2018-2019 EPL Discussion Thread

[K]

Bookies' odds following Liverpool's important win over Tottenham:

Man. City ~66%
Liverpool ~34%

FiveThirtyEight's predictions:

Man. City 59%
Liverpool 41%

[K]

"Liverpool have snatched a last-gasp winner as they beat Tottenham 2-1 to give themselves a massive boost in their hopes of a first English Premier League title since 1990.

Mo Salah’s 89th-minute header rebounded from the hands of Tottenham goalkeeper Hugo Lloris and off Toby Alderweireld to earn victory for Juergen Klopp’s side at Anfield on Sunday."

(AAP)

[K]

Man City's run home looks harder than Liverpool's...

[Jezza]

Latest Results:

Saturday March 30 2019:
Fulham 0-2 Manchester City
Brighton 0-1 Hove Albion v Southampton
Burnley 2-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Crystal Palace 2-0 Huddersfield Town
Leicester City 2-0 AFC Bournemouth
Manchester United 2-1 Watford
West Ham United 0-2 Everton

Sunday March 31 2019:
Cardiff City 1-2 Chelsea
Liverpool 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur

Monday April 1 2019:
Arsenal 2-0 Newcastle United

The Ladder:
1. Liverpool 79 - Played 32
2. Man City 77 - Played 31
3. Arsenal 63 - Played 31
4. Tottenham 61 - Played 31
----------------------
5. Man Utd 61 - Played 31
6. Chelsea 60 - Played 31
7. Wolves 44 - Played 31
8. Leicester 44 - Played 32
9. Everton 43 - Played 32
10. Watford 43 - Played 31
11. West Ham 42 - Played 32
12. Bournemouth 38 - Played 32
13. Crystal Palace 36 - Played 31
14. Newcastle 35 - Played 32
15. Brighton 33 - Played 30
16. Southampton 33 - Played 31
17. Burnley 33 - Played 32
-----------------------
18. Cardiff 28 - Played 31
19. Fulham 17 - Played 32
20. Huddersfield 14 - Played 32

Huddersfield Town have been officially relegated.

[Jezza]

Mid-Week Matches:

Tuesday April 2 2019:
Watford v Fulham - 19:45
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester United - 19:45

Wednesday April 3 2019:
Chelsea v Brighton & Hove Albion - 19:45
Manchester City v Cardiff City - 19:45
Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace - 19:45

All local times.

[K]

Bookies' odds following Man City's win over Cardiff City:

Man. City ~67%
Liverpool ~33%

(Pretty much unchanged -- there are small variations among the different bookies.)

FiveThirtyEight's predictions:

Man. City 60%
Liverpool 40%

[Jezza]

Mid Week Results:

Tuesday April 2 2019:
Watford 4-1 Fulham
Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 Manchester United

Wednesday April 3 2019:
Chelsea 3-0 Brighton & Hove Albion
Manchester City 2-0 Cardiff City
Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 Crystal Palace

The Ladder:
1. Man City 80 - Played 32
2. Liverpool 79 - Played 32
3. Tottenham 64 - Played 32
4. Arsenal 63 - Played 31
----------------------
5. Chelsea 63 - Played 32
6. Man Utd 61 - Played 32
7. Wolves 47 - Played 32
8. Watford 46 - Played 32
9. Leicester 44 - Played 32
10. Everton 43 - Played 32
11. West Ham 42 - Played 32
12. Bournemouth 38 - Played 32
13. Crystal Palace 36 - Played 32
14. Newcastle 35 - Played 32
15. Brighton 33 - Played 31
16. Southampton 33 - Played 31
17. Burnley 33 - Played 32
-----------------------
18. Cardiff 28 - Played 32
19. Fulham 17 - Played 33
20. Huddersfield 14 - Played 32

Fulham have been officially relegated.

