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The draw so far has helped us to 2nd spot

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Piethagoras' Theorem Taurus

the hypotenuse, is always a cakewalk


Joined: 29 May 2006


PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:47 am
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3 more, that's a commemorative dvd release!
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tbaker 



Joined: 02 Jul 2018
Location: Q19 Southern Stand MCG

PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:01 am
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K wrote:
Yes, the top four is much less important, and possibly a bit awkward for the first-week winners as a result.

Disagree that the top four is much less important. Perhaps not as advantageous for winners as in previous seasons (pre-bye round), but still very important to get the double-chance. Yes, a bit awkward for the 2 winners of the Q finals, but that then gives the advantage to the losers of the Q finals who get the home state final the following week. So still far better to finish top 4 (and very much important). Given our position with injuries, would be great to finish top 4, and use the first Q final to give some players returning from injury some much needed game time where the result isn't catastrophic (eg. Treloar, maybe Goldsack, plus the others who may be injured between now and then).

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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:52 pm
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the fuzz wrote:
Then Brisbane beats Hawthorn.....in Tassie. That was surely penciled as a Hawks win.
Don't underestimate our wins against 'lower' teams. We have beaten the teams we should have, that the fixture has presented. That is the sign of a good team.
But, huge test to come in the next month. We'll see.


We also now win games where we don't play well which is another test of a really good side.

I will say, this season is wide open and no reason we cant win it all. The entire top 7 as it stands right now (Rich, Coll, Port, Syd, GWS, Melb, WCE) look like they could win the flag if they get hot at the right time as well as a good run with injuries. I think Haw, Geel, North, Adel and Ess are a step behind the top 7.

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Raw Hammer 



Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter

PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:39 pm
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It certainly has.
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:46 pm
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It’s helped us back to 4th (or 5th, if the Swans win by 3 or 4 goals) today.
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piedys Taurus

Heeeeeeere's Dyso!!!


Joined: 04 Sep 2003
Location: Resident Forum Psychopath since 2003

PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:14 pm
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Well firstly, the "draw" [read: fixture] has been another abortion, like it is most years.
Until it is tabled that every team play each other once in the first 17 rounds, it will always be a debatable lump of unbalanced shit.
But that is a topic for another thread, if we haven't already done so in the past.

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Monco Matt Aries

Do it to THEM before THEY do it to YOU


Joined: 28 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:19 pm
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We finished bottom 6 last year didn't we? So our draw was always going to be one of the easiest, and we have taken advantage of that. Maybe it makes us appear to be better than we really are, I think most teams are pretenders really. But, we can get lucky in September regardless of how favourable our draw was in getting us there (if we get there). Next season will be different but I think we will be better prepared next year for a tougher draw.
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Raw Hammer 



Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter

PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:25 pm
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Maybe best scenario is to finish bottom part of top 8. Tough draw could be too tough for where we’re actually at as a team.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:08 pm
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tbaker wrote:
K wrote:
Yes, the top four is much less important, and possibly a bit awkward for the first-week winners as a result.

Disagree that the top four is much less important. Perhaps not as advantageous for winners as in previous seasons (pre-bye round), but still very important to get the double-chance. ...

I guess it depends on what we regard as "much less". Never has any team won from the bottom 4 pre-bye, and hardly any even made the preliminary final. The first year of the bye, a team from the bottom 4 won the premiership.
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Jezza Taurus

2023 PREMIERS!


Joined: 06 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:36 pm
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It's funny when I see people acting surprised by our soft draw. After finishing in the bottom 6, an easier draw was always going to be inevitable. Richmond were given the same benefit last year after a poor 2016 season.

We've done well to beat most sides in the bottom 10, but the question remains where we will sit at the end of the home and away season. I've always been adamant that we're not a top 4 team yet, but we've definitely shown enough to be a 5-8 team.

Many people are dismissive of our victories, but I think the wins against Adelaide, Melbourne and Essendon (last week) shouldn't be underestimated. All three sides were playing like top 8 sides when we encountered them.

A majority of people didn't expect us to play finals this year, so to have already accumulated 11 wins and be sitting in the top 4 after 16 games is an impressive feat and something most supporters would have taken at the start of the year.

Time will tell whether we can maintain our form as we face some tough opponents in the next few weeks. Today was a setback, but it wasn't a fatal blow.

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Cam Capricorn

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Joined: 10 May 2002
Location: Springvale

PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:46 pm
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Watch teams scramble to finish 13-14 this year. I got my eye on you Hawthorn and Dogs, Bombers might start to tank soon too.
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tbaker 



Joined: 02 Jul 2018
Location: Q19 Southern Stand MCG

PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:32 am
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Cam wrote:
Watch teams scramble to finish 13-14 this year. I got my eye on you Hawthorn and Dogs, Bombers might start to tank soon too.

Well, 14th-18th is already locked down, just jostling of positions can occur. Dogs don't need to tank to finish bottom 6; Hawks won't as they still have an easy run and still should make it. Essendon won't lose to Fremantle next week as they are still in contention, meaning Fremantle will likely have locked down 13th spot (and they're unlikely to give it up).

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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:21 am
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We are 1-5 vs teams in the top 10
We are 10-0 against teams in the bottom 8.

You can believe whatever you want to believe, but that is a damning stat right there.......

i wonder what our record was last year against top 10 teams? Perhaps all that we have done is gotten more consistent.

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didick 

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Joined: 17 Jun 2009
Location: Brisbane

PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:29 am
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^It's easy to look straight at the numbers. But as with individual player stats like disposals you have to look deeper.

If you consider we were up against the Giants in the last quarter but were decimated by injuries that whole game, then the stat becomes 2-4 against teams in the top 10. Then against Richmond we definitely gave them a run for their money, probably one of their toughest opponents for the better part of the year, and on their turf too. And even against the Cats we had a shocker and had injuries during the game and still weren't thumped.

Take those three games into consideration alone in the big picture and we're a pretty good competitor. I think we deserve to be where we are. The problem is now that with some tough games coming up, they could cloud our image as we have lost so many more players and we haven't got anywhere near our best team on the park.

So screw the supposed softness of the draw, the only thing holding us back this year is injuries. With a tougher draw and fewer injuries I believe we'd still be in the 8, quite comfortably.

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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:49 pm
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K wrote:
tbaker wrote:
K wrote:
Yes, the top four is much less important, and possibly a bit awkward for the first-week winners as a result.

Disagree that the top four is much less important. Perhaps not as advantageous for winners as in previous seasons (pre-bye round), but still very important to get the double-chance. ...

I guess it depends on what we regard as "much less". Never has any team won from the bottom 4 pre-bye, and hardly any even made the preliminary final. The first year of the bye, a team from the bottom 4 won the premiership.


i totally agree with the initial K on this one. The end of season bye has rerally given a team outside the top 4 every chance to win the flag. Of course, all it has done is made it possible, physically. They still need to be good enough.

I will say, this is another reason why percentage doesn't matter anymore.

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