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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| BazBoy wrote: | Making the finals after 4 years in the wilderness will be an achievement
especially when from the start we lost Broomy and Goldie
Been a constant battle with players going down during season and others only now playing VFL
Yes a flag would be marvellous but building a side to be finalist,s for a decade be great |
Are you suggesting that losing Broomie and Goldie is the problem? Broomie and Goldie?????
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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AnthonyC 
Joined: 09 Aug 2002
Location: Melbourne, Victoria
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It is fraught with danger trying to predict why one position might be better than another to finish in the eight.
The double chance has proven to be the best option over a long period of time, it would be quite foolish (perhaps revolutionary!) to manufacture a result outside the top four based on some crystal ball expectations.
2002 should teach us that.
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Go Pies! |
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Cam 
Nick's BB Member #166
Joined: 10 May 2002
Location: Springvale
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Need at least one win over the next three weeks. Won't be easy.
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Get back on top. |
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The Boy Who Cried Wolf
Joined: 26 Sep 2013
Location: We prefer free speech - you know it's right
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| E wrote: | | The Boy Who Cried Wolf wrote: | | I dont look at it that way (and how would that put us in Perth if we were 4th and Richmond is 1st?). The way I see it is, whoever wins the GF this year is most likely going to beat Richmond on the G - if we're 4th, we can play them straight off.. and if we lose, learn from that and play them again in the GF (assuming we can beat all comers on the G, and personally I don't take too much from our recent loss to WC on the G - we'll be good vs them come finals). |
It we finish 4th and play Richmond in week 1, WCE finish second and beat someone else in week 1. Are you able to figure out where we play in week 3 of the finals in that scenario?
Ironically, if you want to make the GF and dont think you can beat the Eagles in Perth, you actually WANT to play them in week one. |
Fair enough E and your concern is valid although at the expense of a dbl chance highly unlikely (we'd be better playing against them away as is (2nd vs 3rd) and then the rest of our games at the G regardless of that outcome), although personally I'm confident we'll be able to beat anyone anywhere during the finals with a full strength team (or near full strength as long as we don't lose our structure) - the only concern I really see is Richmond - so hence I'd rather we take it head-on.
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All Aboard!! Choo Choo!!! |
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BazBoy
Joined: 11 Sep 2014
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Much has been made of Richmond and their consecutive wins at the G
Every win brings you closer to a loss
Melb in 50,s had a glorious reckord at G till 1958 GF
And Geelong in 53 was aiming for a 27th win in a row
And who put the fly in the ointment —-we did
There endeth the lesson
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I'm not arguing--just explaining why i am right |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| Is this a "yes or no" question? |
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Collingwood Crackerjack
Joined: 28 Jul 2008
Location: Canberra
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Some greats posts here, well done.
But I do think the cart of being put light years ahead of the Clydesdale to a certain degree, who knows who will end up where in this topsy turvy season?
Form has been pretty erratic for most sides as well, the Eagles looked like rubbish for a while there (I think the Dons beat them over there?) and most at that time would have relished the opportunity of getting a week 1 game against them (which at that stage seemed unlikely I'll grant you)
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"The last thing he expected WAS THE FIRST THING HE GOT!!!!!"
© Collingwood Crackerjack, 1992 |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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So much negative thinking! Let’s hope we play Richmond week 1, beat them and go straight through to a home prelim.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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eddiesmith 
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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| It’s funny, if we finish 4th it means we lost to Richmond today, if we show we can beat them then we will be top 3 and not play them week 1! |
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piedys
Heeeeeeere's Dyso!!!
Joined: 04 Sep 2003
Location: Resident Forum Psychopath since 2003
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| The Boy Who Cried Wolf wrote: | If we can't finish 2nd, it might be in our best interests to actually come 4th and play Richmond on the MCG (not being any where near full strength, today's result will be mostly irrelevant come finals time).
