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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:58 pm
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^

Leg speed is a weapon no doubt, but so is being able to get where the footy is.

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AN_Inkling 



Joined: 06 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:11 pm
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Two counter narrative facts for us this year:

Avg Goals: 14.2 (3rd) - last year 11th

And a rubbish stat but some like it:
DE%: 74.5 (1st) - last year 7th

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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:47 pm
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AN_Inkling wrote:
Two counter narrative facts for us this year:

Avg Goals: 14.2 (3rd) - last year 11th

And a rubbish stat but some like it:
DE%: 74.5 (1st) - last year 7th


I think you and I have agreed to disagree about D E but I would have thought that if the team has improved and our D E has improved, then perhaps there is a correlation between the two ..... just saying.
A high D E doesn’t mean anything to clubs who can’t keep the ball in their own forward line.
It means a lot to Collingwood because when we get the ball into our forward line, courtesy of our high D E %, we also have the weapons to score on the back of that entry.
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AN_Inkling 



Joined: 06 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:02 am
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^^A team can be good with high DE and low DE. Whether a high DE is good is completely contextual and the stat is therefore pointless to show whether a team is playing well.

Another example:
We were 10% worse than Melbourne for DE. The main reason why? We were breaking lines and attacking through the middle. We also had many more inside 50s (always the lowest DE kick). Melbourne were forced wide and indirect. This is not better football but it does result in better DE.

And on the individual player level, the very best players are mainly under 70% DE for the year. This is mostly about adventurous and attacking play. Again, players who kick the ball into the 50 a lot (like De Goey on Monday) will usually not have a high DE. Yet, it is desirable to enter the 50, just another case where low DE does not correlate to worse play or worse kicking. The best way to have a high DE is to chip the ball around your backine (it's why the Saints are 2nd best), far from a winning strategy.

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Jezza Taurus

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Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:27 am
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In addition to earlier stats I posted.

Collingwood = 6
- 1). Jordan De Goey (6) v St Kilda = Round 9 2018
- 2). Will Hoskin-Elliott (6) v Fremantle = Round 11 2018
- 3). Josh Thomas (5) v Carlton = Round 3 2018
- 4). Jaidyn Stephenson (5) v Adelaide = Round 4 2018
- 5). Jordan De Goey (5) v Brisbane = Round 7 2018
- 6). Mason Cox (5) v Melbourne = Round 12 2018
Melbourne = 6
- 1). Tom McDonald (6) v Collingwood = Round 12 2018
- 2). Jesse Hogan (5) v Brisbane = Round 2 2018
- 3). Tom McDonald (5) v Gold Coast = Round 8 2018
- 4). Jake Melksham (5) v Carlton = Round 9 2018
- 5). Jesse Hogan (5) v Adelaide = Round 10 2018
- 6). Jesse Hogan (5) v Western Bulldogs = Round 11 2018
Richmond = 4
- 1). Dustin Martin (6) v Brisbane = Round 4 2018
- 2). Josh Caddy (6) v St Kilda = Round 6 2018
- 3). Dustin Martin (5) v Adelaide = Round 2 2018
- 4). Jack Riewoldt (5) v West Coast = Round 9 2018
North Melbourne = 3
- 1). Ben Brown (6) v St Kilda = Round 2 2018
- 2). Ben Brown (5) v Carlton = Round 4 2018
- 3). Ben Brown (5) v GWS = Round 9 2018
West Coast = 3
- 1). Jack Darling (6) v Richmond = Round 9 2018
- 2). Josh Kennedy (6) v St Kilda = Round 11 2018
- 3). Josh Kennedy (5) v Gold Coast = Round 4 2018
Adelaide = 2
- 1). Josh Jenkins (5) v Richmond = Round 2 2018
- 2). Mitch McGovern (5) v Carlton = Round 7 2018
Carlton = 2
- 1). Charlie Curnow (5) v Richmond = Round 1 2018
- 2). Matthew Wright (5) v Richmond = Round 1 2018
GWS = 2
- 1). Jeremy Cameron (6) v Western Bulldogs = Round 1 2018
- 2). Jeremy Cameron (6) v Gold Coast = Round 12 2018
Hawthorn = 2
- 1). Luke Breust (5) v North Melbourne = Round 5 2018
- 2). Jack Gunston (5) v Sydney = Round 8 2018
St Kilda = 2
- 1). Jade Gresham (6) v Richmond = Round 10 2018
- 2). Tim Membrey (6) v West Coast = Round 11 2018
Sydney = 2
- 1). Lance Franklin [8] v West Coast = Round 1 2018
- 2). Ben Ronke (7) v Hawthorn = Round 8 2018
Brisbane = 1
- 1). Dayne Beams (5) v North Melbourne = Round 11 2018
Fremantle = 1
- 1). Michael Walters (5) v Western Bulldogs = Round 5 2018
Geelong = 1
- 1). Daniel Menzel (5) v St Kilda = Round 4 2018
Gold Coast = 1
- 1). Tom Lynch [8] v Carlton = Round 2 2018
Port Adelaide = 1
- 1). Robbie Gray (6) v Adelaide = Round 8 2018
Essendon = 0
Western Bulldogs = 0


To be the only team to have 5 different players kick 5 goals or more in a match is an impressive feat. I'm in awe of the way we've turned around our forward line woes.

