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Sidey firms from 100/1 in Brownlow markets.

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Skids Cancer

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:37 pm
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dalyc wrote:
Skids wrote:
dalyc wrote:
Donny wrote:
Many did. Smile

For a player's odds to shorten from 100/1 to 40/1, means plenty got on.


Not necessarily. Money moves markets but so does information. Bookies weren’t blind and deaf and they aren’t a charity. They saw Sidey’s form and that would have contributed to the move in price just as much as bets taken.


The Only thing that moves markets is money. If bookies went with their heart (as you're suggesting) they'd be gambling and they don't do that.
Their markets are framed so they can't lose.


Ok so consider this. In October, a Horse is 50-1 to win the Melbourne Cup. He then wins the Caulfield Cup running away by 4 lengths. I can guarantee you the a minute after the race the horse would be 10-1 or shorter for Melbourne Cup without a bet being taken. How do I know this? Because I’ve worked in the gambling industry for 20 years.

Yes, money moves markets but so does information.

It’s why bookies employ various people to gather information and use this info to gain an edge.


You're stating the obvious there. That's why the Melbourne Cup market is suspended for a period leading into, and after the Caulfield Cup.

If nobody backs that winner (it might run a 2400m but not a 3200m) it'll drift straight back out, hence, money moves markets.

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dalyc Scorpio



Joined: 02 Mar 2005


PostPosted: Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:36 pm
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Stating the obvious. Yes thanks.
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RudeBoy 



Joined: 28 Nov 2005


PostPosted: Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:06 pm
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I reckon Sidey and Grundy will be taking votes off each other every single week.
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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:08 pm
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Every one?
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Donny Aries

Formerly known as MAGFAN8.


Joined: 04 Aug 2002
Location: Toonumbar NSW Australia

PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:53 am
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Dalyc, You're comparing apples to oranges.

The AFL or the betting firms don't have bookies at games like Racing has.

Entirely different animal.

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Donny Aries

Formerly known as MAGFAN8.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:01 am
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Interesting.

Martin has firmed ($3.25) and Mitchell ($5.00) has drifted a touch, to be vying for second favourite, with Fyfe, at $5.50

Sidey remains at $34 but I think our game has to be added. Treloar also should shorten, from his pre game $67, as should Grundy.

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Donny Aries

Formerly known as MAGFAN8.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:07 pm
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After yesterday's match.

Sidey's in to $21.

Treloar in to $41

Grundy in to $51

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Skids Cancer

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:17 pm
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Sportsbet has Sidey @ 33's, Treloar has drifted to 40's (backed him preseason @ 33's) and they have Grundy at 40's.
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dalyc Scorpio



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:25 pm
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Donny wrote:
Dalyc, You're comparing apples to oranges.

The AFL or the betting firms don't have bookies at games like Racing has.

Entirely different animal.


You don’t think sports bookies employ analysts and programmers to crunch numbers to gain an edge? They all do.

Even the dumbest bookie would have re-framed their market when Steele was 100-1 and tearing it up. Good on those who got the 100’s but it wasn’t money alone that shortened him up.

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Donny Aries

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:25 pm
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Yes, Skids. Forgot to mention, my numbers are from Crown.

Other than Sidey, Fyfe is the big mover - firming in to $5. I got on him @ 10/1, a couple of weeks ago.

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piedys Taurus

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Joined: 04 Sep 2003
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:31 pm
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Yet still no drop in our odds for the flag?
Roll the Tiggers, and the shit will hit the fan!

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Pies4shaw Leo

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Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:28 pm
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And now he's one of two Collingwood "mid-year All-Australians" in the team selected by "staff writers" on afl.com.au (and ahead, it should be noted, of Selwood and Dangerfield, amongst others): http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-06-07/who-makes-our-midseason-all-australian-team

The other is Tom Phillips.

For those who are interested, a 50-strong squad was identified earlier in the week. In addition to those 2, it included Grundy, Howe and Treloar: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-06-06/your-clubs-mid-season-all-australians

Just quietly, I don't think Fyfe will present too much Brownlow competition for Sidey this year.
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Donny Aries

Formerly known as MAGFAN8.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:28 pm
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Crown, today.

Sidey $34.

Treloar and Grundy $41.

Best roughies: Pendles $101. Phillips $151.

------------------------

Mitchell is the hot fave, @ $2.75

Martin and Mcrae are next, on $8. Then Gawn, on $10 and Cotchin, on $11.

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qldmagpie67 



Joined: 18 Dec 2008


PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:30 pm
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Pies4shaw wrote:
And now he's one of two Collingwood "mid-year All-Australians" in the team selected by "staff writers" on afl.com.au (and ahead, it should be noted, of Selwood and Dangerfield, amongst others): http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-06-07/who-makes-our-midseason-all-australian-team

The other is Tom Phillips.

For those who are interested, a 50-strong squad was identified earlier in the week. In addition to those 2, it included Grundy, Howe and Treloar: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-06-06/your-clubs-mid-season-all-australians

Just quietly, I don't think Fyfe will present too much Brownlow competition for Sidey this year.


A fair representation for us but considering that these writers don't actually select the actual side when it counts then really it's just an opinion based article
Interesting you forgot to mention that one of your all time favourites who is no longer a pie in Dayne Beams made the list along with 3 other lions
Pendles could consider himself unlucky not to get named IMO
As for Fyfe he's going to be leading the vote at some stage but it won't make any difference now
As for Sidey's chances to win Charlie I think the likes of Phillips Grundy Howe Pendles Trelaor will consistently take votes off him along with players like JDG Stephenson Thomas and alike when they have the best game winning performances
We have to many players who are playing well most weeks to have a winner among our squad
Sidey will likley get close to his career high voting from last season and may beat that number (14 wasn't it ?) but won't gain enough votes to win it
IMO Grundy should have polled the most votes by a pie at this stage of the season but he seems not to attract to much attention in voting for some reason
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:59 pm
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qldmagpie67 wrote:
Pies4shaw wrote:
And now he's one of two Collingwood "mid-year All-Australians" in the team selected by "staff writers" on afl.com.au (and ahead, it should be noted, of Selwood and Dangerfield, amongst others): http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-06-07/who-makes-our-midseason-all-australian-team

The other is Tom Phillips.

For those who are interested, a 50-strong squad was identified earlier in the week. In addition to those 2, it included Grundy, Howe and Treloar: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-06-06/your-clubs-mid-season-all-australians

Just quietly, I don't think Fyfe will present too much Brownlow competition for Sidey this year.


A fair representation for us but considering that these writers don't actually select the actual side when it counts then really it's just an opinion based article
Interesting you forgot to mention that one of your all time favourites who is no longer a pie in Dayne Beams made the list along with 3 other lions
Pendles could consider himself unlucky not to get named IMO
As for Fyfe he's going to be leading the vote at some stage but it won't make any difference now
As for Sidey's chances to win Charlie I think the likes of Phillips Grundy Howe Pendles Trelaor will consistently take votes off him along with players like JDG Stephenson Thomas and alike when they have the best game winning performances
We have to many players who are playing well most weeks to have a winner among our squad
Sidey will likley get close to his career high voting from last season and may beat that number (14 wasn't it ?) but won't gain enough votes to win it
IMO Grundy should have polled the most votes by a pie at this stage of the season but he seems not to attract to much attention in voting for some reason

I mentioned all the Collingwood players in the Afl.com.au "staff writers" team. I thought it would be unkind of me to say that Sidey got in "ahead, it should be noted, of Selwood, Dangerfield and Beams" - but you're right, of course, to observe that Beams didn't make it, either.
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