The draw so far has helped us to 2nd spot

[buzzlightyear]

Based on radio talkback discussions around the degree of overhyped and overrated teams, of course CFC was mentioned in those discussions. I thought I would have a look at how the draw has helped us or not.

I have looked at the % winning record of each club we have played at the corresponding round over each of the 16 rounds and compared this to the rest of top 8.

Not including Round 1, this is what I found

The teams we have played have had the lowest winning record of all other Top 8 teams. That is the average record (eg 2w -1loss = 66.7%) of all opponents we have played is 41%. This compares to the other teams as follows

MEL = 43%, HAW = 50%, PORT = 50%, WCE = 53%, GEE = 54%, SYD = 55%, RICH = 58%

For all the games we have won, our opponents winning record has been the lowest in the top 8, being 34%. This compares to the other teams as follows;

MEL = 35%, SYD = 44%, PORT = 48%, HAW = 48%, GEE = 52%, WCE = 54%, RICH = 61%

For all our remaining games, our opponents have an average winning record as at round 16 which is the highest compared to the Top 8, at 59%, this compares to the rest.

HAW = 38%, RICH = 45%, GEE = 46%, WCE = 50%, MEL = 50%, PORT = 53%, SYD = 54%.

Top 4 is a real challenge for us. Clearly we need to be playing at our best for longer in these games than we have for say the last 3 games. More of the form we showed against Melbourne and Adelaide is required.

However if we manage to strike form, get back our best players and reach the Top 4 at R23, well anything is possible in 2018...

First test is WCE. Go Pies....

[Pies2016]

Would we have won more games with a full list like Richmond has been afforded. Who knows ?
What I do know is that you can only beat who the AFL allocate you to play against.
You don’t get more points for beating better teams. You just look to make the 8 with some momentum and the rest looks after itself.

[Mugwump]

^ Sure Pies 2016, but I don’t think that’s Buzz’s point. While you can only beat who you play, if you play lesser sides it is easy to convince yourself that you are better than you are. The real test starts now. I think we all knew that, but it was interesting to see it quantified. Even then, I’d need a lot more data to know what the numbers actually signify, beyond the fact that we’ve had it relatively easy and it is now about to get relatively hard.

[What'sinaname]

Overhyped - not really. We have the same hype as any team who has won 7 in a row and is sitting 2nd. WCE had a tonne of hype after winning 9 in a row.

Overrated - probably, but the same people who overrate us now were underrating us in March when we were tipped to finish bottom 4.

[Pies2016]

[E]

i thought the only thing to look at is percentage. Ours is pretty high?

[Albert Parker]

Yes, we've had an easier draw. Designed that way given our finishing position last season. Won't be that way next season. That's why it is known as a fixture and is driven by equalisation.

[tbaker]

The problem I have with all the public analysis of how we've "failed" against the top 8 sides (which is generally what all the Collingwood haters are saying), is that the top 8 is constantly changing. Analysis needs to be made against all teams in contention for the top 8, which include Adelaide and Essendon, whom we both beat when they were hot. After all, those other contenders have ended up where they are because better teams, like Collingwood, have beat them and helped put them outside the top 8.

Also our losses to Richmond and Geelong had extenuating circumstances, being the horrid run of short day breaks following Anzac Day (and to some extent, injuries) - even Chris Scott acknowledged that Geelong got us under trying circumstances for us (I don't contend we'd beat Richmond without those issues, but I contend we would've done Geelong - we were in that game up to the last quarter, whilst we only had 2 on the bench).

And of course, we haven't yet played many of the other top sides - so our test of top 4 credentials is coming, starting this Sunday...

[MightyMagpie]

The commentary is fair to the extent that it is just the fact of who we have played.

The amazing bit is that we have done it with 156 games lost to injury and 122 of this games are best 22 players. No other team in the top 8 is close. Geelong has 91 best 22 games lost.

In context, our results have been incredible.

[Presti35]

If anything, I'd say a draw helped us win the 2010 Premiership.

[HAL]

How do you assume this statement holds true for me?

[Cam]

The draw 'helped' the dogs and the tigers to flags. May that business continue.

[Johnno75]

The difference this year is we are beating the teams we have played from the bottom 10. We have risen to the challenge against Adelaide, Essendon (Anzac Day) and Melbourne. If we can win 4 of our last 7 we should at worst finish with a home elimination final if not top 4 and hopefully we can get some of our injured players back and give September a decent crack.

Essentially it’s probably the perfect draw you want to be playing teams you are likely to meet in finals late in the season.

[Piesnchess]

[SwansWay]

I'm not a firm believer in teams being handed an easy draw based on ladder position. I mean the AFL can try to predict that based on the previous season's win/loss record but we all know that last year's middile-of-the-road team is this year's form side pushing for finals in September. How can we ever predict who will perform well? It's not an exact science. Who would've thought North Melbourne would be a tough opponent this year. Any struggling side that the AFL fixtured to play them twice didn't bet on playing a finals contender. Case in point.

The next 5-6 weeks will be a huge test for us but I get the sense that some of us are carping at the Pies, looking to poke holes and do a lot of fault-finding, not quite content to accept what we've been complaining about for the past four years has at the very least been remedied; that we're finally winning.