2018-2019 EPL Discussion Thread

[K]

Old info on the technology:

"Hawk-Eye is the system already employed by other sports such as tennis and cricket, and will be tested in football for the 2013–14 Premier League season.

It uses a network of high-speed video cameras to track a ball’s position at a given time via triangulation. The trial set to take place in the Premier League will use seven cameras placed around the stadium.

Knowing the ball’s position, Hawk-Eye can tell when it’s crossed the goalmouth, and the software alerts the match officials via a radio transmission to the referee’s watch.
...

As used in tennis, Hawk-Eye has a margin of error of just 3.6 mm, better than the 3 cm required by football’s governing body, FIFA. However it needs to be able to see at least a quarter of the ball to work – not always possible if there are multiple legs in the way.

Hawk-Eye has previously been tested in the Hampshire Senior Cup final and at a friendly between England and Belgium at Wembley – although the system’s results were only used for evaluation, and the match officials didn’t have access to them."

http://www.physics.org/article-questions.asp?id=125


That margin of error of "3cm required by FIFA" would not have been good enough for either of the two Man. City goals talked about!

[K]

Liverpool overcome loss of Mohamed Salah to keep relentless title race alive...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2019/05/04/newcastle-vs-liverpool-premier-league-live-score-latest-updates/

"It was the night when Liverpool’s title challenge flickered for what must have seemed like an eternity for Jurgen Klopp and then, with time and options running out, burst back into life in mesmerising fashion with a goal from an understudy thrust centre-stage again.
...

This was an extraordinary game in which Newcastle came back twice, and one in which Origi was only thrown on because of an injury in the second half to Mohamed Salah, colliding with goalkeeper Martin Dubravka and carried off.
...

Klopp praised his assistant Peter Krawietz and his analysis team for coming up with the set-piece from which Virgil van Dijk opened the scoring in the 13th minute. The Dutchman running through the area unmarked in pursuit of a corner was enough for a collective wince on the Gallowgate End and he inevitably met Alexander-Arnold’s corner square on the forehead to direct it down past Dubravka. Jamaal Lascelles had lost Van Dijk in a crowd, tried to find him again and fallen over in the process."


The suggestion is that Atsu's goal for Newcastle may have cost Newcastle the game!! "Had Atsu not scored, had the penalty been awarded and Alexander-Arnold been dismissed then maybe the title race would look very different on Sunday morning", the point being that Newcastle would have scored the goal anyway (from the penalty for handball), with the bonus of having an opponent sent off.

[K]

FiveThirtyEight's prediction:

Man. City 75%
Liverpool 25%

[K]

Man. City 1-0 Leicester City

Another close shave for Man. City, but now they have only Brighton to overcome for the title.

Vincent Kompany: "I could hear people saying 'Don't shoot, don't shoot!'. I've not come this far in my career to have young players tell me when to shoot!

"For 15 years, I've told people I'll score one like that."

[K]

FiveThirtyEight's prediction:

Man. City 87%
Liverpool 13%

UK bookies' odds:

Man. City ~86%
Liverpool ~14%

[Jezza]

Latest Results:

Friday May 3 2019:
Everton 2-0 Burnley

Saturday May 4 2019:
AFC Bournemouth 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur
West Ham United 3-0 Southampton
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-0 Fulham
Cardiff City 2-3 Crystal Palace
Newcastle United 2-3 Liverpool

Sunday May 5 2019:
Chelsea 3-0 Watford
Huddersfield Town 1-1 Manchester United
Arsenal 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion

Monday May 6 2019:
Manchester City 1-0 Leicester City

The Ladder:
1. Man City 95 - Played 37
2. Liverpool 94 - Played 37
3. Chelsea 71 - Played 37
4. Tottenham 70 - Played 37
----------------------
5. Arsenal 67 - Played 37
6. Man Utd 66 - Played 37
7. Wolves 57 - Played 37
8. Everton 53 - Played 37
9. Leicester 51 - Played 37
10. Watford 50 - Played 37
11. West Ham 49 - Played 37
12. Crystal Palace 46 - Played 37
13. Bournemouth 45 - Played 37
14. Newcastle 42 - Played 37
15. Burnley 40 - Played 37
16. Southampton 38 - Played 37
17. Brighton 36 - Played 37
-----------------------
18. Cardiff 31 - Played 37
19. Fulham 26 - Played 37
20. Huddersfield 15 - Played 37

[Jezza]

Scenarios of winning the title:
- Manchester City (win) = Guaranteed a title regardless of Liverpool's result against Wolves
- Manchester City (draw) = Would need to rely on Liverpool drawing or losing against Wolves
- Manchester City (loss) = Liverpool would have to lose against Wolves

- Liverpool (win) = Manchester City need to lose or draw against Brighton
- Liverpool (draw) = Manchester City would have to lose by at least 4 goals against Brighton
- Liverpool (lose) = Manchester City will win the title.

