list is a bonus i will enjoy. nothing would be better than to see richmond lose the gf this year.
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" Ohhh Banksy and out comes the Note Book".
www.facebook/the hybernators |
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npalm
Joined: 01 May 2005
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^^ Given where we've come from and given our extreme run of injuries making the finals is better than a pass mark for me.
Any finals wins would be a bonus.
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Side by side. |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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Whatever happens from here it is a pass mark.
Hopefully we can continue to battle against the (injury) odds, but I'd understand if we have passed the tipping point now.
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All We Can Be |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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Hopefully we can win 3 of our remaining 4 games and secure a top 4 spot.
Regardless of win/loss records and recent form, none of these games are shoe-ins. We'll need to play well to win them. Hopefully we get De Goey back sooner rather than later. |
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Johnno75
Joined: 07 Oct 2010
Location: Wantirna
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Confident we will beat Brisbane and Freo, so if we beat Sydney or Port then we will finish 3rd or 4th. Then if we manage to snag a final that would be a massive bonus to get to a prelim.
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Human behavioural studies suggest people who use a lot of swear words tend to be more honest & trustworthy. |
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BazBoy
Joined: 11 Sep 2014
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It would really cheese me off if we fell back after the freaking hard work and te constant injury changes to our balance—Elliot well he I’m not fussed about
cos I doubt he could do a better job as crumming fwd that Josh Thomas
Believe what we have is what we work with —if Goldy gets back and Treloar
Yes we can make the eighth but GF can big hard job
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I'm not arguing--just explaining why i am right |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Yeah, I think the equation is this:
4 wins: Probably in a percentage battle with West Coast for 2nd. 3rd at worst.
3 wins (win vs Port, lose against Sydney or one of the other teams): 3rd or 4th. Win against Port means we’re very likely to be top 4.
3 wins (win vs Sydney, lose vs Port): probably 4th, minor chance of missing top 4.
2 wins: Probably 5th to 8th depending on percentage. Slight chance of missing finals, but unlikely.
1 win: likely in percentage battle with Hawthorn/North for top 8. Still a good chance to make it, but will be relying on other results to go our way.
0 wins: See ya next year.
Teams to barrack for this round:
Richmond to beat Geelong
Essendon to beat Hawthorn
Adelaide to beat Port
Fremantle to beat West Coast
And long shots:
Carlton to beat GWS
Gold Coast to beat Melbourne |
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