Conceivably we could end up playing them 4 times this year. |
Agreed; but let's get over the line today and next week first, before we start tanking for 4th spot lol!
A QF interstate loss to Weasels would see us at best, play tiggers in a PF. Not the desired result.
A QF loss to tiggers would see us at best, play Weasels in an interstate PF. Not the desired result.
A QF win would be just peachy, for mine.
Ah, one week at a time; I forgot...
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M I L L A N E 4 2 forever |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| AnthonyC wrote: | It is fraught with danger trying to predict why one position might be better than another to finish in the eight.
The double chance has proven to be the best option over a long period of time, it would be quite foolish (perhaps revolutionary!) to manufacture a result outside the top four based on some crystal ball expectations.
2002 should teach us that. |
This is why percentage doesn't matter by the way! 
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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| E wrote: | | AnthonyC wrote: | It is fraught with danger trying to predict why one position might be better than another to finish in the eight.
The double chance has proven to be the best option over a long period of time, it would be quite foolish (perhaps revolutionary!) to manufacture a result outside the top four based on some crystal ball expectations.
2002 should teach us that. |
This is why percentage doesn't matter by the way! |
If we win every game remaining, then % will be the difference between playing West Coast at the MCG or in Perth, but yeah tell us % doesn't matter... |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| eddiesmith wrote: | | E wrote: | | AnthonyC wrote: | It is fraught with danger trying to predict why one position might be better than another to finish in the eight.
The double chance has proven to be the best option over a long period of time, it would be quite foolish (perhaps revolutionary!) to manufacture a result outside the top four based on some crystal ball expectations.
2002 should teach us that. |
This is why percentage doesn't matter by the way! |
If we win every game remaining, then % will be the difference between playing West Coast at the MCG or in Perth, but yeah tell us % doesn't matter... |
If we are good enough to win the flag, we will beat them at either venue and if we are not good enough (as appears to be the case), we will not beat them no matter where we play them. Also, how do you know that losing or winning in week 1 matters in the quest to win a flag? Maybe Richmond get beaten in week 1 by GWS and we avoid Richmond in the finals altogether as they have to go to Perth for the prelim.?
This is why percentage doesnt matter. It doesn't mean there wont be different fact patterns that play out in the finals, but since winning GFs is all that matters, percentage doesn't matter. you are either good enough to win it all or you are not. if something so small as home field advantage makes such a difference that it changes your ability to win a GF, then you arent really good enough to win a GF.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| David wrote: | | So much negative thinking! Let’s hope we play Richmond week 1, beat them and go straight through to a home prelim. |
didn't we wish that in 2003 v Brisbane and didn't we actually get our wish?
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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5 from the wing on debut
Joined: 27 May 2016
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| E wrote: | | eddiesmith wrote: | | E wrote: | | AnthonyC wrote: | It is fraught with danger trying to predict why one position might be better than another to finish in the eight.
The double chance has proven to be the best option over a long period of time, it would be quite foolish (perhaps revolutionary!) to manufacture a result outside the top four based on some crystal ball expectations.
2002 should teach us that. |
This is why percentage doesn't matter by the way! |
If we win every game remaining, then % will be the difference between playing West Coast at the MCG or in Perth, but yeah tell us % doesn't matter... |
If we are good enough to win the flag, we will beat them at either venue and if we are not good enough (as appears to be the case), we will not beat them no matter where we play them. Also, how do you know that losing or winning in week 1 matters in the quest to win a flag? Maybe Richmond get beaten in week 1 by GWS and we avoid Richmond in the finals altogether as they have to go to Perth for the prelim.?
This is why percentage doesnt matter. It doesn't mean there wont be different fact patterns that play out in the finals, but since winning GFs is all that matters, percentage doesn't matter. you are either good enough to win it all or you are not. if something so small as home field advantage makes such a difference that it changes your ability to win a GF, then you arent really good enough to win a GF. |
We won the flag in 90.
Got smashed by the Weagles over there.
Beat them here. |
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