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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:01 am
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AN_Inkling wrote:
^^A team can be good with high DE and low DE. Whether a high DE is good is completely contextual and the stat is therefore pointless to show whether a team is playing well.

Another example:
We were 10% worse than Melbourne for DE. The main reason why? We were breaking lines and attacking through the middle. We also had many more inside 50s (always the lowest DE kick). Melbourne were forced wide and indirect. This is not better football but it does result in better DE.

And on the individual player level, the very best players are mainly under 70% DE for the year. This is mostly about adventurous and attacking play. Again, players who kick the ball into the 50 a lot (like De Goey on Monday) will usually not have a high DE. Yet, it is desirable to enter the 50, just another case where low DE does not correlate to worse play or worse kicking. The best way to have a high DE is to chip the ball around your backine (it's why the Saints are 2nd best), far from a winning strategy.


Ok, I now get where your coming from and I know where I have been coming from. I now concede that D E purely as a winning indicator, isn’t reliable in determining the victor. There aren’t many single stats that are and if there was, the game would be a lot easier to coach.
My angle is that D E is extremely important as a team KPI ( as opposed to a game day measurement ). Every club is absolutely out to improve their D E as a team collective. That’s what 6 months of preseason is for.
I agree the Saints are rubbish even with the second highest D E BUT they would be worse again if their D E was less because they would be giving the ball up even more in their back half.

Speaking of stats and slightly off topic, C D recently reviewed every stat in their 2018 data and came up with the one single stat that would most likely determine the winner of the game ( at 86.7 % likelihood )
That information becomes a great tool in understanding where the game is headed.
And that stat > METRES GAINED. The team that returns the highest metres gained in the game, wins that match 86.7 % of the time in 2018 ( end of round 11 )
If you want to win the modern game, you need to move the ball FORWARD and QUICKLY. And if you can do that with a high D E, that’s even better 😉
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:18 am
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^ That's interesting, P16. I'll probably quote & respond in the stats thread...

[And may quote & respond to DE discussion in the DE thread...]
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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:43 am
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K wrote:
^ That's interesting, P16. I'll probably quote & respond in the stats thread...

[And may quote & respond to DE discussion in the DE thread...]


Cheers K. My only concern is that any Pies player who fails to return over 200 metres + in any future game he plays, will be eternally chastised for life on here. 😉
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Jezza Taurus

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Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:08 pm
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Interesting article about the statistical nature of our forward line this year.

http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2018-06-15/the-pies-goal-glut

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:37 pm
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^ "The record number of Collingwood players kicking five or more goals in a season is seven. That record was set in 1983 and equalled in 1989."

Who were the seven in 1989? Can we guess them without looking it up?
For starters, let me guess: B. Taylor, P. Daicos, G. Wright ...
Who else? I'm now re-thinking the Wright guess. Maybe that was '87. By '89, I guess he'd re-emerged as a wingman, no longer a forward pocket...

Is it easier or harder to guess the seven in 1983?
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RudeBoy 



Joined: 28 Nov 2005


PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:04 pm
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K wrote:
^ "The record number of Collingwood players kicking five or more goals in a season is seven. That record was set in 1983 and equalled in 1989."

Who were the seven in 1989? Can we guess them without looking it up?
For starters, let me guess: B. Taylor, P. Daicos, G. Wright ...
Who else? I'm now re-thinking the Wright guess. Maybe that was '87. By '89, I guess he'd re-emerged as a wingman, no longer a forward pocket...

Is it easier or harder to guess the seven in 1983?


I seem to remember Craig Starcevich kicking a bag one day round about that time - down at Windy Hill I think.
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TurkishPie 



Joined: 06 Sep 2005
Location: Abbotsford

PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:20 pm
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K wrote:
^ "The record number of Collingwood players kicking five or more goals in a season is seven. That record was set in 1983 and equalled in 1989."

Who were the seven in 1989? Can we guess them without looking it up?
For starters, let me guess: B. Taylor, P. Daicos, G. Wright ...
Who else? I'm now re-thinking the Wright guess. Maybe that was '87. By '89, I guess he'd re-emerged as a wingman, no longer a forward pocket...

I would guess Barwick or Mckeown
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:38 pm
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Mike Richardson: https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/1983/040719830730.html

Richo also kicked a bag of 7 later that year: https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/1983/041519830827.html

Mark Williams: https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/1983/041419830514.html

Peter Daicos: https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/1983/041519830604.html

(Shane Morwood also kicked 5 that day)

(and, as you'd expect, Daics did it again later in the year): https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/1983/041519830827.html

Craig Davis did it in consecutive weeks:

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/1983/030419830625.html

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/1983/040519830702.html


And Weideman kicked 5 (from 6 kicks) in round 1: https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/1983/041119830326.html

In 1989, Daicos, Manson, McKeown, BT (5 times, including a 9), Graham Wright, Heath Shepherd and Athas the Great.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:42 pm
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^ You've listed only 6 for 1983!
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:22 pm
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Sorry, got bored. The seventh in 83 must have been Tony Russell against the Swans, the day John Annear won his Brownlow.(!)
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