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35forever
"I feel sick - dada dada dada da"
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Location: Physical=Sunshine Coast -- Mental=Vic Park
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| RudeBoy wrote: | Forget about Lynch and 2019.
Seriously folks, approaching September if we are in the 8 and have Moore, Elliott, Wells, Fasolo, Varcoe and Adams all up and firing, we can beat any team. Seriously, we would shit on Richmond.
We can win the Flag this year.  |
Totally & utterly agree!
We would have beaten Richmond if the days between games were reversed, OR if the umpiring hadn't been ridiculous, OR if we hadn't lost 2 guys in the last.
As it is we have 2 blokes to cover Reid (Moore & Wills,), & 2 to cover Aish, (Elliot & Daics). All have been firing in the Magoos, except Moore, but he'd be fine. We DO have great depth, we DO have every aspect covered (kicking marking, speed, height, you name it) Our list when confident - & I've been saying it for years - is the best in the game. And this year we seem to have a fair bit more confidence, and yes, I'm happy to attribute some of this to Buckley. He still owes us 2/3 flags, & 7 years is WAY too long to come good, but I DO see some improvement in his game day approach this year.
Lets hope it continues. I think it will, and
Are u ready for this?
I predict we'll be top 2 by the bye.
No shit!
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-me, 2010
"The pies are going to the big dance!"-P.Daicos 2010
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| Skids wrote: | | Skids wrote: | I see 3 sides; west coast, hawthorn & norf, that won't be in the 8 in a few months.
If we happen to miss the top four, it'll only be just.
The ladder after 6 weeks, is, just that |
Look at these sides next 10 weeks.
West coast will win 2, maybe 3.
North will win 4 maybe 5
Hawks will win 5
They're out!
Who wants it! |
While we’ve been good, I don’t see a reason to think we’re ahead of any of those teams right now.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Piethagoras' Theorem 
the hypotenuse, is always a cakewalk
Joined: 29 May 2006
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Percentage is going to be very important this year
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Formally frankiboy and FrankieGoesToCollingwood. |
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Geek
geek
Joined: 06 Apr 2006
Location: Jacana
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| FrankieGoesToCollingwood wrote: | | Percentage is going to be very important this year |
And queue E in 5, 4, 3...... |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| I'm not sure if it means anything, but apart from the Eagles and Tigers who have won all 5, the Crows are the only other club beside Collingwood to have won 4 of the last 5 games. |
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Cam 
Nick's BB Member #166
Joined: 10 May 2002
Location: Springvale
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10 of the top 11 play each other this week. Looms as a big 8 shaper.
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Get back on top. |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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| RudeBoy wrote: | | I'm not sure if it means anything, but apart from the Eagles and Tigers who have won all 5, the Crows are the only other club beside Collingwood to have won 4 of the last 5 games. |
...and the Crows lost to us by 48 points 
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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Well this is interesting....
It’s the “Round 7 Rule”, and while many in football prefer to sneer in the face of history whilst mouthing platitudes about creating their own, it’s a measurement which has been on the mark far more often than not.
In a nutshell, it says that if you’re not in the top eight at this stage of the season, your chances of being there at the end are limited
https://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/afl/2018/05/07/afl-round-7-wrap/
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| Skids wrote: | Well this is interesting....
It’s the “Round 7 Rule”, and while many in football prefer to sneer in the face of history whilst mouthing platitudes about creating their own, it’s a measurement which has been on the mark far more often than not.
In a nutshell, it says that if you’re not in the top eight at this stage of the season, your chances of being there at the end are limited
https://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/afl/2018/05/07/afl-round-7-wrap/ |
It was wrong last year. After 7 games the Swans had lost 6 but still made the finals. |
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Jpies
Joined: 09 Apr 2016
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| RudeBoy wrote: | | Skids wrote: | Well this is interesting....
It’s the “Round 7 Rule”, and while many in football prefer to sneer in the face of history whilst mouthing platitudes about creating their own, it’s a measurement which has been on the mark far more often than not.
In a nutshell, it says that if you’re not in the top eight at this stage of the season, your chances of being there at the end are limited
https://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/afl/2018/05/07/afl-round-7-wrap/ |
It was wrong last year. After 7 games the Swans had lost 6 but still made the finals. |
I think 7 rounds is a good amount of time to get a sense of where teams are at.
However, given that places 6 - 11 on the ladder are occupied by teams with the same number of wins, clearly any of those teams are as good a chance as each other. For what it's worth, I don't see any of the teams in the next bracket down (Freo, GC, WB) making the 8. I also don't see the teams immediately above (GWS, Hawks) not making the 8. So in that sense, the 8 looks somewhat settled.
The teams in our bracket (separated by percentage) are: Geelong, North, Sydney, Collingwood, Melbourne, Port. My prediction is that those teams will finish in the following order:
Geelong
Collingwood
North
Port
Sydney
Melbourne
So we play finals |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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| qldmagpie67 wrote: | According to champion data the teams in order (calculated by best 22 available combined ranking points)
Top 8
Richmond
GWS
Sydney
Geelong
West Coast
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
Hawthorne
Collingwood was ranked 11th which sounds bad but you have to remember champion data to a evolving system of 40-50 games. We don't get any credit points for Moore Wells Elliott Adams all of who are top 100 ranked players.
We also have players like Brown Scharenberg Stephenson Murray who haven't earned enough ranking points yet to really matter as they haven't played enough games.
Separately if we use this years points gained only we are currently ranked the 5th best performed team which is likely closer to were we should be
I'm wanting too see were we actually sit at the bye because history tell us that there isn't generally more than 1 or 2 teams who drop out at that point of time |
Not quite correct unless CD is using something materially different to what CD do for AFL Player Ratings. I’m pretty sure they are the same thing.
Official AFL Player Ratings are based on a player's past 40 games, so it is only where they have fewer than 40 career games that they aren’t “fully valued” for this purpose.
Our top 100 guys are Pendles (600.1), Treloar, Grundy, Sidebottom, Howe, Adams and Crisp (425.1).
Of the guys excluded for injury (I assume) that you say are top 100 only Adams is. WHE has 291.1, Wells 268, Moore 232.4 and Adams 447.1 accumulated points.i
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All We Can Be |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| RudeBoy wrote: | | Skids wrote: | Well this is interesting....
It’s the “Round 7 Rule”, and while many in football prefer to sneer in the face of history whilst mouthing platitudes about creating their own, it’s a measurement which has been on the mark far more often than not.
In a nutshell, it says that if you’re not in the top eight at this stage of the season, your chances of being there at the end are limited
https://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/afl/2018/05/07/afl-round-7-wrap/ |
It was wrong last year. After 7 games the Swans had lost 6 but still made the finals. |
True rude, but I was very surprised by this bit....
In 17 completed AFL seasons since 2001, there’s been a total of just 21 changes to the top eight as it stood at this point and the start of the finals, an average of little more than one team per season.
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| Describe your surroundings. |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| HAL wrote: | | Describe your surroundings. |
Lotsa red dirt and bloody hot Hal.
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| I do not understand. |
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