Chelsea have qualified for a Champions League spot, with Spurs most likely to fill the last CL spot.

Cardiff City have been relegated.

[K]

Is this the most thrilling EPL & Champions League season ever? If not, where does it rank?

[Jezza]

Not sure where it ranks but it's up there.

I think Manchester City and Manchester United (2011/2012 season) battling it out was the most exciting finish to a season especially when City scored late to secure the title courtesy of Sergio Aguero. At one stage, everyone thought Manchester United would win the title, until Aguero scored a late winner against QPR.

Paul Merson's reaction - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=As2HAATNILs
Sergio Aguero's goal - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGhYIX_Vs5I

Another exciting title finish was before the PL era but in 1989 with Arsenal and Liverpool. Arsenal defeated Liverpool 2-0 on the final day of the season at Anfield to secure the title for the first time in 18 years with an injury time goal included. Arsenal needed to win by two goals in order to secure the title. Both sides finished with 89 points and a +37 goal difference.

Arsenal's title winner at Anfield - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAZK5PpOZOQ

In saying that, I've never seen two sides comprehensively dominate as they have this season with Manchester City and Liverpool.

[Jezza]

Final Day Matches:

Sunday May 12 2019:
Brighton & Hove Albion v Manchester City - 15:00
Burnley v Arsenal - 15:00
Crystal Palace v AFC Bournemouth - 15:00
Fulham v Newcastle United - 15:00
Leicester City v Chelsea - 15:00
Liverpool v Wolverhampton Wanderers - 15:00
Manchester United v Cardiff City - 15:00
Southampton v Huddersfield Town - 15:00
Tottenham Hotspur v Everton - 15:00
Watford v West Ham United - 15:00

All local times.

[K]

FiveThirtyEight's final predictions:

Liverpool (v. Wolverhampton) W 85%, D 12%, L 4%.
Man. City (v. Brighton) W 85%, D 11%, L 3%.

For the title,
Man. City 88%
Liverpool 12%.


The only way a play-off match will happen appears to be if Liverpool draws and Man. City loses by four goals.

[K]

This is the greatest EPL title race of all time

P. Hayward, Telegraph London

"The numbers in this title race have been more like cricket scores. A contest where the lead has changed 32 times has produced 178 goals by Manchester City and Liverpool and 189 points for the pair in the first season when two teams passed the 90 mark.

But the stats only partly convey the theatrical intensity of a battle which, for only the eighth time since the Premier League’s formation in 1992, goes down to the last kick.
...

Together, City and Liverpool have amassed 60 wins from 74 games, 40 clean sheets and 48,820 passes. At Brighton, City are pursuing their 14th straight win.
...

Spectacularly, Premier League power and wealth has become the lens again for Monday morning’s 38th round of games. Talent and desire have made all this possible but money has been indispensable.

In the 2018-19 season, gross spending by Premier League clubs was £1.4 billion ($2.6 billion), and £261 million was burned on agents fees.

Liverpool led the way, palming £43.7 million to middlemen in a summer when they signed Alisson Becker, Fabinho, Naby Keita and Xherdan Shaqiri to add to the colossal central defensive speed and strength of Virgil van Dijk.

City meanwhile have reaped the benefit of even greater, earlier investment.
...

All that remains is for the injustice of second place to be meted out to one of two great English teams who made this Premier League season an inspiration and a privilege to watch. There will be real and virtual champions."

[K]

HT: Bighton 1-2 Man. City;
Liverpool 1-0 Wolves.

Brighton scored first, but Man. City hit back in under 2 minutes and went ahead 10 minutes later. They are now a half of football away from the title.

Google's live win probability: Man City 87%, draw 10%, Brighton 3%;
Liverpool 83%, draw 14%,Wolves 4%.

[Jezza]

I think City's one goal away from winning the title.

I can't see Brighton kicking three goals otherwise.

[Jezza]

City 3-1 up now.

The title is almost a certainty now.