[Jezza]

Weekend Matches:

Friday April 5 2019:
Southampton v Liverpool - 20:00

Saturday April 6 2019:
AFC Bournemouth v Burnley - 15:00
Huddersfield Town v Leicester City - 15:00
Newcastle United v Crystal Palace - 15:00

Sunday April 7 2019:
Everton v Arsenal - 14:05

Monday April 8 2019:
Chelsea v West Ham United - 20:00

All local times.

[K]

Liverpool live to fight another day:

"With the game locked at 1-1, Liverpool laid siege to the Southampton goal but it was Salah, who had not scored for eight games, who provided the moment of magic they desperately required in the 80th minute, racing away to score a majestic solo goal.

It was Salah's 50th Premier League goal for Liverpool and six minutes later Henderson, on as a substitute, wrapped it up with a close-range finish."
(Reuters)

[K]

Bookies' odds:

Man. City ~61%
Liverpool ~39%

FiveThirtyEight's predictions:

Man. City 57%
Liverpool 43%

[eureka]

arsenal good chance of top 4 finish this time around I think they will just hold on and finish 4th

[K]

FiveThirtyEight's predictions have changed a bit:

Man. City 55%
Liverpool 45%

It's now getting closer to a coin toss again.

(The bookies' odds don't seem to have tightened, though.)


The fat lady seems to have sung in most other major football leagues:

La Liga: Barcelona > 99%

Bundesliga: Bayern Munich 87%; Dormund 13%

Serie A: Juventus > 99%

Ligue 1: PSG > 99%

Primeira Liga: Benfica 58%; Porto 42%


The psychology and sociology of following football must be totally different in those leagues.

[Jezza]

Latest Results:

Friday April 5 2019:
Southampton 1-3 Liverpool

Saturday April 6 2019:
AFC Bournemouth 1-3 Burnley
Huddersfield Town 1-4 Leicester City
Newcastle United 0-1 Crystal Palace

Sunday April 7 2019:
Everton 1-0 Arsenal

Monday April 8 2019:
Chelsea 2-0 West Ham United

The Ladder:
1. Liverpool 82 - Played 33
2. Man City 80 - Played 32
3. Chelsea 66 - Played 33
4. Tottenham 64 - Played 32
----------------------
5. Arsenal 63 - Played 32
6. Man Utd 61 - Played 32
7. Leicester 47 - Played 33
8. Wolves 47 - Played 32
9. Everton 46 - Played 33
10. Watford 46 - Played 32
11. West Ham 42 - Played 33
12. Crystal Palace 39 - Played 33
13. Bournemouth 38 - Played 33
14. Burnley 36 - Played 33
15. Newcastle 35 - Played 33
16. Brighton 33 - Played 31
17. Southampton 33 - Played 32
-----------------------
18. Cardiff 28 - Played 32
19. Fulham 17 - Played 33
20. Huddersfield 14 - Played 33

[Jezza]

Weekend Matches:

Friday April 12 2019:
Leicester City v Newcastle United - 20:00

Saturday April 13 2019:
Tottenham Hotspur v Huddersfield Town - 12:30
Brighton & Hove Albion v AFC Bournemouth - 15:00
Burnley v Cardiff City - 15:00
Fulham v Everton - 15:00
Southampton v Wolverhampton Wanderers - 15:00
Manchester United v West Ham United - 17:30

Sunday April 14 2019:
Crystal Palace v Manchester City - 14:05
Liverpool v Chelsea - 16:30

Monday April 15 2019:
Watford v Arsenal - 20:00

[K]

Bookies' odds after Liverpool's important win over Chelsea:

Man. City ~55%
Liverpool ~45%

FiveThirtyEight's predictions:

Man. City 52%
Liverpool 48%

This is the tightest it's been in the last two months that we've been watching the odds. Man. City's next two games may be the most important of their season. FiveThirtyEight gives them 71% & 60% chances of winning those. 71% feels rather high against a team that beat them a week ago.